With respect, BearTrap, why did you bother? You’re just a troll to them.
I don’t understand why anyone would contribute to GHPC??
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Australia's Forthcoming Construction-Led Property Boom
- Thread starter Shadow
- Start date
With respect, BearTrap, why did you bother? You’re just a troll to them.
I don’t understand why anyone would contribute to GHPC??
After your recent posts I'm surprised FHB hasn't banned you already. Not only do you had a different point of view to them but you also dared to ask for proof, both of which are capital offenses.
Can you imagine what would happen to inflation if we had a construction boom + mining boom + oil price rises.
I can't see a construction boom happening while all the construction workers are making their money from building infrastructure for the mining industry.
Imagine the hourly rate for plumbers...
The most likely reason for an increase in urban construction would be a drop in commodities prices based on our major growth partners having noone to sell to i.e. western markets stop buying tf china etc slow down manufacturing tf commodities prices drop tf our mining boom slows as the benefits reduce.
So until commodities prices drop and there are builders out there actually looking for work again I can't see a major increase in construction.
And have a think about what it will cost to build a house with the subbies being used to receiving top dollar. House construction prices will be high, putting a real cap on any drop in established house prices.
I can't see a construction boom happening while all the construction workers are making their money from building infrastructure for the mining industry.
Imagine the hourly rate for plumbers...
The most likely reason for an increase in urban construction would be a drop in commodities prices based on our major growth partners having noone to sell to i.e. western markets stop buying tf china etc slow down manufacturing tf commodities prices drop tf our mining boom slows as the benefits reduce.
So until commodities prices drop and there are builders out there actually looking for work again I can't see a major increase in construction.
And have a think about what it will cost to build a house with the subbies being used to receiving top dollar. House construction prices will be high, putting a real cap on any drop in established house prices.
Any construction boom is good for me as we have a construction company. Sub contractors working for less than they do now? Not a chance. At least not for the competent (read really, really good) subbies. With inflation rising, my partner has increased his hourly price already and will do so if it rises further. No builder has complained about this so far....
Now only if the builders at the moment will stop giving my partner work for 5 minutes, then we can do our own builds and developments and stick our fingers in the honey jar.
Now only if the builders at the moment will stop giving my partner work for 5 minutes, then we can do our own builds and developments and stick our fingers in the honey jar.
Any construction boom is good for me as we have a construction company. Sub contractors working for less than they do now? Not a chance. At least not for the competent (read really, really good) subbies. With inflation rising, my partner has increased his hourly price already and will do so if it rises further. No builder has complained about this so far....
Now only if the builders at the moment will stop giving my partner work for 5 minutes, then we can do our own builds and developments and stick our fingers in the honey jar.
As an exbuilder myself I agree totally with above. Steel is up what 70%, waste dumping in sydney 20%, copper, plastics, travel costs.
I build commercial now and I don't anyone sitting around as all good tradies /techs are in huge demand.
Peter
Can't agree with this analysis.
Sounds great in thoery but in reality on the ground the opposite is happening.
We are now starting ot source building tradies at reduced rates.
Not all tradies are interested in working for mining companies or the related service provider companies that have contracts with the mining companies.
Most are not interested in the long hours, the fifo rotation, the shiftwork, etc etc.
In fact some that THINK they want to work for the big money associated with the mining boom cant get in! They're not suited or don't have the necessary skills.
Personally, I haven't met too many happy campers that work directly for the mining company as employees or fifo contractors. Most want to get out. Some do pull the pin, but for most its s trap. A golden handcuff that keeps them there, miserable but well paid.
The resi construction market has stalled temporarily, thats all. It will come back and pretty soon.
Its so far out of equilibrium that something will have to shift to bring in back . Pent up demand can't go unsatisfied for ever.
There will be different ways put forward to address the affordability question which will only mask the problem ( eg, longer term loans to 50yrs or 100 yrs to get the repayments down, govt intervention to subsidise the deposit reqd. etc)
The cost of building (in Perth as an example) is still competitive. As the market slows down it gets more competitive.
Real costs for construction can also go down by either using different building materials or by building smaller houses.
The labour input cost can ( and will) also go down.
The use of more 457 visa sponsored tradies will come into play. Its already happening and will only increase.
