Newbies don't know that.
As boring as listening to the same habitually negative swipe at property post after post after post after post... ??
All that D&G
- Thread starter Francesco
- Start date
Newbies don't know that.
As boring as listening to the same habitually negative swipe at property post after post after post after post... ??
I'm glad Christopher Joyce put that in print. He will look all the more stupid as it all falls apart. His arguments are old - they were used in the USA and the UK as it turned.
Mate,
You've been posting for a while now and you're smarter than that. To run the "it was the same in the USA" argument now just comes across as ill informed. I know you're smarter than that because you've been around for a while and I've read your posts...
Cheers,
Michael
Thanks for the comment seems I haven't lost much, to me S. Keen is getting quite boring and not really able to go to these programs with new ideas and new data to back up his statements.
For example he could have replyed to Mellor when he compare the population growth with data about the occupancy rate that in Japan is nearly at 2.7 persons per home and in Australia at 2.4. Or that the average home in Japan is 95 sqm (I don't know how much is in Australia but for sure is more then that). Mellor then would probably have replyed with Cultural differences and size aging population in Japan and so on, definetly a more interesting boxing debate...
Why does it matter? I'm an investor. I have been up too many dry gullies to believe in "The Answer".
To piss in each other's pocket so that everyone gets a warm feeling does nothing for me but over half the posts here could be described thus.
You run the site Sim, so what percentage of "members" are active? Where are the rest (>95% methinks)? Have you ever undertaken any research on why they have left?
It must be over six years since Thommo joined and in that time the "common wisdom" on this site has "evolved" to put it nicely. Back then all the gurus were telling us newbies:
1/ Cap gain is IT and that only happens in Syd. (No I'm not exaggerating!) Seechange was the only high profile member investing in regional centers and when I mentioned Townsville the idea was pooh poohed. So too was Perth. Clearly that has changed but I have never noticed a retraction. Or did they just go broke and go home?
2/ Forget rental return. Refer point 1. Lately everyone is saying they are in res property for the return. Make up your mind.
3/ Go for broke. Borrow 100% if you can and make a fortune on OPM. I think that idea faded when interest rates rose in the last few years but clearly many went down that path. I remember polls a few years ago when over 50% admitted to having LVRs over 80% and many over 90%. But today everyone is boasting of being CF +ve and having low LVRs. Are these the same members or is this churn? Have those that didn't make it gone on to GPHC or Hotcopper?
Sim, I am not always right and have admitted that when my share investments went sour and I may have no real reason to question PI but this site needs a Devil's Advocate or two. You (the family) should not treat us so badly. We just may be right.
That will never be admitted though because those who get stung will just fold their tent and slink away into the sunset, as so many have done already.By SS standards, I'm not a property investor, I suppose. (For the record I own more property than some here) But you won't ban me for that will you?
Thanks for the comment seems I haven't lost much, to me S. Keen is getting quite boring and not really able to go to these programs with new ideas and new data to back up his statements.
For example he could have replyed to Mellor when he compare the population growth with data about the occupancy rate that in Japan is nearly at 2.7 persons per home and in Australia at 2.4. Or that the average home in Japan is 95 sqm (I don't know how much is in Australia but for sure is more then that). Mellor then would probably have replyed with Cultural differences and size aging population in Japan and so on, definetly a more interesting boxing debate...
Hi Boz
Yes, it is a bit disappointing that SK has not answered his critics (eg Mellor or Joyce) if he has done his econometrics and multivariate analysis instead of giving the impression of 'trust me'.
By the way, I can see that cultural differences account for the property sizes and density but what about prices and especially ratios (price/income)? From cultural and western liberal values (demand factors), Australia probably has more dual income families, more independent household formations and ergonomically require larger houses, which point to relatively more expensive houses in Australia.
Yes, you are right, there are difference, no doubt, probably even the requirement in Japan to be Earthquake proof would have an impact on sully and demand. There could have been a bit of fight on Japan but after all they would have to go back and focus on australia fundamentals. And all these prediction are just possible scenario. I could go on for 1 hour talking about differences between Japan and Australia but weather we could end up with bad deflation like they did or we could get out from it very quickly with high inflation or even implode like Iceland who knows? By the way in iceland mortgage are about 18% now and recession is forecast at 9%. In Iceland was good to own a house but outright, not having a mortgage on it. Who had money deposited in banks or shares has lost nearly everything.Hi Boz
Yes, it is a bit disappointing that SK has not answered his critics (eg Mellor or Joyce) if he has done his econometrics and multivariate analysis instead of giving the impression of 'trust me'.
