And a sivver bullett through the head of property D&G vampires

[Token Funder]

maybe TF subconcious mind has set up an account and he arguing with himself...

j/ks

I'd like to think my subconscious mind would do a better job

 

[nonrecourse]

Just a wee bit from the other side of the ledger so it balances

http://www.crikey.com.au/Business/20090209-Rental-yields-a-fools-gold-but-dont-tell-the-AFR.html

 

[rastus2]

I am not sure personally. There does seem to be a lot more people suggesting the worst may have past.



extremely dismissive of some strong companies e.g. BHP



sounds like "buy in gloom, sell in boom" or "don't walk under ladders" - something which I wouldn't live my life by. I know plenty of people that hold disgust to equities.

There were a lot more people doing more than suggesting that the worst was over about 6 months ago....
The more people who insist it's bottomed... the less I believe it... especially when I am yet to see real pain in the community.

Perhaps some time late this year, or 2010 we *might* see a real bottom... have to see real capitulation beforehand IMHO.

 

[essence]

It's my way of saying anyone who claims to have been studying economics for 20 years and then takes one month's figures and forecasts it forward to suggest an increase of 76% in lending volumes over twelve months is suffering from delusions or is a sock puppet.

I hope for your sake it is the latter.

So, you can not use calculator. That's pity. Calculator can tell you much more truth than voices in your head.

 

[essence]

Just a wee bit from the other side of the ledger so it balances

http://www.crikey.com.au/Business/20090209-Rental-yields-a-fools-gold-but-dont-tell-the-AFR.html

It does not. First, there is nobody more useless in terms of PI than RPData. Don't even start me on this - I can talk for days.

Second - do you know who Adam Schwab is? Then google "largest on-line share broker in the USA".

If you want to buy the bovine excrement "property sucks - look at fantastic PE ratios for shares" - you would be better off getting drunk.

BTW, you are loosing time you shall be spending selling your commercial property. In 6 month it will be worthless.

 

[yieldmatters]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=agWGPe2QDTlU&refer=australia

"Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Australian home-loan approvals rose in December by the most in almost nine years as government handouts and the biggest round of interest-rate cuts in almost two decades spurred first-home buyers.

The number of loans granted to build or buy homes and apartments increased 6.4 percent to 52,974 from November, the biggest gain since May 2000, the statistics bureau said in Sydney today. The gain was almost double the 3.5 percent median estimate of 16 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. "

Thanks boz for finding this.

Points:

1. Extrapolated annualised growth for home lending is above 76%
2. Economists do not have a clue
3. I do

It was well above 60,000 through 2007. So I wouldn't get excited by 52,974. The only "good" statistic is the month on month growth - great for journalists looking for a headline - useless to anybody else as it is growth from a low base.

In fact it must be sort of dissapointing to those that thought the government freebies would have a big effect - it's fairly small and most of it is simply brought forward demand.

 

[essence]

and they will be hurting in a year or two when they become unemployed.

Cheers

I guess it would be unconstitutional to require from all people to be smart. That's OK, I will repeat once more:

2009 - Unemployment - 4.25%, Cash rate - 3.25%
2010 - Unemployment 7%, Cash rate - 0%

1996 - start of the property boom - Unemployment - 8.7%, rates - 5.6%(ish)

2001(2) -(second installment of property boom) - Unemployment 7.5%, rates 4.25%

Still did not get it?

Ok.

2009 - Unemployment - 4.25%, Cash rate - 3.25%
2010 - Unemployment 7%, Cash rate - 0%

1996 - start of the property boom - Unemployment - 8.7%, rates - 5.6%(ish)

2001(2) -(second installment of property boom) - Unemployment 7.5%, rates 4.25%

 

[Token Funder]

So, you can not use calculator. That's pity. Calculator can tell you much more truth than voices in your head.

And you appear unable to use the indefinite article.

My point is simple - taking one month's worth of results and then suggesting that by extrapolating that result forward 12 months you are making some sort of sane estimate of credit commitments growth over the period is delusional.

I think you're a nutter.

 

[Shadow]

It was well above 60,000 through 2007. So I wouldn't get excited by 52,974. The only "good" statistic is the month on month growth - great for journalists looking for a headline - useless to anybody else as it is growth from a low base.

In fact it must be sort of dissapointing to those that thought the government freebies would have a big effect - it's fairly small and most of it is simply brought forward demand.

History shows that the first small uptick in housing finance after a sharp decline is always a precursor to an extended period of further growth. After a sharp decline (such as we have seen over recent months), this indicator has never ticked upwards only to resume falling back again - once it starts moving up, it continues to do so for a long time. This is a very bullish signal for property.

Of course, maybe it's different this time...

Source data: http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/5609.0Dec 2008?OpenDocument

Cheers,

Shadow.

 

[essence]

And you appear unable to use the indefinite article.

My point is simple - taking one month's worth of results and then suggesting that by extrapolating that result forward 12 months you are making some sort of sane estimate of credit commitments growth over the period is delusional.

I think you're a nutter.

