And a sivver bullett through the head of property D&G vampires

[essence]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=agWGPe2QDTlU&refer=australia

"Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Australian home-loan approvals rose in December by the most in almost nine years as government handouts and the biggest round of interest-rate cuts in almost two decades spurred first-home buyers.

The number of loans granted to build or buy homes and apartments increased 6.4 percent to 52,974 from November, the biggest gain since May 2000, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. The gain was almost double the 3.5 percent median estimate of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. "

Thanks boz for finding this.

Points:

1. Extrapolated annualised growth for home lending is above 76%
2. Economists do not have a clue
3. I do

 

[BoatBoy]

In another publication they even go as far as saying...

First-time home buyers soak up rate cut
Wednesday February 11, 2009, 1:04 pm

First-time home buyers are flooding into the housing market to take advantage of the federal government's increased grants and low mortgage rates, new data suggests.

First-time home buyers made up 25.4 per cent of home loans granted in December, the highest proportion since December 2001 - the height of the last major housing boom.

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/090211/2/24jfv.html

That may be right but...

Dave

 

[essence]

In another publication they even go as far as saying...



http://au.biz.yahoo.com/090211/2/24jfv.html

That may be right but...

Dave

You are absolutely right. "But". But after years of vicious brainwashing by media it is hard to believe your eyes.

 

[Aaron Sice]

height of the last boom - 2001??? i thought it was 2003 for sydney?

in 2001 IRs were stupid low like now and that CAUSED the runaway WA price rises, along with the mining money.

so, if FHBs are back - at the possibly near-lowest point, what does that say?

are we at bottom?

are jobs safe?

is there a solid floor forming (no, i didnt say boom, not everything is boom and bust)?

has it just become evident that houses have overshot on the negative side, leaving bargains galore?

or it's just a time ot buy for suckers?

 

[Witzl]

<tv game show host voice>

all these questions answered and much MUCH more when you tune in 5 years from now on.... "The Property Market"....
*queue TV game show music*

</tv game show host voice>

 

[essence]

height of the last boom - 2001??? i thought it was 2003 for sydney?

in 2001 IRs were stupid low like now and that CAUSED the runaway WA price rises, along with the mining money.

so, if FHBs are back - at the possibly near-lowest point, what does that say?

are we at bottom?

are jobs safe?

is there a solid floor forming (no, i didnt say boom, not everything is boom and bust)?

has it just become evident that houses have overshot on the negative side, leaving bargains galore?

or it's just a time ot buy for suckers?

How many times I need to tell this?

2009 - Unemployment - 4.25%, Cash rate - 3.25%
2010 - Unemployment 7%, Cash rate - 0%

1996 - start of the property boom - Unemployment - 8.7%, rates - 5.6%(ish)

2001(2) -(second installment of property boom) - Unemployment 7.5%, rates 4.25%

What other fundamentals do you need?

 

[Witzl]

i think boomtown was rather trying to suggest that its a little hard to know if things are going to take off, because whilst some indicators are saying "YES", there are other indicators that might suggest "NO".

I kinda of agree.... but im hedging my bets on YES, but not right this instant.

 

[AUSPROP...]

Fat Prophets are hesitantly suggesting equities may have bottomed. Reckon the US will drift side ways for some time but the rest of the world could start to see upside from here on.

 

[BoatBoy]

Fat Prophets are hesitantly suggesting equities may have bottomed. Reckon the US will drift side ways for some time but the rest of the world could start to see upside from here on.

Any chance of a viewing of that info please

Dave

 

[essence]

Fat Prophets are hesitantly suggesting equities may have bottomed. Reckon the US will drift side ways for some time but the rest of the world could start to see upside from here on.

Wishful thinking. Put past earnings into PE calculation - and you will get "fantastic value". Put real earnings (which we still do not have in full) - not so fantastic. Put future earnings in (if company still will be afloat) - what a worthless dung shares are.

Psychologically, you can not call the bottom to share market until last share spruiker is afraid to talk about shares, when people develop disguist to equities.

 

[BV]

I kinda of agree.... but im hedging my bets on YES, but not right this instant.

I agree as well, I think the conditions are right for prices of entry level property, flats etc to increase but I don't know about a boom as such.

There is a lot of fear around atm so investors are skeptical of buying more properties. At the same time unemployment is on the increase and could get really bad.

29 people got retrenched from my work today.
I am ok for now because we are busy but when you see so many people going home on an hours notice you start to worry....

 

[AUSPROP...]

Any chance of a viewing of that info please

Dave

their site seems to be having log in problems and they have a pretty heavy copyright notice at the front. will PM you later with some details. remind me if I forget....

 

[AUSPROP...]

I am not sure personally. There does seem to be a lot more people suggesting the worst may have past.

Wishful thinking. Put past earnings into PE calculation - and you will get "fantastic value". Put real earnings (which we still do not have in full) - not so fantastic. Put future earnings in (if company still will be afloat) - what a worthless dung shares are..

extremely dismissive of some strong companies e.g. BHP

Psychologically, you can not call the bottom to share market until last share spruiker is afraid to talk about shares, when people develop disguist to equities.

sounds like "buy in gloom, sell in boom" or "don't walk under ladders" - something which I wouldn't live my life by. I know plenty of people that hold disgust to equities.

 

[BoatBoy]

their site seems to be having log in problems and they have a pretty heavy copyright notice at the front. will PM you later with some details. remind me if I forget....

Thanks

Dave

 

[Token Funder]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=agWGPe2QDTlU&refer=australia

"Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Australian home-loan approvals rose in December by the most in almost nine years as government handouts and the biggest round of interest-rate cuts in almost two decades spurred first-home buyers.

The number of loans granted to build or buy homes and apartments increased 6.4 percent to 52,974 from November, the biggest gain since May 2000, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. The gain was almost double the 3.5 percent median estimate of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. "

Thanks boz for finding this.

Points:

1. Extrapolated annualised growth for home lending is above 76%
2. Economists do not have a clue
3. I do

Your first point is not support for your third.

 

[essence]

Your first point is not support for your third.

Is that you way to say that you can not use a calculator?

 

[handyandy]

or it's just a time ot buy for suckers?

and they will be hurting in a year or two when they become unemployed.

Cheers

 

[DavidMc]

What's the beef Hahei? You've made 5 posts so far and about 3 of them have been negative/insults.

 

[Nathan]

maybe TF subconcious mind has set up an account and he arguing with himself...

j/ks

 

[Token Funder]

Is that you way to say that you can not use a calculator?

It's my way of saying anyone who claims to have been studying economics for 20 years and then takes one month's figures and forecasts it forward to suggest an increase of 76% in lending volumes over twelve months is suffering from delusions or is a sock puppet.

I hope for your sake it is the latter.