2011 to 2013 - the coming world depression ?

It's always good to look at these post's, just to make sure i'm on the right track,what do you think;) property still cracking,ASX still in top shape what do think next will happen..good luck willair
 
willair said:
It's always good to look at these post's, just to make sure i'm on the right track,what do you think;) property still cracking,ASX still in top shape what do think next will happen..good luck willair
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Mate, I'm starting to understand the life of a gazelle on the Serengeti. LIfe's great, just as long as you are one step ahead of the lions. LOL
 
Peter Spann said:
Hate to have to post and run but I am off to Italy for a month for my 40th Birthday party at the end of next week and everybody in my office has just realsied I am leaving in one week and have dumped a year's worth of work on my desk for me to do.

See you on the other side of 40!!!
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Peter,
Happy birthday

Are you taking your loving wife and kids with you?
 
Could someone explain to me in laymans terms what a "cash cycle" is?

Peter Spann said there is a property cycle (been there done that), a shares cycle (currently in there), and a cash cycle (the bit I don't know much about).

Is there a period in recent history which clearly illustrates the cash cycle? How long does it usually last?
 
Sunfish said:
Mate, I'm starting to understand the life of a gazelle on the Serengeti. LIfe's great, just as long as you are one step ahead of the lions. LOL
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Hiya,

Almost. As a gazelle, life's great in the Serengeti as long as you are one step ahead of at least one other gazelle. ;)

Cheers

James.
 
SMH : Great Depression fall looms

Interesting article from todays SMH...

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/great-depression-fall-looms/2007/06/25/1182623823367.html

'THE risk of a 1930s-style economic slump has been heightened by "euphoric" markets tapping cheap global credit, one of the world's pre-eminent financial institutions has said.

In its annual report the Bank for International Settlements noted that the conditions which led up to the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Asian crises in the 1990s were reflected in the current environment...'

So... who's worried? Would a global depression necessarily affect Australian property markets, or would our underlying demand for property ensure prices don't plummet? People still need somewhere to live, right?
 
interesting... the problem with staying out of a rampaging market tho is not just a small amount of lost opportuntiy - it is a HUGE amount of lost opportunity. I remember in 2002 when doomsdayers were shouting that the Perth property market had peaked and to wait and pick up a bargain. this little pearler probably cost a lot of people their dream of home ownership. Similarly I have been out of the sharemarket so long now that I hav well and truly missed the boat. ultimately tho what do you do... sit around and wait for the next economoc disaster? I could be an old man by then. so should I take a leap of faith and margin loan up?

there is no easy answer but I think you have to keep an even keel and move onwards with a positive frame of mind. there seem to be bulls and bears all thru the woods
 
Ausprop said:
interesting... the problem with staying out of a rampaging market tho is not just a small amount of lost opportuntiy - it is a HUGE amount of lost opportunity. I remember in 2002 when doomsdayers were shouting that the Perth property market had peaked and to wait and pick up a bargain. this little pearler probably cost a lot of people their dream of home ownership. Similarly I have been out of the sharemarket so long now that I hav well and truly missed the boat. ultimately tho what do you do... sit around and wait for the next economoc disaster? I could be an old man by then. so should I take a leap of faith and margin loan up?

there is no easy answer but I think you have to keep an even keel and move onwards with a positive frame of mind. there seem to be bulls and bears all thru the woods
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And I am STILL participating in a thread entitled 'Property prices set to stagnate for years' on another forum (yes I'm a forum addict) from September 2005! There are these chicken littles who keep the thread alive by posting the latest doom n gloom article from the newspaper and disregard any real world price feedback. The chicken littles own no property themselves. If you dance for rain long enough you will eventually get wet though.

That information would have been toxic to my wealth if I had acted on it when it first appeared.

It's a fascinating study in human psychology.
 
oc1 said:
Brenda Irwin said:
Could someone explain to me in laymans terms what a "cash cycle" is?
When interest rates go higher and higher so does the rate you get for your money when you park it in say term deposits (even ING account). While assets tend to lose value in this period your cash is protected earning a higher rate. e.g. late 80's

Oscar
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Bear with me (or bare with me :O ), as I'm also learning about cash cycle... is this the right understanding?

If IR=high,
money->bank instead of shares relatively,
money doesnt go to property as repayments high
bear market
buy undervalued property and shares

If IR=low,
money->shares + property
bull market
hold
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Click to expand...
 
Ausprop said:
interesting... the problem with staying out of a rampaging market tho is not just a small amount of lost opportuntiy - it is a HUGE amount of lost opportunity.... Similarly I have been out of the sharemarket so long now that I hav well and truly missed the boat. ultimately tho what do you do... sit around and wait for the next economoc disaster? I could be an old man by then. so should I take a leap of faith and margin loan up?
Click to expand...
Ausprop,

I agree completely!!

Fear that leads to inaction is the absolute biggest killer of wealth creation. A year and a half ago when I first bought up big in my Navra fund of ASX200 stocks every man and his dog on this forum tried to talk me out of it. I got arguments from "the ASX is peaked" to "that's a crap fund". But despite all the negativity I bought up big and have only increased my holdings since.

This was in October 2005 and the ASX was already well underway in its current growth cycle. But I had enough information to see that the fundamentals driving this growth were increased earnings and that PERs were within historical bounds and were in fact still cheap.

If I had listened to the "those earnings projections are false and the stock prices will crash" camp, then I'd have foregone a huge amount of growth over the last 18 months. I think I calculated that my profits after interest costs thus far is in the $100K+ range. That may not seem much to a lot of people here, but I'm far happier having that cash in my pocket than not. Pretty good for 18 months work and not lifting a finger I reckon.

As to where to from here? Who can tell... But I'm comfortable enough with the fundamentals driving the market that I'm staying long on my ASX exposure. I currently hold $800K worth of stock entirely with borrowed dollars (OPM). Every now and again I get a bit nervous about this exposure, but for now, I'm riding this bull for all its worth. I don't think we've started to see the euphoria yet that typically heralds the end of a bull run, but that's just my opinion.

Cheers mate,
Michael.
 
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