Will Brisbane outperform Sydney over the next 12 months?

Discussion in 'Property Investment - Other' started by Richard Feynman, 30th May, 2015.

?

Will Brisbane dwelling values outperform Sydney over the next 12 months?

Poll closed 29th Jun, 2015.
  1. Yes.

    21.1%
  2. No.

    50.4%
  3. Tie.

    6.5%
  4. I don't know.

    22.0%
  1. Richard Feynman

    Richard Feynman Mortgage Broker

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    In terms of percentage growth across all dwelling types.

    I think it won't, but the ensuing 12 months (from June 2016 on) is likely to be a different story.

    This poll closes in 30 days and votes are public.
     
    Last edited: 30th May, 2015
  2. jerrybee

    jerrybee Member

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    Hum, I think certain markets will but overall, I don't know.

    As for your OP, so you think it'll outperform in the next 12 months then fall back after that?
     
  3. Richard Feynman

    Richard Feynman Mortgage Broker

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    Yes. I reckon from Jun 2015-Jun 2016 Sydney dwelling prices will grow more (percentage terms) than Brisbane, and from Jul 2016-Jul 2017, Brisbane dwelling prices will grow more (percentage terms) than Sydney.
     
  4. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo Member

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    I agree with what you're saying in post #3 but it doesn't seem to match what you're saying in post #1.
     
  5. Bran

    Bran Member

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    There is no "I really bloody hope so" option.
     
  6. Rixter

    Rixter $uper Investor (Retired)

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    No for the first 12 months, then swing around thereafter.
     
  7. Richard Feynman

    Richard Feynman Mortgage Broker

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    Error corrected. Sorry to confuse and thanks for noticing :)
     
  8. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    Next year ? don't know

    Next five years ? Brisbane

    Cliff
     
  9. JDP1

    JDP1 Member

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    agree......
     
  10. lila77

    lila77 Member

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    That's what I wanted to choose as well
     
  11. el caballo

    el caballo Member

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    See_Change,

    Confident? Apologies if you've opined on the underpinning reasons elsewhere in the forum, but can I ask you to elaborate on your view?

    You were prescient with respect Sydney, hence some details on your Brisbane growth viewpoint would be most appreciated.

    Thanks
    Greg
     
  12. charlieandkath

    charlieandkath Member

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    I reckon pretty much the same.

    I have a feeling that South east Queensland will do well from now on as I believe there will be another mass exodus from Melbourne /Victoria mainly and Sydney as people seek a cheaper warmer lifestyle (especially the baby boomers). I can see the Sunshine Coast as a big beneficiary of this.

    I personally think government from both sides in Qld have stuffed the state in the last decade and along with the flooding issue in the south east has knocked a lot of confidence.

    Time to get in now though me thinks.
     
  13. jerrybee

    jerrybee Member

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    This always plays a big role. Baby boomers don't have to worry about a job so the employment situation means nothing to them. An average $1.5m house from Syd buys you a mansion on a 1000sqm block in Brisbane, with enough spare to purchase another townhouse outright for that sweet rental income.

    I've also heard older people tell me they've thought about moving to a warmer climate because the cold weather down south is killer on the joints / arthritis.
     
  14. hugh72

    hugh72 Member

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    Still working through oversupply and major hit from 2011 flood, that stigma will take time to ease. Next 12 months Sydney will do better IMO but over next 5 yrs Brisbane will out perform. The value for money proposition will be compelling
     
  15. see_change

    see_change Apprentice Timing Lord

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    Simple , Historically , Sydney Booms and Brisbane follows after . That was our reason to buy some nice properties in Brisbane in 13 ( Wynnum , manly , teneriffe ) . These are doing ok. In retrospect we should have bought in 2770 ,but everything's easy in retrospect . We were trying to get in early at that stage , which we did .

    Reasons why at the moment I think so at the moment . Lots of people in Sydney have made a lot of money out of property and they are thinking , gee that was easy , lets do it again .

    The dumb ones's ( IMHO ) say , lets buy another in Sydney .

    The smarter ones think , Sydney must be getting close to the top , where else can I buy ? Melbourne or Brisbane ?

    The really dumb one's realize in five years time that their last purchase in Sydney hasn't done as well as the one before . They realize Brisbane's done better than sydney in the last five years so that must be the place to buy ...


    Cliff
     
  16. HeadsOnBeds

    HeadsOnBeds Member

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    I saw this auction today

    http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-new+farm-119372995

    It went for $2.18mill. That's some good dollars in Bris even in one of the tightest held locals. I reckon 18 months ago might have got $1.7mill (guess). This property would have had flooding within 100 metres so I think that boats sailed. Lol
     
  17. JohnHenry

    JohnHenry Mister

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    So yes, in that case at the moment investing in Brisbane existing property is the better way than getting new Off The Plan apartment in fortitude valley, CBD, etc... ?
     
  18. jerrybee

    jerrybee Member

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    lol too funny. I certainly hope such people don't actually exist.
     
  19. JDP1

    JDP1 Member

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    then how smart /dumb are the ones who but OTP in southbank/docklands?:D
     
  20. C-mac

    C-mac Member

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    I think middle ring Brisbane and middle ring Gold Coast (I know it is a smaller city so basically I mean anywhere from say 2km - 10km from Surfer's Central), will do very well in the next 12 months and we might see a couple of postcodes in these locales, eclipse those of sydney...

    ...however. Sydney overall will win in this same 12 month period. Why? The star performer/niche postcode pockets of SEQ will be dragged down by severe inner CBD oversupply which will likely perform pretty poorly.

    The only wildcard that might change this, in the short (12 months) term; would be the Chinese factor. I've heard murmurs that they are warming to Brisbane as an expansion from Sydney/Melbourne focus, but I'm yet to see it in person.

    I have a business trip in mid June though. I might stay the weekend and attend a couple of auctions in affluent suburbs and CBD units, for ***** and gigs, just to see if there is any/heavy presence... Might change my views on inner CBD units in Brisbane if the Chinese factor is a major one.