We're worried about Australia slowing down economically, whereas in fact the world is slowing faster. Its tough out there and the word is out that this is a great destination for well paid and plentiful work. They're already coming.
More and more builders will start to employ their base trades in house on wages to get some control over the escalating sub contract costs.
Like I said, the current situation is so far out of balance that something has to give... and it will.
kp
Unprecedented building boom - Sydney
I'm not really sure, the moderator never provided an explanation. I just tried to log in one day and discovered that I had been banned after six months of membership. I assume it was because I'm not a hardcore gloomer like the rest, and I generally posted positively about the property market. FHB is the moderator there, so perhaps he can shine some more light on it.
Yes, this is normal. If you challenge any of the commonly held beliefs then you will be heavily moderated. Questioning sources is more than enough to trigger alarm bells with the moderators. Most GHPC members simply accept blindly any D&G data posted by other D&Gers.
I have read some of your posts there BearTrap. They seem to be using the same tactics that they used on me, JIT, MoreIPs, yorke and anyone else who doesn't truly believe that the sky is falling in. Basically, they will abuse, attack and bait you until you respond in kind. Then they will report your posts and label you as a troll (or simply 'disruptive' is enough). Then they will ban you for defending your position. This is standard practice over there. If you don't go along with the gloomers then you won't last long unfortunately.
To be honest, if you really want to continue posting there you should tone down any positive posts and try to be more apocalyptic... for example, every second day you could call for Specufestors to be burned, or claim that we will soon enter a great depression of unprecedented proportions etc.
Anyway, back on topic... here is another article discussing a forthcoming construction boom in Sydney (non-residential).
I'm not really sure, the moderator never provided an explanation. I just tried to log in one day and discovered that I had been banned after six months of membership. I assume it was because I'm not a hardcore gloomer like the rest, and I generally posted positively about the property market. FHB is the moderator there, so perhaps he can shine some more light on it.
Yes, this is normal. If you challenge any of the commonly held beliefs then you will be heavily moderated. Questioning sources is more than enough to trigger alarm bells with the moderators. Most GHPC members simply accept blindly any D&G data posted by other D&Gers.
I have read some of your posts there BearTrap. They seem to be using the same tactics that they used on me, JIT, MoreIPs, yorke and anyone else who doesn't truly believe that the sky is falling in. Basically, they will abuse, attack and bait you until you respond in kind. Then they will report your posts and label you as a troll (or simply 'disruptive' is enough). Then they will ban you for defending your position. This is standard practice over there. If you don't go along with the gloomers then you won't last long unfortunately.
To be honest, if you really want to continue posting there you should tone down any positive posts and try to be more apocalyptic... for example, every second day you could call for Specufestors to be burned, or claim that we will soon enter a great depression of unprecedented proportions etc.
Anyway, back on topic... here is another article discussing a forthcoming construction boom in Sydney (non-residential).
....any chance of providing some more details Peter. I'm thinking of getting into that lark within the next 12 months.
Actually it was more the 20-30 posts per day about Sydney booming madly that did it. Every thread managed to get half a dozen posts about Sydney booming in it, even if the topic wasn't about Sydney. Got a bit tedious. You singlehandedly got Consa to change the handling of newbies to include flood control AND got the forum rules changed ... impressive, but no precedent. We had to change a tonne of stuff on our server to accommodate a particularly annoying 7yo member ... it happens.
As to building, roll on steel prices dropping. I need 43m of fence and a colourbond roof and I could do with a second house also with a colourbond roof ... hell, if steel prices come down lots I'll do the whole of the new house in corrugated colourbond and miniorb
I may think prices are going to come down and <insert doom and gloom here> but it hasn't stopped me actually going off and buying an investment property in my price bracket Foreclosures rock.
As to building, roll on steel prices dropping. I need 43m of fence and a colourbond roof and I could do with a second house also with a colourbond roof ... hell, if steel prices come down lots I'll do the whole of the new house in corrugated colourbond and miniorb
I may think prices are going to come down and <insert doom and gloom here> but it hasn't stopped me actually going off and buying an investment property in my price bracket
Foreclosures rock.RE, we both know this is nonsense. My posts on GHPC were no different to my posts here on Somersoft, and I posted about many other topics... not just 'Sydney booming madly'. For example, the property market in general, population growth, immigration, construction activity, the existence or otherwise of a housing shortage, vacancy rates, global house prices, interest rates, the economy, supply and demand, past property booms and busts, comparisons with US, UK, Ireland, Japan etc...
