Will Brisbane outperform Sydney over the next 12 months?

Discussion in 'Property Investment - Other' started by Richard Feynman, 30th May, 2015.

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Will Brisbane dwelling values outperform Sydney over the next 12 months?

Poll closed 29th Jun, 2015.
  1. Yes.

    21.1%
  2. No.

    50.4%
  3. Tie.

    6.5%
  4. I don't know.

    22.0%
  1. JDP1

    JDP1 Member

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    Actually no. From Melbourne. Lived, worked there, etc and want to go back to Melbourne from Brisbane...
     
  2. jerrybee

    jerrybee Member

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    Alright then, back to what I said - good analysis:)
     
  3. ej89

    ej89 Member

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    Just because the intent is there it doesn't mean that'll improve things. Brisbane reminds me of Benny Barba in the footy. At one point competed with the best and was one of the best, but he dropped off while others got better. He's one of the worst players around atm although he has the intent to be good enough to be one the best again, it aint happening anytime soon haha (I love my footy and it's Friday).. Brisbane may have the intent but that doesn't mean they'll be the third best economy again. Their economy sucks. They were in recession for two quarters of last year..Perth without mining will most likely stay ahead of Brisbane
     
  4. hugh72

    hugh72 Member

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    Perspective I think is dependent on time frame, if you are talking about the last 7 years well they have been a disaster literally. Expand out a little further and you see something different. Economic growth and population growth have risen and fallen over time and will continue to do so, what has already happened is yesterday's news and forward projections are what to look for when making investment decisions, whether that's shares or property.
     
  5. JDP1

    JDP1 Member

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    Ofcourse it takes.more than just intent. However without it, you are relying on luck, handouts etc
     
  6. jerrybee

    jerrybee Member

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    I think JPD1's point is also that Brisbane are trying to compete with Sydney and Melbourne whereas Perth is trying to compete with Brisbane. Whether Brisbane fails or not, the ambition is there.
     
  7. JDP1

    JDP1 Member

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    Yup. Right on.
     
  8. hugh72

    hugh72 Member

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    I don't think it's cities competing directly with each other rather it's various state governments which at different times do more to encourage businesses. This can be via payroll Tax, funding for industry and encouraging research and development. Combine these with the infrastructure spending ,prevaling economic conditions in certain industries at a particular time and you get different results. Population growth though is a key to strong economic growth historically.
     
  9. Azazel

    Azazel Member

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    Pretty good analogy. I'm sure the new government is trying, but they're pretty useless. As was the last lot. And the one before them - although they were pretty good at frittering away the gains from the biggest resources boom ever, and managing to lose QLD's AAA international credit rating. While unemployment continues to rise, the state will not be in a good... um... state.
     
  10. Richard Feynman

    Richard Feynman Mortgage Broker

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    Good time to post a sampling of where voting is at.

    A quarter of us say yes, half say no, a few expect a tie and a fifth have no idea.
     
  11. Ace in the Hole

    Ace in the Hole Don't compete, Dominate !

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    To be fair though, the correct answer at this stage is "I Don't know"
    Because nobody does know, so 20% answered correctly.
    It's only after the event that the people who gave their opinion will be judged correct or not.
     
  12. Richard Feynman

    Richard Feynman Mortgage Broker

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    Absolutely right :)
     
  13. C-mac

    C-mac Member

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    Hopefully Brisbane picks back up again, and seeks to become more competitive in industries where it can easily win. I know they are small but speaking from experience (read: day job); Media and Education (tertiary uni's) both appear to be doing pretty well and nabbing some of the demand from the southern states.

    But, those industries aren't much of a dent in the states GDP - maybe 10% at best.
     
  14. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

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    The median price may be half, but like for like property is more like a third
     
  15. INVSTOR

    INVSTOR O+

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    I have no idea! I was watching houses in Salisbury, Holland Park West, Nathan, Mansfield, Wishart, suburbs near St Thomas More College, Algester, Parkinson a bit over past few years as they looked like reasonable value but I haven't been watching them lately. I was reading 10-20k's from CBD is expected to do well. I prefer houses to apartments.
     
  16. sash

    sash Member

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    I have moved my focus to Melbourne and Geelong....the outer areas are moving quickly now!
     
  17. Rixter

    Rixter $uper Investor (Retired)

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    Gotta love Geelong :)
     
  18. JohnHenry

    JohnHenry Mister

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    Thanks for the suggestion mate.

    At least those area wasn't affected by the floods.

    I guess you're alright because those area wasn't even mentioned in the OTP projects that is being offered by my friends in Sydney.
     
  19. JohnHenry

    JohnHenry Mister

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    And one more thing to consider...
    Who is going to live in those newly built OTP apartments ?

    We need to know how much is the population growth and immigration rate coming to Brisbane area.

    One thing for sure is that Sydney immigration rate is always high due to the size and job opportunities over Brissy.
     
  20. C-mac

    C-mac Member

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    John Henry, the question you ask of Brisbane re: who is going to live in all those apartments... I'd ask the same of Sydney too. I have been reading conflicting reports about the actual volume of units being built. Sure, there is very high demand in Sydney in the inner 5km ring for new apartments and developers are tending to that need.

    What is personally more concerning in my humble observation is the sheer volume of apartments and units (12-packs and 18-packs mostly - with little to no parking!) That are popping up everywhere in Sydney'spoor-access suburbs in the 10km, 20km, 30km, 40km suburbs. A lot of these areas are family 'heartland' and developers cramming way too many small units into these areas is a red flag for me. So I point the question back at Sydney and ask "who is going to live in this new block of 1-bed, 0-parking units that is built 27km from the city (and is 3+ km from the nearest train station, and takes 3x connecting buses to get to cbd via public transport etc.).

    Too me, that presents as a great risk for metro Sydney. Like I said, they are doing the right thing and building 'up' in the areas where it is most needed (I.e. inner ring, and then on train nodes in the suburban network), that doesn't concern me. It's the alarming volume of units being built in far flung, difficult to access suburbs, on teeny tiny skerricks of land, that concerns me. In this sense, I think pockets of Sydney will see an oversupply. I know I'll cop a lot of flack for suggesting that ANY of Sydney +50km could have a risk of oversupply, but its about building the right stock type in the right areas; something that I'm not sure is being done.

    Brisbane is (somewhat ) more sensible at the moment but faces different challenges. I'd argue that units are being built in mostly the right places for the right demo's, but at too big a scale based on population growth predictions. The other dynamic in Brisbane is that (again, in my humble opinion only), I've observed different housing stock behaviours. People there appear to be more adverse to apartment living; they still value back yards, more space, pet-friendly etc. much more than most top-dollar-job-obsessed folks in Sydney, and I think they still value houses over units in many parts.