The only reason it doesn't happen is because as an individual can't do this legally. I can't say "the rent you are paying us is too low we are getting a bad deal, therefore I as landlord will increase your taxes to make up for it". If people could do that, they would. There is all sorts of things governments can do "for the greater good" that I can't do. I don't think the mining industry can really be surprised by a change of rules by the government when so much money is being made from government owned assets.
Australian Sharemarket
- Thread starter Empty Pockets
- Start date
The only reason it doesn't happen is because as an individual can't do this legally. I can't say "the rent you are paying us is too low we are getting a bad deal, therefore I as landlord will increase your taxes to make up for it". If people could do that, they would. There is all sorts of things governments can do "for the greater good" that I can't do. I don't think the mining industry can really be surprised by a change of rules by the government when so much money is being made from government owned assets.
Gann analysis is showing that the current cycle is folloing the 2002/03 lows.
Expect a drop till September/October.
well here's my tale of woe for this week...pick away guys
was holding MGX in CFD form and it gapped down and took me out and I mean out. Not happy Jan.
yeah, yeah I know, cfds are dangerous etc etc have learned my lesson the hard way and am embarassed (but not ashamed) to say so. sigh
What date did you get into it Joan?
last week. i knew I would be in for pain after sunday and should have sold out of the whole position on Monday. This is one of my favourite stocks to trade. I guess I had a brain fart and I was waiting for it to bounce back after a panic sell off but it just kept going down. stupid, I know.
You are a rarity in admitting a disaster. Good luck for future trades.
xjo may see support at 4650=200dsma or 4600=previous support line.
unless Greece or Spain fails, or China recession and property bust, or terrorist attack, doubt it will go lower for a while.....
but then only fools make predictions like this huh
I dont look at trending analysis, but i do look at forward looking indicators.
PMI in australia and US very good, germany good.
Warren Buffett interview about pick up in activity amongst his various businesses in march/april also good.
Used todays weakness to buy an additonal $120k of stock.
sorry to hear joan....
i'm waiting to pounce on AJM. MACD *just* turning on my charts.
i'm waiting to pounce on AJM. MACD *just* turning on my charts.
It's had a nice channel since May09 Joan.
A nice one to long and short.
Several indicators to confirm its pattern in that time.
Do you do any technical analysis?
I've not followed the AIG PMI but check similar in the US regularly.
Some other US indicators I note - non farm payroll, retail sales, ism index, ppi index, conference board's leading economic index.
All steady as she goes over there according to their April 19 LEI release (based on March)....though my gurus don't think the consumer has legs, and the coincident bears that out.
The US Conference Board also produce a monthly composite leading index for Australia, last release April 29 based on February - consists of yield spread, money supply, gross operating surplus, share prices, building approvals, sales to inventories ratio, rural goods exports. It's down last 2 months, lower building approvals overwhelming everything else.
thanks,do you know about the coincident.
can you explain this to me, i've read something about this before, and apparently its very good, maybe better than leading indicators.
but there was also a qualification for it, i cant remember, maybe good for comming out but not going into a recession (but as i said cant remember), anyway would appreciate your thoughts.
thanks again.
IV, I believe the coincident emulates consumer "action" moreso as its based on personal income and sales.
The Conference Board stuff is really well written and concise. Check the two short pdf's here regarding LEI and CEI methodologies. It isn't an exhausting read. All good fundamentals....
Listen out for Meredith Whitney too. She is one of the US's most respected bank analsyts and reckons the US recovery is dependent on their banks holding back an oversupply of foreclosed housing... This is preventing asset values from falling further, which is helping stabilize the banks balance sheets. Though she thinks they have to release stock quicker over the next 12mths. And she thinks this may cause a double dip in their house values. All a delicate balancing act at the moment. She also thinks US credit cards are sick, and doesn't see the US consumer recovering for years.
The components of the Conference Board composites'....
Leading Economic Index Components and Weighting Factor
1 Average weekly hours, manufacturing 0.2725
2 Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance 0.0322
3 Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials 0.0809
4 Index of supplier deliveries – vendor performance 0.0715
5 Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods 0.0192
6 Building permits, new private housing units 0.0263
7 Stock prices, 500 common stocks 0.0373
8 Money supply, M2 0.3248
9 Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds 0.1058
10 Index of consumer expectations 0.0295
Coincident Economic Index
1 Employees on nonagricultural payrolls 0.4949
2 Personal income less transfer payments 0.2615
3 Industrial production 0.1346
4 Manufacturing and trade sales 0.1090
Lagging Economic Index
1 Average duration of unemployment 0.0356
2 Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade 0.1192
3 Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing 0.0631
4 Average prime rate 0.2731
5 Commercial and industrial loans 0.1071
6 Consumer installment credit to personal income ratio 0.2117
7 Consumer price index for services 0.1902
