ATTN Stingray

[GreatPig]

Really? i would of thought that a secure job coupled with the lowering of interest rates would be a good thing for cashflow

Yes, but it's still ignoring why the RBA feels the need to drop interest rates so much. Is there such a problem with cashflow that they feel compelled to intervene?

And job security is more a state of mind than a reality. Very few jobs are truly secure in an economic downturn.

GP

 

[andrew_de_a]

you are obviously a 'glass half empty' person where i am 'half full', everyone's situation will be touched differently by the downturn some for better, some for worse. Many people will make investment decisions in this downturn that will set themselves up for life and many will fail.

As far as I'm concerned, you play the cards you're dealt and as long as i have a job im quite happy to see the rates marching downwards.

 

[urchin]

you are obviously a 'glass half empty' person where i am 'half full'

well, i guess one of you two will soon be banned

 

[GreatPig]

you are obviously a 'glass half empty' person

I prefer to think of myself more as someone who doesn't watch the glass slowly draining and think that being down to half full already means it won't go any lower, or that it will necessarily be full again any time soon.

I'd sooner be prepared for an empty glass than just assume God (or some other powers that be) will provide and miraculously refill the glass before I die of thirst (but being prepared is not the same thing as believing it will happen). In that mix of risk and reward that makes up financial markets, I prefer not to pretend that the risk part doesn't exist.

Many people will make investment decisions in this downturn that will set themselves up for life and many will fail.

Which is essentially what I said before in relation to the property market. No one knows what will happen, some will be lucky, some will be astute, some will be unlucky, and I guess some will simply be plain stupid. I'm hoping for a mix of lucky and astute myself, but of course I have no control over the former so can only try to improve my chances with the latter.

Still, I acknowledge that I could end up with the rough end of the pineapple as much as anyone else, and that there will likely be a few Maxwell Smarts out there who, despite doing everything in the worst possible way, will nevertheless find themselves in a far better situation than most.

well, i guess one of you two will soon be banned

Either that or the forum will start requiring all messages to be written in an investing version of Newspeak.

GP

 

[fokas]

Far out! All these forums politics that I have suddenly learnt! Well there you go!

 

[evand]

The lower interest rates go, the bigger recession the RBA/government are trying to avoid.

Nothing half full/half empty about that.....only economic reality.

By the way Andrew, seeing how you've asked a couple a couple people to reveal their career & background, a little of yours would be enlightening.

you are obviously a 'glass half empty' person where i am 'half full', everyone's situation will be touched differently by the downturn some for better, some for worse. Many people will make investment decisions in this downturn that will set themselves up for life and many will fail.

As far as I'm concerned, you play the cards you're dealt and as long as i have a job im quite happy to see the rates marching downwards.

 

[andrew_de_a]

25 years old, own 2 IP in Melbourne's north and paying off PPOR.

Ive been working as an agent and in property management for one of Melbourne's leading inner east real estate agencies for the last 8 years.

Dont get me wrong, I'm seeing property prices tumble in my area by the day. And I know that the economy is slowly heading towards/near recession. However, as i mentioned, these are the times when the real investors come out to play. And that is exactly what I am seeing at the moment, the 'known' bigshots of the area are snapping up good value stock like there is no tomorrow and the mum and dad 'herd' is sitting tight. I have no problem with that either, each to their own and whatever helps you sleep at night.

I'm cashed up and see the following year as a great time to buy some stock that I honestly believe will be under valued (in my area anyway).

I agree with you great pig in saying that 'no one knows what is going to happen' so like i say you play the cards you are dealt and make the most of some favourable buying opportunities.

Im off to work now, have a great day!

 

[evand]

The bigshots must be negative gearing in a falling market, with uncertain growth prospects for who knows how long in the future.

Hardly the recipe for successful investing imo. Then again i dont classify myself a as a bigshot so i could be mistaken.

Dont get me wrong, I'm seeing property prices tumble in my area by the day. And I know that the economy is slowly heading towards/near recession. However, as i mentioned, these are the times when the real investors come out to play. And that is exactly what I am seeing at the moment, the 'known' bigshots of the area are snapping up good value stock like there is no tomorrow and the mum and dad 'herd' is sitting tight. I have no problem with that either, each to their own and whatever helps you sleep at night.

 

[GreatPig]

good value stock

That, IMO, is the issue.

"Good value" can only be determined after the fact, as it has to be compared to future value, not past value.

GP

 

[andrew_de_a]

you're right 'value' is a paradigm that does involve a certain degree of speculation, however, I believe that a lot of the properties are nearing (or are already) below their intrinsic value (in my area).

That’s probably a matter of personal opinion, my perceived value might not be yours. Once again, sub markets etc mean that blanket comments can’t be used for the whole real estate market.

