Australia's population balloons to 21.8m

[redwing]

Not sure if this bit of news has been posted yet?

Australia's population balloons to 21.8m

Australia's population soared by almost half a million people in the year to March - a boom not seen since the 1960s.

A green group says that's no cause for celebration and has called for immigration to be cut to protect the environment.

Australian Bureau of Statistics data released on Tuesday shows the population increased by just over two per cent - or 439,000 people - in the year to March.

There are now 21.8 million of us.

Most of the recent increase - almost 300,000 people - was due to immigration.

But there's also a mini-baby boom, with 160,000 babies entering the world during the year.

Cont...

 

[ianvestor]

So, 2% p.a. = ballooning?

Our term deposits must be exploding right now.

Anyway, keep them coming I say, there's plenty of room.

 

[Rockstar]

I say, there's plenty of room.

but not enough homes to put them in.

 

[Propertunity]

There are cities in Japan which have more people that the whole of our country. 22m is nothing.

 

[boz]

there is something odd in those statistics. would like an explanation from ABS about unemployment data and partecipation rate after this new population number. what are all those new people doing?

 

[ToDo]

there is something odd in those statistics. would like an explanation from ABS about unemployment data and partecipation rate after this new population number. what are all those new people doing?

They are busy buying property. There is no way Immigration Department has issued so many visas - so they must be cashed up ex-pats who are fleeing crisis in other parts of the world. BTW, 439,000 people - this equates to demand in another 146,000 dwellings.

 

[MichaelW]

Here's some commentary around it today by Ross Gittins. I always like reading his stuff...

Our population explosion: more people, more damage

You might think that, once people have been born, it doesn't matter to the global environment what country they live in.

But if they move from a developing to a developed country - as in our case most would - their standard of living (and thus their use of natural resources and generation of wastes) greatly increases.

Our apparently universally approved determination to maintain high immigration greatly increases the difficulty we'll have reducing our carbon emissions, puts a lot of upward pressure on house prices and raises questions about whether we're exceeding our Earth's ''carrying capacity''.

Won't be too long and the impact of this immigration policy will start to be felt in house prices. I give the next boom a 12 month window before it kicks into full swing. If you're not positioning yourself for it right now then you are leaving your run a tad late. Don't say we didn't warn you!...

Cheers,
Michael

 

[Ausprop]

you're kidding yourself...these people will just move into spare bedrooms or doss on the lounge. anyway there are heaps of empty houses around - house prices will crash 40% and stocks are heading back to 2400.

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

So, 2% p.a. = ballooning?

It's a fair amount when you consider that most of them want to live in Sydney or Melbourne.

 

[ToDo]

you're kidding yourself...these people will just move into spare bedrooms or doss on the lounge. anyway there are heaps of empty houses around - house prices will crash 40% and stocks are heading back to 2400.

Be careful advocating bunching up. Problem with bunching up has its name. It is called wife/girlfriend. For some obscure reason these creatures always want their own place and are very territorial in kitchens/bathrooms.

Very few people who buch up (or even express their ideas) have wife or girlfriend. It causes a lot of speculation about the methods with which bunchers satisfy thier natural urges. It is reported very frequent use of that 6 letter word starting with "w" and ending with "r".

 

[Aaron Sice]

ToDo - you got it in one - ex-pats.

the explosion in english accents up my way has trebled.

THAT'S ballooning - not 2% - but yes - i reckon half are looking to melb/syd

 

[MichaelW]

Hi guys,

And do many here remember what happened last time we had a population explosion in Australia? It was after WWII when the Baby Boomers were born en masse and resulted in the single largest inter-generational proportional increase in population on record. Our economy absolutely exploded.

I can feel another generational wave forming. This population growth will be talked about by future generations for centuries to come. It might be coined something like the commodity generation or the China generation. This is historic in its proportions.

All those capable young educated immigrants landing in our beach-head cities of Melbourne and Sydney and slowly filtering out to the regions. I like the implications for economic strength and how this neatly solves the problem of funding the Boomers pending retirement. Ageing population problem? What problem! We brought a gazzilion smart capable young people in. Problem solved...

Cheers,
Michael

 

[Jefred]

but not enough homes to put them in.

I still wander if there are about 8.5mil (2008) of dwellings how come there is such housing shortage as everyone says?

All those capable young educated immigrants

You just need to make sure that they are educated. And capable...

 

[Rockstar]

I still wander if there are about 8.5mil (2008) of dwellings how come there is such housing shortage as everyone says?

There are plenty of spare houses out there. Problem is - they are not available or not in areas where people want or need to live. This boost in population and lack of new construction will increase demand as more people compete over the dwindling available stock - and we all know what increasing demand and limiting supply does.

 

[redwing]

WA's growth rate is fastest in the nation

WA's growth rate is fastest in the nation

WA is growing at its fastest rate in four decades, with the State's population increasing by 220 people a day during the first three months of the year.

A record number of those new residents came to WA from overseas. Fourteen thousand migrants moved to the State during the March quarter.

