Come on ASX - get your *ss up

I entered bhp today at 35.77. A few reasons.

1.It has been trading in a 35-39 band for the past twelve months so hopefully it will do this again one more time.

2. The fall in iron ore price has wiped out smaller miners and may be beneficial to bhp which has more diversified assets and higher grade iron.

3. The overall market is down today.

4. The technical indicators MACD and bollinger bands look suitable.

5. Various analysts - motley fool and intelligent investor - have a buy recommendation on bhp

6. Dividend is close to 4%

If it can go up one to two dollars in the next two months I will be pleased. I am expecting a little bit more short term price drop perhaps and then rise hopefully.

Are my reasons sound?

imageChart.axd


China,imho,,just my observations most hower around the average and from experience but not trading in BHP,THE 50/50 odds on a higher deviation decline always goes faster as it moves away from the average..
 
imageChart.axd


China,imho,,just my observations most hower around the average and from experience but not trading in BHP,THE 50/50 odds on a higher deviation decline always goes faster as it moves away from the average..

Sorry I dont quite follow what you mean by higher deviation decline goes faster as it moves away from average?
 
I like your reasoning China, but how great would it be if we all had a crystal ball. If only reasoning was all it took to work out what was going to happen next - we'd all be worth a mint by now! I'll keep an eye on that one myself now too.

Might I also suggest having a look at SRX (Sirtex - Medical). Their announcements throughout this year have driven their prices higher and higher on a regular basis. Also, based on the last few years, they pay their dividend around late September (no announcement for this year, as yet), so it could be worth getting in now. Also, check their growth over the past 1, 5 etc years.

KayTea

Hopefully some reasoning behind our investment decisions may just slightly move the odds in our favour but obviously no guarantees.

Thanks for the tip on SRX - seems to be in favour with many analysts at the moment.
 
RIO is linked to Iron ore Price, unless Iron ore price moving up again RIO unlikely to move up any time soon

CCL - this wont recovered short term, lightly to be trade in this tight range market waiting for an update in October from CEO at AGM ... it will either move up or down depending on what is being said at AGM

WBC not sure on this one.
 
Sorry I dont quite follow what you mean by higher deviation decline goes faster as it moves away from average?

Just look at the chart what does that tell you over the 10 year period,
this is not something that one lives on the hope that the unit price will go up sometimes they go the other way a lot quicker then anyone thinks..
It's hard for me to explain in words but charts do not lie..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaussian_units#History
 
CCL - this wont recovered short term, lightly to be trade in this tight range market waiting for an update in October from CEO at AGM ... it will either move up or down depending on what is being said at AGM

.

I think there is good money to be made in stocks which you believe will keep moving in tight range. If you believe that you can reliably see the lows and highs, then there must be good opportunity. It is only when there is an unexpected breakout from the range that trouble appears.
 
Wish I hadn't Sold my Ramsay(RHC) Shares, Been going Gang busters the last few years
:(
I prefer my Gambling at the Casino, you get free drinks!
 
Wish I hadn't Sold my Ramsay(RHC) Shares, Been going Gang busters the last few years
:(
I prefer my Gambling at the Casino, you get free drinks!

If you held on to RHC, you would be shouting everyone free drinks. But I wonder how RHC is going to do now that Mr. R has departed.
 
I think there is good money to be made in stocks which you believe will keep moving in tight range. If you believe that you can reliably see the lows and highs, then there must be good opportunity. It is only when there is an unexpected breakout from the range that trouble appears.

That is the hard part, I mean that is just my opinion the market is a wild beast unpredictable and uncontrollable and if you can adjust your risk and reward and see opportunity to enter and exit

cant see why you cant make money for a few weeks until AGM.

Longer term (15 months plus) I think it will recover and trade much higher than current price.

I am waiting for AGM update as well before I make my move
 
Scary thing is, a couple of Year 12 school girls put me onto this little 'gem' as part of our participation in the ASX Schools Sharemarket Game (yep, I'm teaching them all about in investing from an early age - I wish someone had done that for me..........)

KayTea

My Son did the ASX Game last year, I also pointed out to him that it's a gambling game over such a short period...it's not investing :rolleyes:

They might be encouraging the students to research blue-chip businesses with strong earnings prospects, low debt levels or high returns on total capital, but it may just be a speculative play or two that wins the short term game...the lesson?

Naturally - listed shares to sell last week (at a set price) and the guts then fell out of the stock market.

What do you mean by "the gut's fell out of the market" Lizzie, looks like from the 1st to the 10th is roughly about on par, and over the last 30 days its up 4%
 
Well, just entered the share market yesterday for the first time since buying my first property over 7 years ago. Ahhh, the nostalgia. Feels great :) only a small holding though. $5,000 on ADO. would've put in a lot more (50k+) but need this money for a splitter project I am currently doing.
 
Still learning on shares and when i'll get to the knowing stage,i'll take the punt,well not exactly punting but go with something that has substance long term.
 
Might I also suggest having a look at SRX (Sirtex - Medical). Their announcements throughout this year have driven their prices higher and higher on a regular basis.

KayTea


I've been giving Sirtex a plug on here for years.

http://somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=597237&postcount=328

http://somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=960865&postcount=19

My biggest holding now with a quarter million dollars worth. Initial investment is nearly a ten bagger but I've added more along the way.



See ya's.


ps. Anyone who takes free advice about shares from a farmer, on a property forum deserves to lose all their money. I'm also obviously just ramping this stock hoping to offload to some suckers.
 
What do you mean by "the gut's fell out of the market" Lizzie, looks like from the 1st to the 10th is roughly about on par, and over the last 30 days its up 4%

The stock market on a whole has been on par ... but our four major holdings I was looking to offload dropped by around $100,000 between them
 
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