Ii've dropped all my long positions this afternoon like a hot potato.
China to blow up this year...
- Thread starter DanielG
- Start date
Do you mean the print was so tiny or the intellectual content a trifle challenging? (Just kidding
). I was fascinated that he found this parallel thinking with 17th century economic policies of the East India company and China.
the font was stupid small and his syntax was a little ... i dunno, odd?
You want more!!!!!
LIBOR Euro QE hardly touched it.....but some of the euro yield curves were propped up......keep an eye on the UK's.
SSEC Watch it, daily.....Why? cos the govt may have reached a ceiling in ability to finance short term debt....
"China failed to draw enough bids at a treasury bill sale for a second time in a month on speculation banks are seeking higher returns in longer-maturity debt. The finance ministry sold 17.4 billion yuan ($2.5 billion) of the 20 billion yuan of 273-day securities on offer at an average yield of 1.72 percent, compared with 1.54 percent at the last sale, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. China didn’t complete sales of 273-day and 91-day debt on April 9."
LIBOR Euro QE hardly touched it.....but some of the euro yield curves were propped up......keep an eye on the UK's.
SSEC Watch it, daily.....Why? cos the govt may have reached a ceiling in ability to finance short term debt....
"China failed to draw enough bids at a treasury bill sale for a second time in a month on speculation banks are seeking higher returns in longer-maturity debt. The finance ministry sold 17.4 billion yuan ($2.5 billion) of the 20 billion yuan of 273-day securities on offer at an average yield of 1.72 percent, compared with 1.54 percent at the last sale, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. China didn’t complete sales of 273-day and 91-day debt on April 9."
Well, I thought about eu quite abit lately, I don't think there is a problem for the euro when you see oil plunging like there is no tomorrow (spot prices now for the WTI below 70 us$, copper is also plunging like no tomorrow at 3.02 US$ right now (and eu and us market are not open yet). europe import oil and gas in the first place and if a weak euro is still stronger then those where is the problem? eu business pay cheaper import and have export boosted by the low euro.
Eu bonds have been very stable in the last week (thanks to the ecb), german and even french 10 year bond are at record low yield (I am still surprised the french yield is 0.8% lower then the italian). also is not just those eu market going to head down but also the china sse index today is down 4% to below 2600
here you go with a chart of DR copper
copper is at 2.94 right now (20% off peak) iron ore spot price is down somewhat 15% from peak 3 weeks ago too (but the iron ore spot market is dodgy and manipulated and can get very illiquid), funny also that BDI is up and shipping iron ore to china is up quite a bit since peak of prices, are ships wondering around waiting to unload in search for better pricing or at least some customers?
Everyone got EU on the radar but China is a key player and the 5% drop in Shangai yesterday is much more of an effect on australia then any european trouble. As I said before Australia's future is NOT in australia's hands
Blue-Card,just have to ask what will you do next,this sort of market turns very quickly this time of year,i'm just glad i bought into some 100$ us bills a few months back..willair..
check copper and bdi over longer time frames...copper has a long way to fall yet....and bdi never recovered to pre gfc levels....
Will, considering the markets have ranged since oct09, BC will have heaps of time to get back in. Volatility like this is nice to day or swing trade.
watching at present.
i shouldn't even be in the market to be honest, i haven't got the time to properly study and monitor my trades.
I arrived in Beijing this morning, and one of my "unofficial" tasks while I'm here is to get a local viewpoint of the property market here, and whether its as dire as some have suggested.
So, my report so far is that there is definitely a lack of obvious building activity on the drive from the airport to town. I saw one building project btw 4th and 3rd ring road and 2 at the 2nd ring road. (after the 2nd ring road, I took a phone call, so didn't notice anything closer in)
Before the Olympics, there were cranes everywhere, so definitely a slow down in building in this part of town.
But I will investigate with my colleagues and try to get a sense from them of what is happening on the ground. Our company has just leased a new commercial property, so the FD here should have a good idea of how much office and warehouse space is around............
Pen
So, my report so far is that there is definitely a lack of obvious building activity on the drive from the airport to town. I saw one building project btw 4th and 3rd ring road and 2 at the 2nd ring road. (after the 2nd ring road, I took a phone call, so didn't notice anything closer in)
Before the Olympics, there were cranes everywhere, so definitely a slow down in building in this part of town.
But I will investigate with my colleagues and try to get a sense from them of what is happening on the ground. Our company has just leased a new commercial property, so the FD here should have a good idea of how much office and warehouse space is around............
Pen
Will be interesting to have some "on the ground" opinion an your take on things Penny.
Reports are that entire aparment blocks and precincts of new stock are vacant....without a resident in site. Not sure where exactly though, and how planned these communities were from an amenity and infrastrucutre standpoint.
Keep in touch
Reports are that entire aparment blocks and precincts of new stock are vacant....without a resident in site.
Not sure where exactly though, and how planned these communities were from an amenity and infrastrucutre standpoint.Keep in touch
They could try putting Ouzo in their cars
or.........they could use the home made tzipouro (raki/grappa). More like rocket fuel for the car
It would ceratinly clean the fuel injectors when partying in greece it was weird the way your voice disappeared the following morning. i was told the nightclub owners put metho into the spirit bottles. either that or i just drank too much
i tried that grappa...seriously horrible stuff! maybe a good additive for biodiesel as well?
i tried that grappa...seriously horrible stuff! maybe a good additive for biodiesel as well?