Tell you the secret - I can not use the definite one too. I just place them randomly where the word seems to be a noun. I speak four other languages and none of them has anything even that remotely useless as English articles.

Besides - if you try to formulate a rule of using them - it will take you at least 3 pages. Abundance of rules - it is definition of an anarchy.

And I taught maths and statistics in Uni, so do not worry - I know how to extrapolate. I use simplest linear method intentionally - so even you can understand.

 

[essence]

History shows that the first small uptick in housing finance after a sharp decline is always a precursor to an extended period of further growth. After a sharp decline (such as we have seen over recent months), this indicator has never ticked upwards only to resume falling back again - once it starts moving up, it continues to do so for a long time. This is a very bullish signal for property.

Of course, maybe it's different this time...

Cheers,

Shadow.

Although it is absolutely right, explanation is a bit complicated - definitely not for those who learnt economy from news.com. Simpler - get the ruler - try to folow the graph. You will see where macro trend goes.

 

[warmed_cockles]

Of course, maybe it's different this time...

Haha mate. You can't roll your eyes at that rubbish when you use it every damn time.

 

[nonrecourse]

It does not. First, there is nobody more useless in terms of PI than RPData. Don't even start me on this - I can talk for days.

Second - do you know who Adam Schwab is? Then google "largest on-line share broker in the USA".

If you want to buy the bovine excrement "property sucks - look at fantastic PE ratios for shares" - you would be better off getting drunk.

BTW, you are loosing time you shall be spending selling your commercial property. In 6 month it will be worthless.

Eski Your spelling of the word losing is typical of septic tanks (yanks) who spell it loosing because of their dreadful public education system which now seems to be occuring here too

I know your an aussie because you have a chip on your shoulder about what you perceive is a tall poppy. Thats what happens when you run your commercial businesses in cyber space.

 

[nonrecourse]

Tell you the secret - I can not use the definite one too. I just place them randomly where the word seems to be a noun. I speak four other languages and none of them has anything even that remotely useless as English articles.

Besides - if you try to formulate a rule of using them - it will take you at least 3 pages. Abundance of rules - it is definition of an anarchy.

And I taught maths and statistics in Uni, so do not worry - I know how to extrapolate. I use simplest linear method intentionally - so even you can understand.

Ahhh that explains it your a teacher no wonder you can't spell and your a fiscal pygmy gotcha now I understand

 

[essence]

Eski Your spelling of the word losing is typical of septic tanks (yanks) who spell it loosing because of their dreadful public education system which now seems to be occuring here too

I know your an aussie because you have a chip on your shoulder about what you perceive is a tall poppy. Thats what happens when you run your commercial businesses in cyber space.

My spelling is perfect. My typing sucks. Thanks. Take care of yourself so I do not have to take care of you.

 

[essence]

Ahhh that explains it your a teacher no wonder you can't spell and your a fiscal pygmy gotcha now I understand

Sorry to rain on your parade mate, you don't understand nothing. Those who unerstand do not invest into commercial property. And you are getting drunk too easy.

 

[DavidMc]

Ahhh that explains it your a teacher no wonder you can't spell and your a fiscal pygmy gotcha now I understand

It's 'you're'. Normally, who cares about spelling/grammar on an online forum, but after you've just corrected someone on it, you should get it right yourself. BTW 'loosing' is a pet peeve of mine too. Along with 'asking for advise'.

Sorry to rain on your parade mate, you don't understand nothing.

Hmmm... doesn't understand nothing. So, he understands? Good to see everybody getting along now.

 

[boz]

History shows that the first small uptick in housing finance after a sharp decline is always a precursor to an extended period of further growth. After a sharp decline (such as we have seen over recent months), this indicator has never ticked upwards only to resume falling back again - once it starts moving up, it continues to do so for a long time. This is a very bullish signal for property.

Of course, maybe it's different this time...

Cheers,

Shadow.

Interesting point Shadow, not sure the graph is reliable.
In any case this time is different in the way that we had interest rates cut in so much short time frame that it never happened before, on top of that government throw bils$ to first home owner (I don't think all thiis happened before).
You have to look at the big picture and that is not good, specially in the way builders will struggle more to get financing and will be expensive to hold on on undeveloped sites. For sure the government and RBA actions did have impact and this news is very important for the building industry (but someone on this forum already pointed out that builder where getting busier a couple of months ago). I still don't believe the data coming out today will have impact on home prices on the medium-long term, at most would help to put a floor on the homes in fringe of cities

 

[essence]

It's 'you're'. Normally, who cares about spelling/grammar on an online forum, but after you've just corrected someone on it, you should get it right yourself. BTW 'loosing' is a pet peeve of mine too. Along with 'asking for advise'.



Hmmm... doesn't understand nothing. So, he understands? Good to see everybody getting along now.

I meant I am not an idiot he thinks he is.

 

[manderson]

Interesting point Shadow, not sure the graph is reliable.

Are you saying that the ABS are un reliable?

I thought they were the only source of statistics deemed reliable and suitable by the bear camp.

Maybe some RPData, ANZ, Westpac or Rismark would be better if they are available