 

[coastymike]

Agreed that it is strange and rude to ask a question re your LVR without even knowing you. However we are all adults and can easily ignore questions or the person if we like. As long as they don't make defamatory (no I don't think specufestor is defamatory as it is appropriate for some people) comments, post pornography or the such then they are entitled to their own opinion and we should let them post.

I have noticed moderators on many forums seem to think that they are the equivalent of the old school hall monitor. Running around the halls berating the bullies to keep them in line. Well people can look after themselves.

Agreed that posts which could be defamatory and potentially lead to civil action being taken against the website, pornographic images which are not appropriate for such a site, or similar such content should be monitored.

Now the moderators, as they do on all other forums, that the "rules" state a number of things. As any good lawyer would say "show me how the rules have been broken". So we get back to some rules being enforced because of the school hall monitor.

The other question I have always had is why do people spend hours and hours monitoring sites that they don't own and aren't being paid for. I would be spending the time either with family or building my own website if I enjoyed doing that. But to do it for free ? Seems strange but hey the wealthy have been using people as slaves for centuries. Guess times don't really change at all.

 

[Rolf Latham]

Hiya Mike

I see and understand your point, but cant agree.

Please note the following is my personal view and likely doesnt represent the view of other mods or the "owners" of the forum, nor does my comment relate to this particular thread

If the were not for a moderate level of moderation using a little fuzzy logic and interpreting "rules" with one's own value sets then any PUBLIC forum community becomes a place where anarchy rules, ie there are no rules.

Yes there are clear rules on spam, unsavoury materials etc. But there are also times where decisions need to be taken where not everyone agrees, even at a moderator level.

Whats acceptable to one person is totally intolerable to another, and finding a balance is NOT possible.


ta
rolf

 

[yo yo ma]

We need rules because, let's face it, without rules, there's chaos...

 

[Francesco]

I think the mods in SS are doing a good job and thanks to them there is a reasonable high level of contribution and substance in SS. Keep up the good work and being criticised is unfortunately normal.

 

[wylie]

I also agree that we need rules. Let's face it, without the rules here on SS this forum could easily slide down to the level of that other forum.... and who would want to be part of that style of forum? Not me.

I'm sure there are interesting things being said on that forum, but to have to read between the hateful, spiteful rubbish doesn't interest me.

I prefer this "grown up" forum.

 

[BayView]

Oh I think you are. If not, why did you post this on a property investor website? Very rude indeed.

I don't think that post was insulting.

Maybe a very strong bearish statement; I hope he's wrong.

My problem with people like Stingray (and I'm happy for him to be here) and YM, is they have bailed out after only a short burst in their careers as property investors, haven't re-entered and haven't weathered any previous storms to attach their points of view to.

It's all simply estimation by them, so let's bear what he says with that in mind.

My estimation is a 12-18 month slow down, because with cheaper interest rates now in full force, there will be people able to borrow where they couldn't previously and they will do so; especially if properties are perceived to be cheaper.

Some won't of course, as media reports and neg sentiment affects the 90% of people as we all know.

(Think penguins on the beach, or the Lemmings).

The other 10% take no notice, and look for ways to capitalise on the existing climate.

People like Stingray help me to evaluate the market more objectively and adjust my strategy accordingly.

For example, I wouldn't rush out to buy a $600k OTP townhouse in a 50 apartment complex with a $95% LVR right now.

But I'll definitely look for a development block with a house on it that can be rented out for near loan repayment rates, with more rate decreases to come.

 

[GreatPig]

The other question I have always had is why do people spend hours and hours monitoring sites that they don't own and aren't being paid for.

I would suggest because they have a genuine interest in the topic and the online community of the forum and wish to contribute something to help keep it going. I don't think anyone makes money from this forum, not even the owners.

Much the same reason people (including yourself) take time to reply with helpful information for other people when there's nothing in it for themselves.

GP

 

[BayView]

I suppose he/she would take the info back to 'world home cost drop' forum and brag out the info.

Brilliant.

My stomach is hurting from laughing so hard.

What about; "Universal Dwelling Fiscal Retardation".

 

[BayView]

We need rules because, let's face it, without rules, there's chaos...

"Sorry 'bout that, Chief".

"The old, gun-in-the-rabbit-in-the-hat trick. That's the second time I've fallen for that this month!"

 

[BayView]

I think one needs to think about why interest rates are dropping as fast as they are. It's not just to keep a pile of property investors happy.
GP

It never was, is, or will be; it's about keeping the wider economy in good shape (hopefully) but boy; will I happily accept the result.

It means my cashflow has increased and the properties are cheaper to buy.

For sure this latest crisis is not good for everyone; I wouldn't like to be an ANZ "middle-management" employee with a 95% LVR loan on a house bought 18 months ago, right about now.