A 100% Predictive Indicator of Capital Gain?

[hobo-jo]

I rarely bring up Gold (on Somersoft) unless prompted (as you did in this thread).

I'd hardly call my views on property doom and gloom. I would say on a national level there is perhaps another 10-15% downside over a few years as the mining boom unwinds and pushes the economy into recession. Suggesting we see a natural part of the business cycle is all it takes to bring out the perms-optimists with their 'doom & gloom' catchphrase.

 

[JenJen]

The best book I have read in terms of understanding trends and indicators is 'Mastering the Australian Housing Market' by John Lindeman, former head of research at Residex.

Also, in relation to the queries about historical data, you might find this interesting info about Residex found via http://www.onthehouse.com.au/onthehouse_holdings/.

"Residex is dedicated to providing quality information on the real estate market to government, financial institutions, valuers, real estate agents, accountants, solicitors and individuals.

The company collects data from various Government Departments and Real Estate Agencies. The data is compiled into a unique database and today Residex would have information on almost every house in Australia.

The age of the data varies, for example Residex holds data in Victoria as far back as 1865 and constructs indices from that date to today. In New South Wales, Residex holds data as far back as 1901 and Residex generates indices from that date. In other states the data extends typically back to the 1980's.

The unique Residex database cannot be matched by any public or private organisation in terms of accessible historical data and completeness.

Residex provides information on all aspects of the real estate market, not just relating to price, but also rental yield, growth in prices, analysis of market movements, mortgage design, financial transaction structuring, raising and placing of funding facilities, loan risk profiles, statistical consulting, price estimation and research.

The company is consultant and adviser to state and federal governments on housing related issues including the development of financial instruments to provide funding for housing needs."

Cheers
Jen

 

[redwing]

I have owned property in the past, I will own property again in the future. Gold has "crashed" to a level that it was at in mid 2011. Much of the Australian real estate market is still lower than the peak in early 2010.

If we can make a correct call on what will rise in the future (whatever the asset) we'll all be happy

 

[MTR]

I have lived through many real estate cycles, going back a few decades. One thing I have noticed over the years (both in Australia and overseas) is that when the total number of houses for sale in a particular city is falling, prices will generally rise. This much is common sense and is hardly rocket science.

For example, when supply dried up in Perth back in 2006, prices rose massively. Clearly, a massive shortage of supply led to rising prices. When supply increased (circ 2008) prices became stagnant for a few years.

Does anyone know where we can get updated graphs of this sort of data for major cities in Australia? Ideally, a graph with data going back 20 years will be more useful than something that goes back just a few months.

If anyone can post updated 20 year historical charts of the above for all major cities, you would be doing us all a good turn.

Hi one world
Interesting thread.

Just want to clarify the Perth cycle you mentioned above, property boom was from 2001- 2006 where it crashed late 2006 early 2007, this boom cycle was a mother of all mother's lasting 5 years, unheard of, not to mention that during this period CIP, industrial properties were also booming.

Been a long time between drinks, some 7 years, the Perth market started to rise again in early 2012.



MTR

 

[stargazer]

Hi all

If i recall correctly i think Peter Spann in one of his books showed how to arrive at a reasonable predictive time to enter. Can't remember the details if i find the book i will let you know if interested.

regards
SG

 

[atti]

Hi all

If i recall correctly i think Peter Spann in one of his books showed how to arrive at a reasonable predictive time to enter. Can't remember the details if i find the book i will let you know if interested.

regards
SG

so it is good time time to buy right now ?