Latest ABS housing figures

Dave
only a fool would think that things ONLY ever go up.
Click to expand...

Only a fool would look at these figures without some skepticism.
I have friends who still rent, and are still waiting for the prices to "fall further".
Try telling them that there are always submarkets within submarkets in property. Weighted average of Sydney means absolutely nothing!!. Median for Sydney means absolutely nothing!!. Which part of Sydney are we talking about Dave!!. North Shore, Inner West, Western Suburbs?.
 
What's more Dave!!. One large source of bias within the ABS numbers is the fact that the ABS only considers detached houses.

The ABS index does not include attached forms of housing, such as apartments, townhouses, villa's, etc. This results in the ABS index being biased towards both more valuable properties and, by definition, just houses.

Even the ABS acknowledge that they need to update their methods.
RPData looks to be the most accurate.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/House-prices-pd20090504-RQ6X5?OpenDocument&src=spb
 
investor888 said:
What's more Dave!!. One large source of bias within the ABS numbers is the fact that the ABS only considers detached houses.

The ABS index does not include attached forms of housing, such as apartments, townhouses, villa's, etc. This results in the ABS index being biased towards both more valuable properties and, by definition, just houses.

Even the ABS acknowledge that they need to update their methods.
RPData looks to be the most accurate.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au...-prices-pd20090504-RQ6X5?OpenDocument&src=spb
Click to expand...

Take a step back sunshine, no real arguments from me.

Just saying the figures (one set) are out and those figures (one set) are down.

I have personally never been a fan of ABS , but prefer to look at all sources.

Dave
 
So, watched Kohlers couple of minutes on the ABC news and they showed a graph of house prices having dropped a smidge, but he did say, that the ABS only counts houses, not units or detached housing, so the top end of town was counted but the cheaper stuff would not show up.

So, the figures from ABS mean squat

Did I hear that right?

Dave
 
BoatBoy said:
Did I hear that right?

Dave
Click to expand...

Yes you did...! ;)

I also heard the ABC newsreader call it a "plunge" in house prices....plunge....:confused:

I call ASX down 50% a plunge.........not ABS figures on 1/3rd of the market....

ASX prices are live and there for all to see....no interpretations, nothing missing, just fact...

BTW...hope everyone is now cashing out after the nice little run up on the ASX...geeze..I shoulda held those BXB and ANN shares a bit longer than Fridy.....bugger...profit is a profit tho....:D

Very happy...:)
 
Yes Dave, you did hear right
"So, the figures from ABS mean squat"Did I hear that right?"
Click to expand...

We're a bit slow today aren't we Dave.

Didn't I tell you exactly the same thing above.

"ABS only considers detached houses.
The ABS index does not include attached forms of housing, such as apartments, townhouses, villa's, etc. "
 
Last edited:
investor888 said:
Yes Dave, you did hear right

We're a bit slow today aren't we Dave.

Didn't I tell you exactly the same thing above.

"ABS only considers detached houses.
The ABS index does not include attached forms of housing, such as apartments, townhouses, villa's, etc. "
Click to expand...

I'm sorry,
because you seemed to be having a dummy spit and intent on tearing the messenger a new one, I chose to ignore your rants until you regained your composure.

Dave
 
The ABS figures matter as they have no vested interest.

The ABS figures matter because they use actual - as distinct from reported - data

The ABS figures matter because, notwithstanding the unit impact, they show the trend.
 
Just curious about timing - how old are the ABS stats?
The latest report is for March 2009, using prices based on date of property exchange? what is this? Is this on settlement?
So are there houses that were bought (contract signed) in February and because of long settlement, then they do not show up in ABS stats?

Yes there may be a trend, but how old is the trend? 6 months ago?
 
Token Funder said:
The ABS figures matter as they have no vested interest.

The ABS figures matter because they use actual - as distinct from reported - data

The ABS figures matter because, notwithstanding the unit impact, they show the trend.
Click to expand...



And if all the numbers are added in what be the trend then?



ausmap_ind.gif
 
ILoveProperty
but how old is the trend? 6 months ago?
Click to expand...

Yes, the trend is there, but it's probably delayed 1-4mths. You can check the actual full report on the ABS site. The figures released are estimates, which then get revised twice over the next 6mths.

The ABS figures are just showing, in delay, what RPData has already shown. That is, 2-3mths ago, PRData was also showing negative figures, which have now turned positive. My guess is that the June and Sep ABS figures will be positive.

ABS national figures table
2008 1st estimate 2nd estimate Final estimate
March 1.1 0.4 0.7
June –0.3 –0.2 –0.8
September –1.8 –2.4 –2.6
December –0.8 –1.2 nya
2009
March –2.2 nya nya

"17 The delivery of VGs data relating to exchange date is delayed by the normal contract settlement and reporting processes. It is only possible to publish reliable house price movements based solely on VGs data after approximately six months. "
 
investor888 said:
ILoveProperty

Yes, the trend is there, but it's probably delayed 1-4mths. You can check the actual full report on the ABS site. The figures released are estimates, which then get revised twice over the next 6mths.

The ABS figures are just showing, in delay, what RPData has already shown. That is, 2-3mths ago, PRData was also showing negative figures, which have now turned positive. My guess is that the June and Sep ABS figures will be positive.

ABS national figures table
2008 1st estimate 2nd estimate Final estimate
March 1.1 0.4 0.7
June –0.3 –0.2 –0.8
September –1.8 –2.4 –2.6
December –0.8 –1.2 nya
2009
March –2.2 nya nya

"17 The delivery of VGs data relating to exchange date is delayed by the normal contract settlement and reporting processes. It is only possible to publish reliable house price movements based solely on VGs data after approximately six months. "
Click to expand...

I agree with you, I had same thought as from the market reality those price drop remind me of few months ago more then the present (even today building approval is very strong, ABS link
The important thing is weather and at how extend this home price data will be considered in RBA today rate decision and the coming up budget.
 
Residex, RPData and APM are all showing prices on the rise again.

ABS is the odd man out. There have been various explanations put forward for this, including that the ABS only track established houses, and that the ABS statistics may be weighed more heavily towards January data, while the other index providers include more of the February and March data.

I expect the next release of ABS statistics will reflect the rise, and also that the Q1 ABS figures will be revised upwards.

Furthermore, I expect the Q2 data from APM, Residex and RPData will show even stronger rises, due to the FHOG boost 'last hurrah' before Rudd replaces it with some alternative form of market stimulation.

Cheers,

Shadow.
 
BoatBoy said:
Take a step back sunshine, no real arguments from me.

Just saying the figures (one set) are out and those figures (one set) are down.

I have personally never been a fan of ABS , but prefer to look at all sources.

Dave
Click to expand...

i think he's just having a whinge at the stats - not you :)
 
Found this picture on another forum showing the averaging of the 3 indexes

btstats.gif


It would seem if ABS had added unit prices in that there would have been a difference in their figures.

Dave
 
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