And a sivver bullett through the head of property D&G vampires

[boz]

Are you saying that the ABS are un reliable?

I thought they were the only source of statistics deemed reliable and suitable by the bear camp.

Maybe some RPData, ANZ, Westpac or Rismark would be better if they are available

no, abs is reliable,
haven't see that graph on ABS website (not really that I have look for it). Shadow hasn't supply the link for the chart and/or the data to plot it. But he is probably right anyway that a swing in data of home loans is very significant/unique in a downturn of that magnitude.

 

[rastus2]

History shows that the first small uptick in housing finance after a sharp decline is always a precursor to an extended period of further growth. After a sharp decline (such as we have seen over recent months), this indicator has never ticked upwards only to resume falling back again - once it starts moving up, it continues to do so for a long time. This is a very bullish signal for property.

Of course, maybe it's different this time...

Cheers,

Shadow.

Always ?

Your graph does not seem to show Always Shadow... pls repost one that shows the extended timeline back into (always) history and into the (always) future.
(Or you could just correct your claim with a ... "from my limited dataset" caveat )

The problem with generalizations like these is that some poor greater fool will believe them and buy into a dead cat bounce.

 

[essence]

no, abs is reliable,
haven't see that graph on ABS website (not really that I have look for it). Shadow hasn't supply the link for the chart and/or the data to plot it. But he is probably right anyway that a swing in data of home loans is very significant/unique in a downturn of that magnitude.

I could not explain better than it was said in the "The Bank" movie about chaos theory. "It is impossible to predict what one idiot will do tomorrow but it is relatively easy topredict what crowd will do".

Technical analysis in shares it is some basic form of prediction of what crowd is going to do. Same principles apply to analysis of any crowds.

In technical terms that graph shows that we are at the end of "double top" - which means we have done with downside, and we see classic "double bottom" has formed - which means the only way from here is up.

 

[Shadow]

Always ?

Your graph does not seem to show Always Shadow... pls repost one that shows the extended timeline back into (always) history and into the (always) future.
(Or you could just correct your claim with a ... "from my limited dataset" caveat )

The problem with generalizations like these is that some poor greater fool will believe them and buy into a dead cat bounce.

Clutching at straws maybe? The chart goes back to 1975. In all six of the previous six major finance downturn events over 34 years, the first uptick has been a precursor to an extended period of growth. Now we're at number seven.

(If you've got some older data, then please produce it. The ABS data series only goes back to 1975).

Cheers,

Shadow.

 

[Shadow]

Shadow hasn't supply the link for the chart and/or the data to plot it. But he is probably right anyway that a swing in data of home loans is very significant/unique in a downturn of that magnitude.

Source data: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/5609.0Dec 2008?OpenDocument

 

[MichaelW]

More in today's SMH:

Housing shines amid more economic gloom

Don't forget that the market moves based largely on sentiment. This sort of article will feed the positive sentiment around property as a safe haven. There's a lot of burnt share investors out there looking for a safe haven for their investment dollars. And with fixed interest rates on bank deposits halving from 8% to 4% odd, cash is not looking so rosey any more either.

I wouldn't be surprised if this was the beginning of the up-tick in resi property. The RBA will have to hold rates down for a while to stimulate the broader economy, and in doing so give a free kick to resi property.

Time will tell, but I think we've found our floor. Of course, lag stats will report the falling medians in months to come, but they're always a few months lag.

Cheers,
Michael

 

[csc]

Honestly some of you posters live in fairyland if you think the housing market bottom is already here............

I dont know if I should laugh or feel sorry for you.

The market is going to keep trending down in price for quite some time yet..that i have no doubt............

The momentum is down not up.....and that wont be changing until investors start to come back into the market especially for speculative buying.........

Two years or so before any major reversal or bottom out in my opinion....

If you think otherwise then good luck..

 

[manderson]

The momentum is down not up.....and that wont be changing until investors start to come back into the market especially for speculative buying.........

..

Really? the bottom end seems to have a floor under it now with buyers- those sellers will look at living where? maybe the next house up a level, and with the BDI on the up, copper on the rise, both idicators of a recovery and low interest rates it would look like a sign for some.

ABS figures has investor numbers as well, so there are signs of investors starting to come back into the market, its got to start somewhere

 

[Shadow]

The momentum is down not up.....and that wont be changing until investors start to come back into the market especially for speculative buying.........

The investors have already started coming back, as evidenced by the ABS finance figures. You will note that many investors on this forum are buying or planning to buy. I certainly am.

 

[BV]

The RBA will have to hold rates down for a while to stimulate the broader economy, and in doing so give a free kick to resi property.
Michael

Michael

I agree. Property is what keeps the economy going.
Governments collect taxes, builders and trades people have work, people buy things for their houses, so there is heaps of employment linked to property.
Therefore, if the RBA want to restart the economy they will have to do it with property not without it.

cheers

 

[essence]

Honestly some of you posters live in fairyland if you think the housing market bottom is already here............

I dont know if I should laugh or feel sorry for you.

The market is going to keep trending down in price for quite some time yet..that i have no doubt............

The momentum is down not up.....and that wont be changing until investors start to come back into the market especially for speculative buying.........

Two years or so before any major reversal or bottom out in my opinion....

If you think otherwise then good luck..

I am not honouring you with the answer, I am just advising you to stop smoking that stuff.

 

[ILoveProperty]

Shadow.

This is the most beautiful graph I've seen in a long time. Thank you Shadow.

I can see the property spruikers quoting this one over the next few months.

 

[steveadl]

The market is going to keep trending down in price for quite some time yet..that i have no doubt............

The momentum is down not up.....and that wont be changing until investors start to come back into the market especially for speculative buying.........

Jeez, lucky no one has told my properties that - they've still been trending up this whole time. Guess I'm just lucky.