By the way, I can see that cultural differences account for the property sizes and density but what about prices and especially ratios (price/income)? From cultural and western liberal values (demand factors), Australia probably has more dual income families, more independent household formations and ergonomically require larger houses, which point to relatively more expensive houses in Australia.
Thommo joined on 14 January 2004.
G'day Mark.
You still in NZ? What's your views of the recession over there? I was there briefly in October, and the place seemed little different to me, although I heard some of the big property developments were slashing prices.
Could give an insight into what will happen over here?
See ya's.
Yeah, still in NZ.
Personally, I think the recession is being overplayed a bit too much by some people (lots of economic hypochondria / little actual pain), but it is all about confidence (as it is anywhere).
NZ was hit pretty bad with it's own sub-prime crisis (25+ finance companies have collapsed so far) and finance is now tighter than a fish's backside.
Some are predicting the recession will break in Q1 2009, others later in the year (I think later in 2009, myself). But I dont think this recession will bear much resemblance to the last one (either in NZ or Australia) in terms of seeing massive increases in unemployment (I say that because the 1992 recession was exacerbated by structural reform in the economy).
We got a new government a few weeks back, which I was really pleased about. Firstly because I think all government's reach their use-by dates after 8-10 years, and secondly because the NZ Labour Party was becoming increasingly socialist. John Key will focus more on encouraging people to grow the pie, rather than redistributing it differently. It also might be the catalyst for some much needed tax reform - we're losing 30,000 people pa to Australia.
Atm, property is dead (I hear signs of a hearbeat do exist, but if I had to characterise it on a nationwide basis it is flatlined). I know some people are positioning themselves for a 2009 buying spree and others buying OTP units now that are not expected to be completed until ~2011 (when they think the property market will really be in full swing again).
Locally (I am in Invercargill), we are not in recession. But we have been hit especially hard by finance company collapses (lots of local investment advisers had lots of client funds invested). Despite some very solid fundamentals (low unemployment, high income, population growth, very good prospects for numerous industries), again confidence is an issue.
Personally, I think the recession is being overplayed a bit too much by some people (lots of economic hypochondria / little actual pain), but it is all about confidence (as it is anywhere).
NZ was hit pretty bad with it's own sub-prime crisis (25+ finance companies have collapsed so far) and finance is now tighter than a fish's backside.
Some are predicting the recession will break in Q1 2009, others later in the year (I think later in 2009, myself). But I dont think this recession will bear much resemblance to the last one (either in NZ or Australia) in terms of seeing massive increases in unemployment (I say that because the 1992 recession was exacerbated by structural reform in the economy).
We got a new government a few weeks back, which I was really pleased about. Firstly because I think all government's reach their use-by dates after 8-10 years, and secondly because the NZ Labour Party was becoming increasingly socialist. John Key will focus more on encouraging people to grow the pie, rather than redistributing it differently. It also might be the catalyst for some much needed tax reform - we're losing 30,000 people pa to Australia.
Atm, property is dead (I hear signs of a hearbeat do exist, but if I had to characterise it on a nationwide basis it is flatlined). I know some people are positioning themselves for a 2009 buying spree and others buying OTP units now that are not expected to be completed until ~2011 (when they think the property market will really be in full swing again).
Locally (I am in Invercargill), we are not in recession. But we have been hit especially hard by finance company collapses (lots of local investment advisers had lots of client funds invested). Despite some very solid fundamentals (low unemployment, high income, population growth, very good prospects for numerous industries), again confidence is an issue.
We're just like the USA! There is no difference!
What happened there must happen here. It just has to! Please crash... please?
Maybe if you clench your fists and focus really hard it might happen!
Cheers,
Shadow.
Sim
Administrator
In my opinion and experience, someone who wants to be a devils advocate is often just looking for a reason to be negative and critical rather than actually adding value to the discussion.
I much prefer constructive criticism, not just criticism. I don't want to be told it can't be done - I want to be told HOW it can be done. There is an assumption there that it can actually be done. Once again I point out that if you believe that it can't be done (building wealth through residential property investment) then I suggest perhaps that this is not the place for you?
By my calculations there are nearly 100 members on the site who have over 1000 posts. Of those top 100 posters (which includes yourself), I'm pretty sure you are the only one who does not consider themselves a property investor.
