Do you agree with Robert Kiyosaki's prediction? GFC in 2016....

I haven't made a fortune 'being' pessimistic. Being pessimistic enables you to see risks and problems more clearly. You simply avoid them where you can and pick the eyes out of the opportunities that present themselves. For me that's business not property.

This is where most here misunderstand me. I'm pessimistic about the future but optimistic about my chances. Property is a long slow grind with very low annualised returns. Using mega leverage and arbitraging market spreads is high risk in most areas of investment. While volatility is considered low (hence perceived lower risk) exiting a position is often laborious and time consuming effectively neutralising the low volatility advantage.

Business is much more fun and the returns are magnitudes higher with much faster turnaround. The difference though is I use little if any leverage (low to no risk) so total amounts may not compare to property over time.

Would you consider yourself a Pessimist or a Realist Freckle?
 
I've been pessimistic for over a decade and never made more dosh. Guess that scotches that old wives tale. I know a few other pessimists who are rolling in it as well.

Freckle; said:
I haven't made a fortune 'being' pessimistic. Being pessimistic enables you to see risks and problems more clearly. You simply avoid them where you can and pick the eyes out of the opportunities that present themselves. For me that's business not property.

So in essense being pessimistic in property didn't make you any dosh but being optimistic in your business made you a lot of dosh. Therefore I can conclude that Paul@PFI statement still stands and your first response was misleading.
 
I always find it amusing how two people can read the same thing and have two completely opposite interpretations.

It's the words "of each" that suggested it to me. So 50% of both optimists and pessimists are wrong, depending on the situation. I'm bemused how you didn't get that, I'm baffled ;)
 
I get the feeling Australia will be in recession well before the end of 2016, unless a foreign government stimulates our economy like China did in '09.
 
So in essense being pessimistic in property didn't make you any dosh but being optimistic in your business made you a lot of dosh. Therefore I can conclude that Paul@PFI statement still stands and your first response was misleading.

Try re-reading my statement a few times. You'll eventually get it ...it's not hard.

Your conclusion is both illogical and inaccurate.
 
It's the words "of each" that suggested it to me. So 50% of both optimists and pessimists are wrong, depending on the situation. I'm bemused how you didn't get that, I'm baffled ;)

I'm bemused at how you can rationalise illogical conclusions. Somewhat of a circular argument.
 
You're never wrong, even when you are hey Freckle. Circular argument? Sounds like every conversation with you I've seen on this forum.
 
According to the interweb of information, Kiyosaki has been promoting Gas, Grubb, Ground, Guns and Gold as what's required to survive the coming global financial collapse in 2016, that he says this one
will make the GFC look like a teddy bear?s picnic
he's also said that
America will become the next Zimbabwe

Kiyosaki's quotes were from a story Is the US at risk of a hyperinflation collapse?

On another note, you can download a book called Unfair Advantage (provided by RK) here for free link
 
You're never wrong, even when you are hey Freckle. Circular argument? Sounds like every conversation with you I've seen on this forum.

Jeez mate ....think about it??????



Quote - Jagg;

So 50% of both optimists and pessimists are wrong, depending on the situation.

this ain't hard...
 
Last night I was googling, and came across this.
It is a long read (an interview)..and yes, is trying to sell a book...but I don't think we can discount everything he says.

I have always said...watch the USA...when they are in trouble, the rest of us are too.
They haven't been able to get them themselves from under their debt.

If this interview can be believed, it's going to get pretty bad....at lest for those unprepared, which is probably, most of us, to some extent.


http://moneymorning.com/jim-rickards-coming-great-depression/

"Many in the U.S. Intelligence Community fear a 25-year Great Depression is unavoidable?
What if Jim's Right?(Please review the transcript from today's interview to discover how you and your family can stay safe from this $100 trillion catastrophe)STEVE MEYERS:

My name is Steve Meyers.

And I want to thank you for taking part in this exclusive Money Morning interview with Jim Rickards, the Financial Threat and Asymmetric Warfare Advisor for both the Pentagon and CIA.

Recently, all 16 branches of our Intelligence Community have come together to release a shocking report."
 
