I don't know about that one,this time last year the cash rate was 7.25% today it's 3%
because of ongoing uncertainty and weak fundamentals
,oil us a barrell one year ago was $112.00 now it's in the low 70$$$ range
same
10 year bonds are not much different 5.9 down to 5.6
- Aussie 10yr 12 mths ago 6.2% (14mths ago 6.7%), now 5.5%
- US TNX 12 mths ago 3.86, now 3.46
- 12 mths ago the yield curve was inverted. today it isn't. so the relationship between the cash rate and bond yields was different to today's environment.
,gold up from $792.00 -one year ago $950.00,and with that room to move the rates may go up a lot quicker that most think imho, this time last year the ASX was in the 5039 range,,willair..
I am not ruling out rate rises. Glenn Stevens' rhetoric, especially that 3% is an emergency level, underscores that.
Nevertheless, with projected negative real gdp growth and property prices at today's levels, I doubt the average Aussie cash rate over the next 3 years will be >=5.5%.
I've never been any good at precise forecasting,but it can only go 2 ways from this stage,if you listened to some punters Gold was going to be above $2000 an once,and the ASX was going into the low 2500 mark
your portfolio would have been hammered sideways if you went down that path, i still think it's going to be a slow upward trend from this stage,but that can change overnight..imho willair.
The $2000 an ounce calls weren't unrealistic considering the unprecedented nature of what was happening. Who would have thought the Aussie cash rate would drop to 3%....certainly not the Somersofters who fixed in 2008.