Banks not likely to fully pass on interest rate cuts

Just read the following article from news.com.au. I'm disappointed but not surprised that the banks are not likely to fully pass on future interest rate cuts.

Future rate cuts won't be passed on By Scott Murdoch and Rebecca Urban September 19, 2008 01:46am
AUSTRALIAN banks are unlikely to pass on the benefits of future interest rate cuts to customers as concerns for the deteriorating global financial markets grow.

While banks were quick to follow the Reserve Bank's rate cut earlier this month - its first in six years - experts predict that they will resist cutting rates for the remainder of the year in a bid to offset their own borrowing costs.

The Reserve Bank is set to cut interest rates in October and November to stimulate the slowing economy and protect Australia from the global financial market fallout, The Australian reports.

Economists are also tipping a further two rate cuts over the coming 12 months.

But this week's shock collapse of Wall Street investment bank Lehman Brothers and the US Government's emergency bail-out of insurance behemoth American International Group have sparked a sharp liquidity crisis, with banks moving to hoard cash as market volatility worsens.

"It's difficult for the banks to pass on an interest rate cut from the RBA when their sources of funding have gone through the roof," said Adam Carr, a senior economist with interdealer broker ICAP. "With global markets the way they are and the RBA cutting, the banks could think this is a good opportunity to lift margins."

Such a move could attract further ire from banking customers already angered by moves by several lenders to hike rates independently from the central bank over recent months.

The warning on interest rates coincided with steep declines on the Australian share market, which spurred a renewed round of margin calls to investors who have borrowed to invest in shares.
 
of course not, not if funding costs trend up again.
Thems the risk you take with variable mortgage rates.
People have forgoten over the last 10yrs the spread between RBA rates and variable rates has consistantly dropped.
Look back at the 80's and 90's and i think you will see we still have MUCH lower spreads.
If history reverts back to the norm, then expect the spread to increase.

People forget that in the last few years the spread on derivative insurance was incredibly low (and hence why AIG went under it was pricing risk based on recent low volatility history!!!). This enabled securitisation of assets with very low spreads.
Given the blow up on all of this i dont really think you will see such narrow spreads in the near future.
 
This was in another story on news.com.au today also:
"The one reassuring factor is that even if your bank doesn't pass on the full cut, the Reserve Bank is likely to cut again, and again, until it gets mortgage rates down to its desired level."

Hopefully, it's true.
 
Guys,

The banks aren't stupid. They can't raise rates much beyond their current levels or they bankrupt half the Aussie households. If they do that then property markets crash as properties flood the market and all of those assets on the banks' balance sheets get massively devalued. They'll take a short term hit to their profit margins by holding rates steady before they gouge consumers much more. They're still all declaring record profits so have a lot of room to absorb some spread losses at the moment.

It will cost them income in the short term, but protect their balance sheets. Its a no brainer. Don't expect interest rates to go double digit any time soon. I reckon they'll follow the RBA down in October by 25bp.

Cheers,
Michael
 
It's a bit of a game.
One of the banks takes a punt and says it and hopes the other banks come out and say: 'Yeah, us too.'
Of course, the other banks are reluctant to say that - they're happy for NAB to be seen as the bad guys for a while.
So NAB are sitting there now thinking: 'C'mon you buggers. Let's show some solidarity (collusion)...'
Then if there is an RBA cut, they all sit there hoping nobody breaks ranks. Eventually, somebody does and they all have to follow.
But of course, sometimes the first break is up, so up they all go.
 
This was in another story on news.com.au today also:
"The one reassuring factor is that even if your bank doesn't pass on the full cut, the Reserve Bank is likely to cut again, and again, until it gets mortgage rates down to its desired level."

Hopefully, it's true.

I hope so too. VBPLEASE, what banks have got 7.99% fixed rates?
 
Michael, I don't think they'll raise rates independently again, but I do reckon they'll cut less than the RBA will (like the article mentions).

RBA may drop .25% next month, banks will only pass on .15%. They've increased their margin and breathing space without looking as much of a bunch of "bad guys" when they raised them outside RBA.

People can just hope that because of this this perhaps the RBA may decide to give us one extra cut more than they otherwise would next year like BF mentioned.
 
I'm not so sure about banks not passing on rate cuts. It only takes one or two lenders without much exposure to drop their rates and the others will be forced to follow as much as they possibly can.

I suspect that they'll all drop rates similar to what they did in the future, but if it's unsustainable they'll raise them again shortly afterwards. The healthier lenders will then follow that trend to enjoy greater profits, but still price themselves slightly better than the competition to gain market share for as long as they want it.

I also think well see a few more supposedly 'great deals' come into the market which are really just honeymoon rates in disguise such as the BankWest product being flogged at the moment.
 
That was before funding costs spiked again.

Not to mention KRudd and Swan applying as much pressure as they possibly could to make sure the banks followed with at least the first rate cut that would make all the headlines. If they banks didn't follow, would have been a disaster for them politically.
 
Back
Top