Ahhh yes I meant brace. Don't say you weren't warned in 5 months' time. We all heard it here first.
Don't flatter yourself DB, you aren't the first to make this prediction
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Ahhh yes I meant brace. Don't say you weren't warned in 5 months' time. We all heard it here first.
Don't flatter yourself DB, you aren't the first to make this prediction
I remember when were there that Buffalo was often mentioned in the news as one of those areas suffering a steep decline, high unemployment, closing businesses etc - similar to Detroit and other areas nearby.Agreed. Who would pay more than $350k for these 100sqm land to be honest? Why wouldn't I spend the same on a 500sqm land in Point Cook? In fact why spend it at all when it's going to crash any way? Right now I can go to Buffalo, which is under 1 hour flight from Manhattan, and buy a big mansion with swimming pool for $30k and live like a king... something's amiss. Either America is grossly undervalued or there's going to be a lot of bankrupt Victorians in 5 months.
what's happening in 5 months Sanj? assuming we make it past the end of the Mayan calendar?
In 5 months time, people like this guy would have bought up the whole of the inner ring. Leading to further outrage regarding how it's unfair it is that FHB can't afford a double terrace in South Melbourne.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/melbourne-life/so-misses-seat-but-buys-house-20121210-2b5eu.html
This guy will be lucky to sell these things for $600k each after 5 months. I probably wouldn't buy it if he offered me. I remember not long ago they were only selling for $400k each.
I heard that the guy got the FHB bonus for this place as well, spending hard earnt tax payer money to speculate.
BIS is usually overly optimistic, so if they are saying flat/slightly negative growth, then Vic is probably in for a pretty significant downturn in prices.If BIS are saying that Vic is looking flat for 5 years it will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime - you can expect a bull run.
I heard that the guy got the FHB bonus for this place as well, spending hard earnt tax payer money to speculate.
it's awful of him to take advantage of legitimate, offered incentives.
I've been advocating a flat market in Melb / VIC for the last 2 years and I still believe we have a long way to go before any credible growth returns. Sure, certain pockets will do well, but we are talking macro-market here....
Many news articles talking about "2013 is the time to buy". The MSM is always used to hype a flat market and I expect many more articles to follow, in an attempt to try and instill some confidence back into the market.
I'm anticipating a flat market out to 2015, with the possibility of longer depending on how the global debt issues are resolved. The current monetization of government deficits is on the increase and nothing good can come of that. Even though Australia is in a relatively solid position, one only has to look at our interest rates trending down to see where we are in the macro economic cycle..... we aren't at the bottom yet, that is for sure!
If we add into the mix the global economic situation and where it is trending, any realist would take a flat market prediction as a good news story. Why? Well if the global markets remain flat & consumption remains flat, then unemployment pressures will surely increase.... that equals less tax revenue & increased social liabilities.... not to mention that we are on the cusp of an unfunded aging population crisis....
So, flat for 5 yrs.... I'll take that as a good news story!
Indifference,
Did you mean you're anticipating a flat market out until the 'start of 2015', or the 'end of 2015'? And by 'flat for 5 years', did you mean 'the last 2 years plus 3 more', or 'another 5 years from now'?
Melbourne has a rental vacancy rate double that of some states:
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/12/melbourne-pushes-rental-vacancies-higher-in-november/
As says in the article, there may be some seasonal reasons for the jump, but it was already high...
dredfern, my thought is that the bottom for Melbourne in nominal terms is still at least 18 months away, so personally I would wait. But I could be wrong. I was watching a video with Kyle Bass this morning (recommend a watch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUc8-GUC1hY) and he said something along the lines of the average length of housing corrections in OECD countries was around 6 years, taking around 4 years to get to the nominal bottom... Victoria didn't peak until late 2010 so could be 2014/2015 before a bottom is in.Hobo Jo,
This flat/dropping market is making saving for my new PPOR so much easier!
Will be at least 6-9 months before can buy, but difference between renting/buying is about 20K per year. Would you wait even longer?