All that D&G

[chilliaa]

Things are never crystal clear in one way or the other.
Drop in commodity prices equals potential drop in inflation
Drop in soft commodities should help profits of food manufacturing.
Lower $AU will help the eductional industry, exporters and Australian companies with offshore businesses.
Drop in oil prices acts like a natural interest rate cut.
Higher unemployment will make it easier for strong companies to hire the staff they want under better commercial terms.

 

[BayView]

gave him one for you ...

But...aren't you married??

 

[Peter 14.7]

But...aren't you married??

3 Guys gave me one as well

Peter

 

[MichaelW]

3 Guys gave me one as well

Peter

Gee, it wasn't thaaaaaat good.

(The post I mean)

Cheers,
Michael

 

[DavidMc]

I remember polls a few years ago when over 50% admitted to having LVRs over 80% and many over 90%. But today everyone is boasting of being CF +ve and having low LVRs. Are these the same members or is this churn? Have those that didn't make it gone on to GPHC or Hotcopper?

I was one of those.

Originally over 90% LVR. Now under 75%. Not CF+ yet though. Close though.

This can easily happen over a few years with equity growth and a little bit of savings.

Yadee yahadeee yahaa, this is the exact type of post that i think the moderators are commenting on.
So whats your SOLUTION? if you are going to give us the scaremongering, then give us the SOLUTION to profit from it.
I repeat, so whats your solution????

There is a lot of bad $hit going on. It has been debated to death.

Here is my solution (in summary):

Given CGT and other selling costs, it's not worth selling unless you think things are going to drop more than 20%. I don't, so I'm just holding on.

 

[lizzie]

Given CGT and other selling costs, it's not worth selling unless you think things are going to drop more than 20%. I don't, so I'm just holding on.

bank just valued our ppor - 20% increase in 2 years - and we only spent 5% of initial value on reno's to date. i'm happy!

and you know how conservative bank vaulers are. doesn't hurt that the neighbours knocked down the old dump of units and are building a flash house instead.

that'll release some cash for our next development site buy.

 

[AUSPROP...]

Sunfish, stick around please. There won't be much to discuss if everyone is sitting around with rose coloured glasses.

 

[BayView]

Sunfish, stick around please. There won't be much to discuss if everyone is sitting around with rose coloured glasses.

I've got rose coloured glasses, and proud of it.

By that, I mean that I am long term optimistic about property. Can't comment on shares, but I guess that given the last 100 years track record, you'd have to say it'll be ok.

As a person looking to start buying shares, the news is all good for me as the market is most likely to go up from here. It may go down a bit still, but if I'm buying near the bottom, using money I can afford to take a loss on, and looking to hold longer term, then you'd have to say this is a good time for people like me.

Too bad if you are 64 and have been in the market for a decent while, hoping to retire on a swag of cap gain from your shares in '09.

I think property in the short term will go very slow.

It is not realistic to think that if the whole world economic stage is tanking, then we won't be affected; we will be.

But, I look at the glass half full side of this equation; the sellers will be more desperate, there will be fewer buyers which means more renters.

So, we are going to have cheaper properties, cheaper interest rates and more renters.

Now, to me, that is a very good equation for a cashflow investor.

If you are a cap gain investor looking for a quick gain, then I suggest you change your strategy and mindset for your next purchase and think longer term, because it will be a while (12 months or so) before properties will go up much in Aus.

So, I don't really listen to D&G.