I had over 3500 posts on GHPC. Are you really trying to say that every one of these posts was about 'Sydney booming madly'. I don't think so RE. In fact, I don't even believe Sydney will boom again for several years, as I have stated many times, both here and on GHPC!
Basically everything you just said above is a typical GHPC misrepresentation. But hey, if you think you can back up your claim, then please link to some examples.
Anyway, thanks for letting me know that I was banned simply because I 'got a bit tedious'. I don't remember seeing that crime listed in the forum rules, perhaps I just missed that one.
Shadow.
Hahaha, so what was the excuse for banning me then ? I don't think I've ever posted a single thing about Sydney and my TOTAL number of posts there would probably have been 20-30. If anything is tedious there it would be the constant attacks on BB's even when the thread topic has nothing to do with it. As far as I noticed there are 3 major groups of losers there, the ones who got our of property too early and missed the tide, the ones who were to scared to get into property and finally the Y gen kids who want it now but can't afford it and are not prepared to put the hard work in. The only thing they have in common is that they are all green, green with envy, and think that if they wish it hard enough it may come true. Now can you honestly deny this ?
Darn right its not. The commies have been doing for ages, we got a taste of it at the games.
If I needed Colorbond I'd get it now before prices start moving up again, I'm expecting at least a 20% rise by years end. Not only they've been having supply problems with the plant in Vietnam but demand is still increasing so I wouldn't expect any discounting, specially with the aussie dollar falling. But dyor. You seem to think house prices are going to come down further so if that's the case then it won't be worth building new houses which could cause some oversupply of Colorbond. Or if the chinese decide that they don't really like living in tents and would rather rebuild the houses destroyed in the earthquake then maybe not.As to building, roll on steel prices dropping. I need 43m of fence and a colourbond roof and I could do with a second house also with a colourbond roof ... hell, if steel prices come down lots I'll do the whole of the new house in corrugated colourbond and miniorb
Beats me, I've been renovating a house more than forum camping lately and I think I completely missed you there, or damn close anyway ... the reno is keeping me off my computer quite efficiently. Shadow was active when I was home juggling the grump and he was REALLY hard to miss ...
And my own forum has had a bit of extra signup lately and everyone wants a piece of us to do stuff. And we've got minions there to offload admin duties onto but they aren't that much help. Aaaaaaaargh ....
Construction boom coming
Full report: http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,26011686-664,00.html
Full report: http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,26011686-664,00.html
hi all
a recovery requires three things and without them I have no idea how you can look at a recovery
1. a developer( sound silly but true you need a developer taht want to develop in this market I dont see alot)
2. a funder to fund the development(again sound funny well its not st george have closed off developemnt funding, bankwest have as well sunncorp forget it and the other three well save your ink) if you have seen bank comming back into the construction funding area tell me because they slipped under my radar.
3 margin at the moment the margin are running at about 12 to 15% you need 25 to 30% to make the site work
you only increase margin when you have increased sale prices
anyone seen a 15% price increase in sales in a 6month time frame and on going
again that one went under my radar as well
you tell me anyone that can develop in this market with out the above three and I will show you a fool
and anyone that says we will build out of the problems we are in at the moment
show me the three have changed and until they do any article is just a paper filler.
we have the developers so we have 1 out of three
a recovery requires three things and without them I have no idea how you can look at a recovery
1. a developer( sound silly but true you need a developer taht want to develop in this market I dont see alot)
2. a funder to fund the development(again sound funny well its not st george have closed off developemnt funding, bankwest have as well sunncorp forget it and the other three well save your ink) if you have seen bank comming back into the construction funding area tell me because they slipped under my radar.
3 margin at the moment the margin are running at about 12 to 15% you need 25 to 30% to make the site work
you only increase margin when you have increased sale prices
anyone seen a 15% price increase in sales in a 6month time frame and on going
again that one went under my radar as well
you tell me anyone that can develop in this market with out the above three and I will show you a fool
and anyone that says we will build out of the problems we are in at the moment
show me the three have changed and until they do any article is just a paper filler.
we have the developers so we have 1 out of three
I'm going to ask a dumb question.. Are you relating a construction boom to a boom in property prices? If so, doesn't this contradict the whole "lack of housing fuelling property prices" argument?
