Capital Gains in the next 12 months ?
- Thread starter PIppety
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Just a thought ... its off topic as usual.
I dont care where the best K growth is for the next 12 months, I wont be selling a property in 12months time.
Note, Im considering this from a long term wealth accumulation POV - and doing so to create some debate..... I dont necessarily believe the strategies are the best nor that the assumptions made would hold true.
Assume borrowing capacity is limited - say enough to purchase say 10 properties (note this is an assumption... use 1 or 100 if you'd prefer)
The other assumption is that the areas which growth the most over the next 12months will not be the best over 10years. (its probably worthwhile to debate this point as well.. please post some thoughts..)
For example I have two choices :
Strategy 1 : In order to maximise growth I should buy 10 properties in the area which will grow the best over the next 12mths. Then trade these properties for the next HOT SPOT 12mth later (ie the next 10 best properties which will grow the most over the next 12 months) or you may choose to hold because last years HOT SPOTS may have remained unchanged.
Strategy 2 : Buy and hold 10 properties in the suburbs which will have the most growth over a 10yr timeframe. Whilst this strategy means you sacrifice some potential growth (as you not in the fastest growing properties each year you also save on buy/sell costs)
Thoughts ?
I dont care where the best K growth is for the next 12 months, I wont be selling a property in 12months time.
Note, Im considering this from a long term wealth accumulation POV - and doing so to create some debate..... I dont necessarily believe the strategies are the best nor that the assumptions made would hold true.
Assume borrowing capacity is limited - say enough to purchase say 10 properties (note this is an assumption... use 1 or 100 if you'd prefer)
The other assumption is that the areas which growth the most over the next 12months will not be the best over 10years. (its probably worthwhile to debate this point as well.. please post some thoughts..)
For example I have two choices :
Strategy 1 : In order to maximise growth I should buy 10 properties in the area which will grow the best over the next 12mths. Then trade these properties for the next HOT SPOT 12mth later (ie the next 10 best properties which will grow the most over the next 12 months) or you may choose to hold because last years HOT SPOTS may have remained unchanged.
Strategy 2 : Buy and hold 10 properties in the suburbs which will have the most growth over a 10yr timeframe. Whilst this strategy means you sacrifice some potential growth (as you not in the fastest growing properties each year you also save on buy/sell costs)
Thoughts ?
G'day XBenX,
How about "Strategy 3" :- (Strategy 1 changed somewhat)
In order to maximise growth I should buy 10 properties in the area which will grow the best over the next 12mths. Then borrow against these properties as deposits for the next HOT SPOT 12mth later (ie the next 10 best properties which will grow the most over the next 12 months) or you may choose to hold because last years HOT SPOTS may have remained unchanged.
Maybe this will allow the "best of both worlds" .........
Regards,
How about "Strategy 3" :- (Strategy 1 changed somewhat)
In order to maximise growth I should buy 10 properties in the area which will grow the best over the next 12mths. Then borrow against these properties as deposits for the next HOT SPOT 12mth later (ie the next 10 best properties which will grow the most over the next 12 months) or you may choose to hold because last years HOT SPOTS may have remained unchanged.
Maybe this will allow the "best of both worlds" .........
Regards,
I agree with Les
One of my biggest regrets in the past is selling properties. I seem to always justify it to myself with thoughts like "I am merely taking the gain" or "its the top of the market" or "I want to shift the equity from one property to another"
The reality is that every property I have sold in the past two years is now worth a lot more. (every = 4 properties.) The gain I have missed from these sales amounts to about $600K
On the other hand, whether I could have financed other deals without these sales is a moot point.
So, --- If equity and servicability are not a problem then I would agree with Les and say Strategy 3.
One of my biggest regrets in the past is selling properties. I seem to always justify it to myself with thoughts like "I am merely taking the gain" or "its the top of the market" or "I want to shift the equity from one property to another"
The reality is that every property I have sold in the past two years is now worth a lot more. (every = 4 properties.) The gain I have missed from these sales amounts to about $600K
On the other hand, whether I could have financed other deals without these sales is a moot point.
So, --- If equity and servicability are not a problem then I would agree with Les and say Strategy 3.
8 months down the line and at this I think the regionals are in the lead. Well at least the North Q'land ones are 
See Change
See Change
With the perfect foresight required to pick these areas it's NOT the best strategy.Les said:
The best strategy with perfect foresight is to pick the winning lotto numbers, put all the winnings on a horse & bet all of those winnings on the appropriate number on a roulette wheel.
In light of our imperfect foresight, the best strategy is to have more information than most people & act on it appropriately
Cheers,
Aceyducey
ToeEdge said:
Im interested about these comments. We have had a few other threads about this issue.
The question I would like to ask is....
How big is the effect of investors on the property market?
And therefore what are the repercussions of the changes to taxes/duties.
Ive posted my opinions on this before but Id like to hear what everyone else thinks.
Maybe I should start a new thread for this <mods you can do this if you think its more appropriate?>
see_change said:8 months down the line and at this I think the regionals are in the lead. Well at least the North Q'land ones are
See Change
Id be thinking you are correct SC.
Who is going to grab the growth figures and give us a definitive answer? (change in median price - whilst dodgy is probably the best measure)
Im pretty sure the Residex qtrly reports have this info...
Aceyducey said:With the perfect foresight required to pick these areas it's NOT the best strategy.
The best strategy with perfect foresight is to pick the winning lotto numbers, put all the winnings on a horse & bet all of those winnings on the appropriate number on a roulette wheel.
In light of our imperfect foresight, the best strategy is to have more information than most people & act on it appropriately
Cheers,
Aceyducey
Know anyone with this insight Acey? Ive got a white van, some thugs, a hideout, some mind altering drugs and a chucky LOC for when he/she spills the beans =P
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