Wow guys....you are all now believers
No, I'm not a believer that China will crash. I think that there is movement in the economic cycle in every market, and that there are inbuilt "stablisers" which will help to stop it from crashing. I think the building boom in the main cities had already tapered off, which certainly seems to be reflected in the lack of new building work in Beijing.
What I see in our industry(healthcare) is a gradual move from quantity to quality..... the Chinese are becoming more discerning, and wanting better quality products. The salaries are increasing, so they can't do the cheap/ nasty production as competitively anymore, so they are looking to manufacture better quality products.
Pen
Sounds like you guys had a death wish! Youve got some cahonies for having a crack at it il give you that!!
Had a good chat to one of my colleagues yesterday....and went for a big drive all around Beijing.
According to her, there is a lot of new development, both resi and commercial, btw 5th and 6th ring road. We went out in that direction, and I would agree - there is clearly alot happening. There are a number of new "business parks" being built, which provide newer buildings, nicer amenities etc than the ones downtown. It reminded me of Norwest Business Park, or that kind of area. In the park where our business is relocating to, Johnson and Johnson and a number of other big multinationals have set up shop.
Most people are moving out to this area, because they can't afford downtown Beijing, with prices around 25000RMB per sqm. (I hope that is the right amount.. I get confused with all the extra 00's!!) . So, it really does have a similar feeling of people moving out new estates round kellyville etc. Except with apartments instead of mcmansions. And similarly to Kellyville, there is no public transport, so everyone has to drive to work, and the traffic is getting worse.
She is from Inner Mongolia and I asked her about the "ghost town" there, discussed in an earlier post. She said it was built by the local govt, in an area which is a mining town. Most of the people there earn around 1000RMB per week/month?, and the homes are way too expensive for them. It would take 50-75 years to pay the mortgage. So, they are sticking to the "old town" which is close by.
In terms of the economy, she said that in the big cities, they are aware of the GFC, but outside of that, most people dont feel any impact from it. The main issue with unemployment is with uni grads. But it seemed to be not so much an issue of the economy as that these are the first generation of the "One child" policy, and it was felt that they have all been raised without discipline or correction, and they are unemployable in a responsible position until they have had some work experience at the bottom of the ladder. eg our company has just employed a new receptionist (not admin assistant or anything.. just to answer phones and greet people) .... she recently graduated from a law degree. Her new position means that the girl that was the receptionist for the past 2 years has now become an admin assistant. She also had a uni degree.
I'll try to get some insight today into what the vacancy rates are like.....
cheers
Pen
According to her, there is a lot of new development, both resi and commercial, btw 5th and 6th ring road. We went out in that direction, and I would agree - there is clearly alot happening. There are a number of new "business parks" being built, which provide newer buildings, nicer amenities etc than the ones downtown. It reminded me of Norwest Business Park, or that kind of area. In the park where our business is relocating to, Johnson and Johnson and a number of other big multinationals have set up shop.
Most people are moving out to this area, because they can't afford downtown Beijing, with prices around 25000RMB per sqm. (I hope that is the right amount.. I get confused with all the extra 00's!!) . So, it really does have a similar feeling of people moving out new estates round kellyville etc. Except with apartments instead of mcmansions. And similarly to Kellyville, there is no public transport, so everyone has to drive to work, and the traffic is getting worse.
She is from Inner Mongolia and I asked her about the "ghost town" there, discussed in an earlier post. She said it was built by the local govt, in an area which is a mining town. Most of the people there earn around 1000RMB per week/month?, and the homes are way too expensive for them. It would take 50-75 years to pay the mortgage. So, they are sticking to the "old town" which is close by.
In terms of the economy, she said that in the big cities, they are aware of the GFC, but outside of that, most people dont feel any impact from it. The main issue with unemployment is with uni grads. But it seemed to be not so much an issue of the economy as that these are the first generation of the "One child" policy, and it was felt that they have all been raised without discipline or correction, and they are unemployable in a responsible position until they have had some work experience at the bottom of the ladder. eg our company has just employed a new receptionist (not admin assistant or anything.. just to answer phones and greet people) .... she recently graduated from a law degree. Her new position means that the girl that was the receptionist for the past 2 years has now become an admin assistant. She also had a uni degree.
I'll try to get some insight today into what the vacancy rates are like.....
cheers
Pen
seriously Penny, thansk so much for taking the time to post up.
on the ground analysis is so much better than pie-in-the-sky acedemic theory.
it's clear demand is there, just either too expensive or not properly situated. therefore, when the affordability key is in the lock, then a new door of growth will be opened.
all takes time, i guess. although i doubt anyone's wage in china is indexed with inflation!
on the ground analysis is so much better than pie-in-the-sky acedemic theory.
it's clear demand is there, just either too expensive or not properly situated. therefore, when the affordability key is in the lock, then a new door of growth will be opened.
all takes time, i guess. although i doubt anyone's wage in china is indexed with inflation!