Combined with a natural increase (births over deaths) of 4300 and another 1500 people moving West from other parts of the country, the local population increased during the period by a record 20,215.

The high growth is a trend being reflected nationally, with 97,000 migrants moving to Australia during the period - the biggest quarterly rise since the Australian Bureau of Statistics started collating figures.

There are now 2.2 million people in WA, an increase of 68,000 in the past 12 months. Of these new residents, 43,000 are from overseas, 18,700 are from the State's increased birthrate while 5900 were attracted from other parts of the country.

WA recorded the nation's fastest population growth in the year to March (3.1 per cent), outperforming its nearest rivals Queensland (2.6 per cent), Northern Territory (2.2 per cent) and Victoria (2.1 per cent). Tasmania (1 per cent) has the lowest growth rate.

The population of NSW hit the seven million mark for the first time, Victoria now has 5.4 million people and Queensland - which added a record 113,000 residents - is now home to 4.4 million.

 

[ToDo]

I still wander if there are about 8.5mil (2008) of dwellings how come there is such housing shortage as everyone says?
...

If you mean ABS census figures, you shall closely look at the definition of a "vacant dwelling".
It includes caravans, houseboats, cabins, sleepouts, etc,etc.
In short, census oficers were instructed to count anything that has a door and a window as a dwelling.

And it was counted as vacant if there was nobody in there at the time of the visit. If to follow that methodology, everybody walking down the street or in at work, shop, cinema, restaurant, etc must have been counted as homeless.

 

[MichaelW]

Redwing,

You do, of course, realise that is highly misrepresentative?

WA grew by 68,000 and Queensland grew by 113,000 as quoted. That's almost double the number that WA grew by. I'd wager NSW and VIC also outstripped WA over the last 12 months too.

But the "rate" in WA was the highest as they're talking about the percentage increase off a lower base. In absolute terms most aren't going to WA.

Cheers,
Michael

 

[boz]

They are busy buying property. There is no way Immigration Department has issued so many visas - so they must be cashed up ex-pats who are fleeing crisis in other parts of the world. BTW, 439,000 people - this equates to demand in another 146,000 dwellings.

may be that is why new home sales number jumped 11% in august link
Probably victoria (+21.8%) had a jump because of new government grant starting in July. definetly new home market is getting very unpredictable and volatile and very difficoult for developer to estimate future new home growth

 

[DeeHwa]

Population growth, arguably, is one of the main factors which fuel property prices and is even more pronounced in Australia given the majority of the people live in a handful of state capital cities. In fact, and I speak only of Melbourne because I grew up there, it is one of the largest cities by land area in the world and it probably goes the same for Sydney. It would be no surprise to me that Melbourne, Sydney (and Brisbane one day) become one of the most densely populated cities in the World. Hence, property prices will continue to trek higher and higher (with a few troughs along the way) and there is nothing to stop it because housing is a necessity, not a luxury and the majority of people would not trade the proximity factor where land is king.

On a side note, I have identified several other factors which will contribute to housing shortages (speaking of Melbourne again, although it probably applies to other cities)

1. there is still a huge housing supply problem in desirable locations (excluding new estate developments of course) given council redtape, inflated development levies and costs and banks unwillingness to lend for residential projects. For those interest rate hike advocates, it will only exacerbate the problem, as finance costs will ultimately squeeze profit margins
2. immigration is increasing and will continue to (the lifestyle of Australian cities is just too attractive to stop it). These guys have the cash and enough monetary and willpower to price out locals if need be
3. there is a large no. of upgraders and 2nd, 3rd homebuyers who are upgrading houses and building bigger houses, which alleviates sufficient land to build flats, apartments etc. within 15kms of the CBD
4. the big thing of 2009 and in many years to come is land bankers (especially Mainland Chinese investors - I know, because I am Chinese myself and intend to do the exact same thing, hahaha and have friends my age whose parents have bought properties in prestigious suburbs like Brighton, Canterbury etc. to just live vacant because they 'need' to get the money out of China). It may not make good logical and investment sense to just buy a property and live vacant for years but when it comes to dodging taxes, it very much does! and I heard that even local's are getting into the land banking business, in places like Ascot Vale, Footscray, Moonee Ponds and they are paying top dollars for any decent plot of land
5. government policy - if they had to choose, they would rather high property prices than increased housing affordability because they can tax more on capital gains, land tax etc...and the majority of people in this country are homeowners (whether it is the big mansion with tennis court, swimming pool and parading bikini girls to the 50sqm 1 bedroom flat out in whoop whoop) and not complaining first-home buyers. Existing homeowners would more than enjoy the current great health of the property market
6. Australian dream - need I say more?

 

[Hooray]

It would be no surprise to me that Melbourne, Sydney (and Brisbane one day) become one of the most densely populated cities in the World.

Let me guess. You've never been to Hong Kong or Singapore or New York or Tokyo or.......?

5. government policy - if they had to choose, they would rather high property prices than increased housing affordability because they can tax more on capital gains, land tax etc...

Existing homeowners would more than enjoy the current great health of the property market

Owner occupiers do not pay capital gains or land tax.