Which leads to the obvious question. Why are you here ? What is it you hope to gain from posting here ?
We're just like the USA! There is no difference!
What happened there must happen here. It just has to! Please crash... please?
Maybe if you clench your fists and focus really hard it might happen!
Cheers,
Shadow.
SM
The US is different to the UK is different to Spain is different to Iceland is different to Japan is different to New Zealand is different to Australia.
Big deal.
The first question is whether what is common to those markets that brought about varying but significant dislocation to property prices and whether there is evidence that some or all of those factors apply to Australia.
If yes, are there other factors that exist in Australia that did not exist to a material degree in those markets which would protect us.
There is a lot in common in terms of the underpinning drivers (credit driven asset growth, speculation based on unreasonable CG expectations, loosening of credit criteria criteria, debt funding debt) and a fair number of differences (US had sub-prime, UK did not, Spain had overbuilding for non-resident speculators, NZ did not, Iceland has Bjork, Ireland has Bono). That said, we are all now impacted by the GCC.
Things different here and the same here.
The issue is to what extent the former will mitigate the latter.
Could it be because there is not much clarity about where we are in the property cycle, thats leading people to diverging opinions.
I have owned and still own residential investment property. I am still holding it because i cant really be sure either way. Transaction costs of buying and selling residential property coupled with CGT, makes asset timing a very expensive excersise for residential property (in my case i would need my properties to fall by 20-25% odd to justify selling them). Since i can see both
positives:
1) reduced interest rates leading to increased affordability and more importantly increased cash flow for me
especially once i fix my remaining variable interest rate expense2) insufficient supply relative to underlying demand
3) negligible loan areas and default rates compared to the rest of the world, even after a period of higher interest rates.
negatives:
1) nominal property prices have risen very fast over the last 15yrs, faster than the long term trend. I am always weary of an asset class whos nominal value rises too quickly. History has shown that over the long term asset classes always revert to the mean (whilst going through significant over and under shoots during this time).
I am doing nothing, just holding what i have already.
Is property a great get rich slow but with high degree of certaintyopportunity for the average person, definately.
Is it the right time now to allocating new money to residential property as an asset class: I dont know (personally i current favour australian shares as an asset class at this point in time). Will i one day expand my property portfolio, definately, when in my opinion it represents the best asset class again to allocate new savings.
God on Earth, Token Funder, that is actually a really good post! As much as I hate to admit it, I'm going to have to kudo you!!
But don't read into that an underlying support for the premise that prices here are set to crash. My analysis of the different markets suggests that the differences outweigh the similarities. i.e. What sets us apart suggests our market will be less impacted by the GCC than others.
Of course, the GCC hasn't played out in full yet so there is still some unknowns, but my reading of the tea leaves has government regulation/intervention pulling us through "largely" unscathed. It won't be the same unregulated finance industry on the back end of this crisis, but there will still be a credit market of sorts.
Thanks for your comments.
Cheers,
Michael.
PS Bjork and Bono both start with B and AC/DC starts with A, so we are different over here on that count too!
Sim
Administrator
Sure - you don't have to be actively buying to be a property investor, indeed you may even be selling or have liquidated your portfolio while waiting for new opportunities ...
... but if someone never intends to buy real estate ever again and doesn't believe in it as an asset class, that's a very different thing.
TF - you made a funny! Well done.
Thought so!
Not all investors think the property market is in great shape at the moment, but that in no way diminishes their point of view.
The out and out D&G crowd, on the other hand, have very little to offer other than a myopic deluded self-interest in financial armageddon. I'd prefer those folk weren't around bothering the noobs, but I've learnt to spot them from 1000 yards now so apply the auto brain filter. But feel free to ban all the "you evil specufestors are all about to die!" crowd. In fact, knight me Sir Moderator and I'll give you a hand.
Kidding!!Just MHO.
Cheers,
Michael
PS If I'd listened to Thommo, and a few others like him, at the top of the stock market I would be a richer man today...
Thanks Michael. i just tried to find a post on HC where a poster thanked Dub (would be called a D&Ger here, but is, more correctly, a realist) for his warnings. Said that because of him and others he went to cash in '07.
I have spent this year trying to cool the ardor of excited beginners who wanted to jump into the stock market because "the banks are so cheap". I like to think some stopped and had a closer look, but I don't know. Is it this "off topic" theme that has upset Sim? There are people here with more knowledge of property than I so I leave that to them.
I've been tapped on the shoulder and will go. But I can't just do it cold.