And what sort of construction are you talking about? From what I've seen in Brisbane the new developments 20km+ from the cbd take forever to sell.. nobody wants to live there. I see more of an impact from building approvals/zoning changes by allowing more high density living i.e. more dwellings on smaller blocks, high rise units creating little cbds in the suburbs.
That's the plan anyway..
And what sort of construction are you talking about? From what I've seen in Brisbane the new developments 20km+ from the cbd take forever to sell.. nobody wants to live there. I see more of an impact from building approvals/zoning changes by allowing more high density living i.e. more dwellings on smaller blocks, high rise units creating little cbds in the suburbs.
That's the plan anyway..
Eventually, yes, if an oversupply is created.
In the USA, construction activity and house prices boomed at the same time. They had a construction-led housing boom.
Construction activity really can supercharge the economy. As well as the additional jobs created in the building industry, we have flow on to the wider economy - real estate agents, banks, furniture stores, electronics etc. Everybody does well out of a residential construction boom.
Of course, as we all know, in the USA they over-built, and lending standards worsened over the years, which ended in disaster.
Yes, the same thing could happen here.
I'm unfamiliar with local conditions in Brisbane, but the recent Australia-wide surge in building approvals has been led by apartments and multi-unit dwellings. So yes, higher density will be the way to go. Especially if governments continue to choke the supply of new land.
One of the reasons that the USA over-built, is because there is very little restriction on where people can build. It is much easier to develop land and build houses in the USA. Australia has a more restrictive policy.
Australia also has a heck of lot LESS land that is suitable for residential suburbia than the USA. We are basically a desert continent afterall.
Dont forget we also have a lot less people here too, and everyone is concentrated in the capital cities - which is further contrast to the USA.
Anyway - i think there is going to be more urban in-fill too. Even TT/ACA were doing a story just last week about the excessive levels of developments in Kuring-gai council..... you should've seen the NIMBYs!!
In my backyard (Baulkham Hills/Castle Hill, sydney) were have, and still are, seeing a fair bit of urban in-fill development. More and more older houses are being knocked down, and replaced with townhouse complexes, and some multi-level apartment blocks (usually 3-4 storeys at most). This development rate peaked about 3-4 years ago, and then slowed down.... but its starting to pick up again.
Dont forget we also have a lot less people here too, and everyone is concentrated in the capital cities - which is further contrast to the USA.
Anyway - i think there is going to be more urban in-fill too. Even TT/ACA were doing a story just last week about the excessive levels of developments in Kuring-gai council..... you should've seen the NIMBYs!!
In my backyard (Baulkham Hills/Castle Hill, sydney) were have, and still are, seeing a fair bit of urban in-fill development. More and more older houses are being knocked down, and replaced with townhouse complexes, and some multi-level apartment blocks (usually 3-4 storeys at most). This development rate peaked about 3-4 years ago, and then slowed down.... but its starting to pick up again.
So GR,
how do you explain these 2 consecutive monthly 30% jumps in new unit block approvals? Cashed up developers? Or developers getting DA's in place for easier finance? Or?
What's your take on the current upswing in vals?
You better believe the building boom is coming. I am seeing it with my own eyes (plus the stats). Quite close to a number of developers and I can tell you now they are starting to ramp up.
NRAS, cuts in some of the development taxes, cuts in stampduty tax (for some states) if one buys new, etc. And then, when the Sydney median clicks well and truely over the 2003 high, then... it will be on.
I am long on some of the listed developers whom were basically being priced on the ASX for bankruptcy not three months ago. AVJ still has its stock price lower than where it was back in 1991!
Not that this is a recommendation to buy stocks or any investment (my disclaimer!). But lets just say I am putting my money where my mouth is on this one.
NRAS, cuts in some of the development taxes, cuts in stampduty tax (for some states) if one buys new, etc. And then, when the Sydney median clicks well and truely over the 2003 high, then... it will be on.
I am long on some of the listed developers whom were basically being priced on the ASX for bankruptcy not three months ago. AVJ still has its stock price lower than where it was back in 1991!
Not that this is a recommendation to buy stocks or any investment (my disclaimer!). But lets just say I am putting my money where my mouth is on this one.
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