Is Jim Rickards a gold bug?

It seems he is referred to, in those terms.

A couple of days ago Donald Trump spoke.
I may not like the guy, but I also don't think he is an idiot.

This is part of the news report.


http://www.moneynews.com/Outbrain/Trump-Aftershock-American-Economy/2012/11/06/id/462985/



Billionaire Tells Americans to Prepare For 'Financial Ruin'

Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.Moneynews.com/Outbrain/T...n-Economy/2012/11/06/id/462985/#ixzz3LSpwbzsY
Urgent: Should Obamacare Be Repealed? Vote Here Now!The United States could soon become a large-scale Spain or Greece, teetering on the edge of financial ruin.

That?s according to Donald Trump, who painted a very ugly picture of where this country is headed. Trump made the comments during a recent appearance on Fox News? ?On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.?

According to Trump, the United States is no longer a rich country. ?When you?re not rich, you have to go out and borrow money. We?re borrowing from the Chinese and others. We?re up to $16 trillion in debt.?

He goes on to point out that the downgrade of U.S. debt is inevitable.

?We are going up to $16 trillion [in debt] very soon, and it?s going to be a lot higher than that before he gets finished. When you have [debt] in the $21-$22 trillion, you are talking about a downgrade no matter how you cut it.?

Ballooning debt and a credit downgrade aren?t Trump?s only worries for this country. He says that the official unemployment rate ?isn?t a real number? and that the real figure is closer to 15 percent to 16 percent. He even mentioned that some believe the unemployment rate to be as high as 21 percent.

?Right now, frankly, the country isn?t doing well,? Trump added, ?Recession may be a nice word.?
 
Billionaire Tells Americans to Prepare For 'Financial Ruin'

Idiot's about 5 years late. This is the guy who took his father's fortune and nearly lost it several times. He was saved by offloading his debt to partners/shareholders. In other words his very good investment banker team.

Joe Citizen has been systematically stripped of his wealth for the past decade or more. The GFC08 event simply accelerated that process to cover systemic losses and keep the system afloat for a little bit longer.

The MSM has tried to put lipstick on this pig since 08 but everywhere you look you see ever widening cracks appearing. Crashing oil is signalling an oil glut partly due to shale oil but largely due to falling consumerism.

The crash is underway.. has been for a while now. I'd be surprised if we get to 2016 without this thing going full retard.

Most people I talk to, either on forums or personally, seem to think any correction will be minor. That it will be fixed within a year or so. In other words a run of the mill recession. Ah ah. This baby is truely global, the depth and breadth of which has never been experienced before on any scale. And it isn't going to get fixed for decades, possibly 50+. The 1889 recession took 60 years to recover from - there are precedents.

How it plays out on an individual scale I can't say. There'll be winners and losers but mostly losers.
 
Idiot's about 5 years late. This is the guy who took his father's fortune and nearly lost it several times. He was saved by offloading his debt to partners/shareholders. In other words his very good investment banker team.

Joe Citizen has been systematically stripped of his wealth for the past decade or more. The GFC08 event simply accelerated that process to cover systemic losses and keep the system afloat for a little bit longer.

The MSM has tried to put lipstick on this pig since 08 but everywhere you look you see ever widening cracks appearing. Crashing oil is signalling an oil glut partly due to shale oil but largely due to falling consumerism.

The crash is underway.. has been for a while now. I'd be surprised if we get to 2016 without this thing going full retard.

Most people I talk to, either on forums or personally, seem to think any correction will be minor. That it will be fixed within a year or so. In other words a run of the mill recession. Ah ah. This baby is truely global, the depth and breadth of which has never been experienced before on any scale. And it isn't going to get fixed for decades, possibly 50+. The 1889 recession took 60 years to recover from - there are precedents.

How it plays out on an individual scale I can't say. There'll be winners and losers but mostly losers.

People will just keep sticking their head in the sand.
As you say...it truly is global.
Warren Buffett has dumped stock in Johnson & Johnson..along with others.

"They" say...don't watch what the billionaires say, but watch what they do.

In Australia, I think when the car manufacturers actually start closing down...that will be the start for it here.
 
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