ATTN Stingray

[andrew_de_a]

Hi there, unless you have posted this else where, would you mind giving me brief rundown on your investment background and current situation.

You have come onto these forums like a man possessed without any of us really knowing your situation.

Cheers

The stage is yours..........

 

[stingray]

I own my own home outright, have had a couple of investment properties in the past but sold out for good profits in 2004 and 2005 because I thought the Sydney market was severely overvalued. In that time, The Sydney area has corrected about 15% in real terms by being relatively flat for about 4 1/2 years. I was quite shocked to see what has happened to the rest of Australia in the past few years. It is not a case of being jelous of what other people have acheived (I congratulate PI's who have held their nerve and wish them the very best). I just cannot believe how high house prices have become around Australia, and I fear that their is going to be heavy price that we are going to have to pay for this bubble. I will not bore you with what I see as the consequences, but the best case scenario would be that the bubble somehow deflates slowly over the next 10 years and it would really help if we somehow get some serious inflation again (say 6-8% inflation for 4 or 5 would really help to moderate the pain). It looks like the opposite will happen in the near term and we will get deflation. And I cannot see median wages going up very much over the next few years, which is not going to help. Yes, I am bearish, please forgive me. I am not out to insult anyone.

 

[ffc1883_1996]

...I am not out to insult anyone.

Oh I think you are. If not, why did you post this on a property investor website? Very rude indeed.

 

[sash]

Interesting....did you make money on the ones you sold?

I am bearish.....but only in the short term...however...I also intend to buy. Why do you think wages are going backwards? Indications to date show that wage increases were over 4%....

As for the Specufesters comments....quite a few on this site.....LOL. Better be careful....because a few might say "get a rope" just like the old Westerns.... .......LOL!!!

I own my own home outright, have had a couple of investment properties in the past but sold out for good profits in 2004 and 2005 because I thought the Sydney market was severely overvalued.

And I cannot see median wages going up very much over the next few years, which is not going to help. Yes, I am bearish, please forgive me. I am not out to insult anyone.

 

[stingray]

Sash,
Yes, I made good profits on the ones I sold. And yes, I better be careful with my choice of words around here.
Wages have gone up strongly over the past 15 years and in particular the last 5 years they have gone up by around 30% from (in aggregate). This wages growth was the highest in the OECD (developed world). This rate of wages growthis unsustainable for develoed economy. Particulary an economy like Australia as we are mainly a services company with a bit of agriculture and resources. A lot of things that were fuelling this wages growth have now subsided (commodities boom, financial boom, service industries, low unemployment etc). Add to this the fact that we may go into recession (I think this is a given actually), unemployment will be going up, this will create a much more competetive playing field for potential employees and will put the advantage back into the Employers court. Add to this, the fact that inflation is likely to be gong down in the near term, I feel that wages growth will be little to non existent in the next few years. In fact I would not be surprised if 'real' wages go backwards a little bit compared to CPI like it did in the 70's and 80's at various stages. Everything goes through cycles, even 'wages'.

 

[sash]

Wages became an issue due to our strong dollar which at one point almost reached parity with the US$....at about 98 cents.

Things are different today...as we are now at 66 cents. This means our labour has effectively become cheaper by 30% in just 6 months. So I don't quite see how are wages are inflated....our neighbours in Asia - Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong are better paid.

Also, wages are not important as productivity. Just look at countries like Switzerland and Netherlands.

Finally, wages will continue to be high in the Knowledge Industries. But personally, I working for a living in your 20's and 30's is great as your pay vs return is the greatest. In your 40s and 50s you are the most exposed in terms of retrenchment as you are paid highly and it will take time to get another job at the same level...particularly in times like this.

That is why I rate developing my property passive income highly.

Sash,
Yes I better be careful with my choice of words. Wages have gone up strongly over the past 15 years and in particular the last 5 years they have gone up by around 30% from (in aggregate). This wage growth was the highest in the OECD (developed world). This is almost a bit of a bubble on its own as we are mainly a services company with a bit of agriculture and resources.

 

[Sunfish]

So why has Stingray been banned? Apart from using the word "specufestors" I can find nothing he said particularly controversial.

 

[evand]

He's not saying that anyone is a specufester or that anyone on this forum is a specufester. (its a ridiculous term anyway)

I think he's pointing out - with the LVR percentages in the referred post - that anyone that speculated heavily will be in trouble. Whats wrong with saying that?

I think there's an agenda behind your post ffc. If you want to make a point, why don't you just make it.

Sunfish, how do you know he's been banned?

Oh I think you are. If not, why did you post this on a property investor website? Very rude indeed.

 

[topcropper]

Yep, I'd like to know why he was banned too. He sounded like he could have contributed to discussions here.

See ya's.

 

[topcropper]

Sunfish, how do you know he's been banned?

Says 'BANNED' below his name.

