Driverless cars - the biggest potential impact to real estate?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by jerrybee, 3rd Jun, 2015.

  1. Peter Parker

    Peter Parker Member

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    But as soon as you wish to leave early, late or go via somewhere else, you're on your own.

    Car pooling is not liberating like having your own car, bike or even good public transport is.
     
  2. LibGS

    LibGS Member

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    I can't speculate on house prices, but here is what I see as possible outcomes if we have fully driverless cars.

    1) Far fewer accidents, so we'll see a collapse of industries and services involved with car accidents. Smash repairs, insurance, tow trucks, road trauma at hospitals will be greatly reduced. If you insist on driving a manual car your insurance will cost a lot more.

    2) The number of cars will vastly reduce. I'll give you an example. We are a 2 car family. I mainly use the 2nd car to get to and from the station to take the train to work. With a self drive car we would only need 1. I would go to the station and then send it home. After work, I would call my wife to see if the car is free and she would send it via phone app to pick me up at the station. Car share schemes will become much more popular. Nowdays you have to go to a place where these cars are parked to grab one. But if the car can come to you when you order one, then the schemes will become more popular and a smaller pool of vehicles is required.

    3) Old and young people will have more mobility. Your 12yo wants to go visit grandma and grandpa a few suburbs away, put them in the car, send it off and then it will drive itself back.

    4) Taxi drivers, bus drivers, truck drivers. Greatly reduced. But bus routes will be more flexible. The bus will be able to deviate a bit off its standard route to pick up someone on a different street. Fewer drivers will mean lower costs, hopefully.

    5) Logistics will be even more 24/7 than it is now. As the auto courier is getting close to your house to drop off your latest purchase, it will call you. You'll go outside, and get your goods.

    6) Road lanes will be narrower. These things will drive precisely and can be closer together. Car trips during peak will be much faster because there will be less stop start on the road. Off peak, your car will be zooming along at 240 k/h.

    7) Emergency vehicles will get to destinations much faster. Cars will automatically pull over to allow them past and intersections will be controlled automatically.
     
  3. Perp

    Perp Member

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    I think you're vastly underestimating this technology's potential.
    Car pooling still has a human driving, and the human is by far the weakest link.

    I think what LibGS said is spot on, particularly regarding reduced accidents, which are a significant contributor to congestion.

    Traffic won't just flow "a bit better" without involving human flaws and foibles in the driving process, it will flow exponentially better.
     
  4. jerrybee

    jerrybee Member

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    Awesome post / ideas LibGS
     
  5. Perp

    Perp Member

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    I think driverless cars will prove to be so much safer that eventually you won't be allowed to drive cars manually; it will be seen as a crazy and irresponsible thing to do.
     
  6. willair

    willair xx

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    It would make driving more interesting,and depending on the soft computing algorithms with a mix of Artificial intelligence that would be needed to keep up the flow rate,it's already happening..

     
  7. jerrybee

    jerrybee Member

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    Agree. Automatic cars are boring anyway, why would you want them. The only fun vehicles to drive are manual, and I think over time they will be relegated to specialist race tracks etc.
     
  8. sanj

    sanj Member

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    An interesting article here http://www.businessinsider.com.au/u...estroy-10-million-jobs-reshape-economy-2015-2

    Ultimately I think it's inevitable, I'd also be selling my taxi plates if I owned any.

    If anything I think more people will be inclined to move closer in and away from the sprawl. In time if things happen as some think they might car ownership rates will come rigjt down and many people will simply use services like uber. Imagine how cheap it would be if there was no labour component. You might be paying $3 for short rides, possibly even less. Currently you're paying $6 with 70 or 80% gping to the driver. Uber could cut rates In half, make the extra % and still provide a much cheaper solution for people than owning a car.

    In order for it to work from a convenience POV you'd need density so I'm not sure if sprawl suburbs would be serviced as well.

    If you consider depreciation, insurance, petrol, rego, maintenance and everything else a lot of people are spending 10-20k a year on cars, or $30-60 a day. This excludes parking fees. It will eventually reach a point where it's simply uneconomical to own a car when a service like driverless uber is cheaper and in some cases more convenient
     
  9. Perp

    Perp Member

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    I didn't mean automatic vs manual gear shift, I meant "driven by computer" vs "driven by human".

    Humans will be prohibited from actually driving the car eventually; the cars won't even have controls for steering, speed, etc.
     
  10. jerrybee

    jerrybee Member

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    I know what you meant.

    What I meant was "automatic" cars are boring to drive anyway, so why would anyone complain about not being able to drive them if driverless cars are mandatory. The only fun cars to drive are manual.
     
  11. Hooray

    Hooray Member

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    Nice to know only your opinion matters when making decisions for all of us.
     
  12. Perp

    Perp Member

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    Wut? :confused: I think you're reading way too much into what jerrybee said.
     
  13. Biz

    Biz $17 DOLLAS YO!

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    if it means i can get pissed and then home safely, sign me up!
     
  14. Biz

    Biz $17 DOLLAS YO!

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    Must be an auto "driver". ;)
     
  15. jerrybee

    jerrybee Member

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    ha!

    Don't get me wrong, I love driving manuals. I think all of us - manual AND auto will be pushed off, relegated to specialist driving tracks. So we're all in it together.
     
  16. LibGS

    LibGS Member

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    Uber recently poached 40 top robotics resrearchers and engineers.

    Uber poaches 40 peopIe from "partner" Carnegie Mellon


    I can't wait for my Johnny Cab!
     
  17. Paul@PFI

    Paul@PFI Tax, SMSF & Planning

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    I cant get my high end Garmin GPS to identify where I am at times so I cant see how the driverless car will have any clue where it is and where its going.

    This morning it informed me of a accident creating a traffic hazard. As I stopped in the queue of cars 3km long.
     
  18. willair

    willair xx

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  19. HiEquity

    HiEquity Member

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    Anyone using Uber already has to question whether it is worth owning that second car. A trip that costs $25 in a taxi costs $8 with Uber and they are getting quicker to arrive than taxis anyway. Doing some clear headed numbers on the cost of ownership of a car makes Uber look pretty attractive right now for a lot of people.

    If those cars are driverless, the cost comes down even more. There is no reason the same car that dropped you off at the shopping centre needs to be the same one that picks you up. Just use an Uber like connectivity app on your smart phone, send out a pickup request and the nearest driverless car in the area comes in to pick you up and take you to wherever you want to go. But then you won't need to go to the shopping centre because your groceries will be delivered to you by the driverless car anyway. Shopping centres will become entertainment / social gathering places more and more than they already are.

    I'm already reconsidering how many garages to have in my new house design. This has the potential to significantly reduce the amount of land that gets wasted under driveways and garages and the massive waste in owning a car that only gets driven 5% of the time. If you need a car for a country trip, just specify the type of driverless car you want.

    It may take awhile to happen but I can't see anything stopping this trend - Uber is showing that already. Not to mention that a lot of these cars around the city will be EVs.
     
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  20. HiEquity

    HiEquity Member

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    BTW I just read sanj's linked article and agree with all of it, depending on the timeframe for the technology to actually get there, which I have NFI about...