Better late than never: House Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities, Dec 2008
- Thread starter manderson
- Start date
Think of Shadow as community service provider. Most of these kids have been diagnosed with the ADH&PC disorder. By keeping the kids busy in here it gives them no time to spend mixing with the wrong crowd, do drugs, abuse alcohol or investors.
Is "Although market is down but I can beat the market" the new new way of denial?
No wonder a 5-year straight down (2004-2008) and 20 years of miserable 5% annual return (even before maintainance/transaction costs are included) are still considered a "good investment". For god sake, high-rate online savings perform better than that!
Yeah, I know, but I find it amusing to play with these kids sometimes. They run over here from their playground (i.e. the other forum), chuck a few water balloons, and run back there giggling to show the other kids what a big commotion they caused. I find it quite amusing. The tone over there has really changed recently - most of the members are furious that they didn't benefit from the handout yesterday (the few who did benefit are rubbing their hands with glee) and they are all very annoyed with the big interest rate cut. It's so funny to watch them all getting themselves into a lather about this. Every day their hopes for a big crash just slip further and further away! Sure even their moderators have seen the light and become homebuyers/specufestors! Probably time to close up shop over there...
You’re right, if you had bought the Sydney property index in 2003 or 1990 then, on those figures, your growth would have hardly kept up with inflation. The yield would be looking pretty sweet now but, in essence, I agree with you – that’s pretty ordinary investment performance. Nothing to do with denial.
I suggest you open your mind a little, stick around here for a while, and learn how to beat the property indexes. With most property transactions only involving emotional owner occupiers, there are many ways for an investor to achieve this.
You have already touched on the importance of timing (try doing the calcs again based on the years 1986 and 1999). Have a read of the information in the “adding value” forum. Attend a few meetings and learn from those who have done it all before. Develop your own style and give it a go!
Alternatively, just copy my post and ridicule it with your mates over THERE. Perhaps it is the mob who is in denial?
Make sense and sounds like you got yourself a good buy, with the falling AUD the price of leather can only go up. Add to that the shoemaker's wage increase, higher energy bills caused by winter climate changes and these shoes could end up costing you twice as much as they did. Or you could paid the same amount in a few months time but instead of a quality pair of shoes end up with an inferior Kmart product from imitation leather made in China.
Yep, that all makes sense too, but strangely, despite all the *fundamentals* pointing to a boom in the price of shoes, they seem to be falling. Anyway, hopefully they don't fall much further than what I paid for them, but in the end it doesn't really matter now I've got some.
That's a very weak response from you. You can normally do better than that...
Residex are pretty good. In fact I once compared Residex's figures with the ABS figures over a ten year period, and while their capital growth figures differed from one year to another, over the ten year period the cumulative result was remarkably similar. Here are the results... the chart below shows the Residex vs ABS capital growth figures for Sydney for the past ten years...
Whose stats do you prefer to use, and why do you think they are superior. Can you give me a brief summary of the methodology used by your preferred statistics provider (and why you think that methodology is better than Residex)?
Also, it would be great if you could show me your regional breakdown for Sydney based on your preferred stats, for comparison with Residex? It would be good to see how they compare. I saw an article a few days which I think showed APM saying that the Northern Beaches only grew by +1.5% last year (can't find the article now), which is much lower than Residex's +9% figure, so I do recognise that different analysts see different growth figures each year, depending on the methodology they use and the data they sample. However they do all tend to converge on a similar cumulative result over an extended period of time.
Cheers,
Shadow.
My belief is that Residex's granular statistics are innacurate, based on similar areas I have observed. That is all.
Thanks for your advice. I did my research and decided not to buy in 2002 in Sydney although I could buy. So after 5 years, financially I am 200k better off than if I bought in 2002. I am predicting zero growth at least in the future 5 years after an initial burst and some later recovery.
So I would be close to half million better off than if I chose to buy in 2002. Half million is not a bad number and thanks for good information in this forum for that. Although I read the same information, I came away with the different conclusion and benefited from that.
That's quite incredible seeing as you didn't join until 2008
Perhaps i didn't make myself clear. I made my initial 2002 decision without knowing this forum. I was very tempted to buy in 2007 after some years of easing (then a false recovery signal) in Sydney market and I started reading this forum (joined after a while). However, I still came away with the conclusion that Sydney market would tank again in 2008. So thanks to this forum, I didn't buy in late 2007 and suffer.
Hey Sphinx, you've shown us that if you stuff up your timing completely, you'll have to be content with 5% compound growth over 20 years in Sydney (not to mention heaps of extra rent over time).
Given the importance you place on timing the market, have you considered how well things can go if you get it right? How did you go with the calcs based on the years 1986 and 1999?
Given the importance you place on timing the market, have you considered how well things can go if you get it right? How did you go with the calcs based on the years 1986 and 1999?
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