See ya's.

 

[evand]

ok i missed that, thanks.

I dont understand why a lot of posters only want people on the forum who agree with them or agree with their view of future prices. Whats to be gained from that?

Beside being a total bear (which is his right) I havnt seen a rude or personal post directed at anyone from Stingray.

By the way, i think the term "doom & gloomer" is obsolete these days considering the current economic/property situation.

Says 'BANNED' below his name.

See ya's.

 

[Humphrey]

By the way, i think the term "doom & gloomer" is obsolete these days considering the current economic/property situation.

I didn't like the way that anyone who predicted any sort of market or price drop was immediately labeled a d&g merchant. History shows us that markets and prices rise and fall, so predicting a falling trend can be a very realistic assessment.

However I agree that some people are bearish on a seemingly permanent basis and in those cases the d&g label probably fits.

 

[Sunfish]

I think the mods would like to ban any who question the SS model so one needs to be a bit careful, and have a very thick skin, to be Devil's Advocate here.

 

[sash]

Moderators....any truth in that???

It would be a sad day indeed if that was happening! We in SS would be infamous along with **** site and George Bush...LOL!

I think the mods would like to ban any who question the SS model so one needs to be a bit careful, and have a very thick skin, to be Devil's Advocate here.

 

[Sunfish]

Just looked at your profile Sash and you have been a member for five years but it seems that have only become "active" recently. I've been around even longer in different guises and have always done a bit of stirring with generally poor relations with mods. I am usually more circumspect now though.

I think the mods would like to ban any who question the SS model

was a bit of an overstatement to see if I could get a reaction, an answer about the banning maybe. If they don't reply I may have proved my case.

 

[coastymike]

Banned. How ridiculous. Because he called people who make investment decisions without analysing things "specufestors". I would call them fools. Am I going to be banned.

So he disagrees with the majority. At the moment so do I. I too sold my residential investment properties a few years ago. Why. Because I was happy with the gains I made. There are still many opportunities and I have clients that continue to surprise me with the deals they find. They are not specufestors.

If his post caused him to be banned then whoever is doing the banning has problems. I'm enjoying Stingray's posts and the other bears and also enjoying the bulls comments.

Maybe someone has too much time on their hands. Oh well. Guess I will be banned as well.

 

[sash]

Yes....I was a "sleeper" for 3 of the 5 years!!

....all go back to sleep now!

Just looked at your profile Sash and you have been a member for five years but it seems that have only become "active" recently. I've been around even longer in different guises and have always done a bit of stirring with generally poor relations with mods. I am usually more circumspect now though.


was a bit of an overstatement to see if I could get a reaction, an answer about the banning maybe. If they don't reply I may have proved my case.

 

[Francesco]

Why is Stingray banned if indeed he is banned

OK some reasons perceptible to me:

1) few posts history but very opinionated contributions en masse (within a short time) along the way of controversial issues already discussed in past threads leading some forumites to query agenda or cover of other personalities (eg Max Carnage). His/her confident reference to statistical sources point to a seasoned frequenter to SS.

2) add little to previous threads on rehashed topics such as Demographia statistics, integrity and appropriateness of debt income ratios, international comparisons, revisions of views of global economic institutions eg IMF. However, one-sided usage and interpretation of statistics only reinforce spam-like purpose behind contributions

3) challenged by some forumites for any reason of continuing (in almost hysterical outbursts) but did not respond or take stock of posting style. The style was beginning to advance perceived personal agenda (pushing public psychology toward the downside so that it becomes self-fulfilling) than contributing to forum knowledge

IMHO

 

[sash]

Aaawwwwhhhhhhh....that takes all the fun!!!

On a more serious note.....I think it is healthy to get differing points of views! I still do not think the below is a hanging offence!!

OK some reasons perceptible to me:

1) few posts history but very opinionated contributions en masse (within a short time) along the way of controversial issues already discussed in past threads leading some forumites to query agenda or cover of other personalities (eg Max Carnage). His/her confident reference to statistical sources point to a seasoned frequenter to SS.

2) add little to previous threads on rehashed topics such as Demographia statistics, integrity and appropriateness of debt income ratios, international comparisons, revisions of views of global economic institutions eg IMF. However, one-sided usage and interpretation of statistics only reinforce spam-like purpose behind contributions

3) challenged by some forumites for any reason of continuing (in almost hysterical outbursts) but did not respond or take stock of posting style. The style was beginning to advance perceived personal agenda (pushing public psychology toward the downside so that it becomes self-fulfilling) than contributing to forum knowledge

IMHO

 

[quoll]

That sucks a bit if he has been banned, I agree that having other opinions is good, he was rehashing some old arguments but most people take a while to find the old stuff and work out was has gone before them, so it's not that bad, just ignore it if you don't want to read the same old same old again and again.



waiting for the next one.