Election 2013: 14th Sept - the official thread

[Peter 14.7]

Well Everyone,

We have a date, September 14th 2013, in case you were unsure.

So I thought, as we always have passionate debates on politics here, that we needed a thread to gather our opinions for all. So here it is.

Can I also ask we keep comments policy driven and not personal. Personally I don't care if someone has a big butt or wears Speedos too often, as much as the future of our Country and it children.

First Question I ask is:

What does the the unprecedented move to announce a date 7 months in advance mean:

1. Is a shrewd ploy to trip the Opposition;
2. An sign of desperation from what some say is a weak PM;
3. An stamp of Authority to all, especially Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull;
4. An effort to take the Election and date speculation off the agenda?
5. Nothing at all.

And

• do you think it will advantage or disadvantage the incumbent, Labor?

All and any opinions welcome and please feel free to put your question/s as well to keep the thread live and fresh.

Lastly, I will start by saying, as a Victorian, this date falls in the middle of AFL finals so Ms Gillard must feel her beloved Western Bulldogs will not be featured (again) this year, lest she lose focus

Regards to all and let the games begin! Peter 14.7

 

[Ideo]

It's an interesting move - and may be a signifier of a desire to introduce fixed terms of parliament, which is not necessarily a bad move in my books.

I was listening to Hack on JJJ last night and they had on 3 MPs. A Liberal (Karen Andrews I think - turned it on halfway through), an ALP (Joel Fitzgibbon) and a Green (Adam Brandt).

You could see a certain level of professional relationship between Andrews and Fitzgibbon. It was another day at the office, couple of cheap points scored either way but an underlying respect. Brandt just came across as paranoid and whiney. Pretty poor show, but I didn't expect much more.

One of the interesting things was a pollster who was looking at the country state by state. There is currently a swing towards the ALP in Qld, that would see them pick up seats - but nowhere near enough to ward off the swing against them in NSW and Vic, and the smaller swing in Tas. In light of there being nothing else to assess it by, you have to wonder whether the Newman government cuts is behind that swing.

Anyway, we have 276 days left of a race to the bottom and cheap politicking by all and sundry, so might be an idea to buy shares in a hi-vis factory as both sides try and show how much of a working family they are.

 

[livewildcard]

Wake me up in 275 days for a recap.

 

[softmonkey]

3. A stamp of authority I think. A declaration by Juliar that "I intend to stay this very precise number of days, and if you backstab me, you will be seen as the evil person deliberately cutting short our remaining term, not a hero leading an necessary spill".

 

[Ed Barton]

[*]Is a shrewd ploy to trip the Opposition;

Abbott's not shy of making a gaffe and will be judged more critically now that we are in election mode.

Already, business bodies have called for early announcements of policy. It will give each side extra time to pick through the others policies; I believe an advantage for the incumbent.

[*]An sign of desperation from what some say is a weak PM;

No.

[*]An stamp of Authority to all, especially Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull;

Not entirely sure what you mean? To stop leadership challenges - then most likely.

[*]An effort to take the Election and date speculation off the agenda?

Maybe. Does this make Gillard look more 'presidential'?

[*]do you think it will advantage or disadvantage the incumbent, Labor?

Who knows, time will tell.

Can I also ask we keep comments policy driven and not personal. Personally I don't care if someone has a big butt or wears Speedos too often, as much as the future of our Country and it children.

Lastly, I will start by saying, as a Victorian, this date falls in the middle of AFL finals so Ms Gillard must feel her beloved Western Bulldogs will not be featured (again) this year, lest she lose focus

You just did post a personal post. While we might like to remove the personal from the political, most don't. Regardless of your political persuasion you wouldn't vote for me if you saw me budgie smugglers!

 

[truong]

8 months is too long for a campaign so I’m going to switch off till around August. But before doing that I’ll try to answer your question

What does the the unprecedented move to announce a date 7 months in advance mean:

1. Is a shrewd ploy to trip the Opposition;
2. An sign of desperation from what some say is a weak PM;
3. An stamp of Authority to all, especially Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull;
4. An effort to take the Election and date speculation off the agenda?
5. Nothing at all.

1. A ploy? If it is then there’s every chance this ploy wil boomerang on Gillard in the same way as all her earlier ones have: Rudd’s knifing, carbon tax betrayal, useless mining tax, Slipper coup, Thompson defence, surplus pledge etc… Lack of judgment, strong will and a small mind are a lethal mix in the hands of a politician.

2. Desperation? She probably thinks she won’t win if she sticks to the conventional method i.e either call a snap election now or wait till August to announce it. She’s kind of forced into taking this gamble.

3. I wouldn’t call it a stamp of authority but a show of weakness against a potential Rudd challenge.

4. On the contray, this very early announcement puts the election right in the middle of everyone’s agenda.

5. Best answer. Whatever advantage she thinks she may get from this will disappear in 2 days and her strategy will amount to nothing.

 

[Peter 14.7]

It's an interesting move - and may be a signifier of a desire to introduce fixed terms of parliament, which is not necessarily a bad move in my books.

.

I would also support fixed terms. Allowing the Government of the day to pick to suit circumstance is like a home ground advantage.

Will that reform come. Unlikely.

We in Aus seems to be unable to get agreement across our Country on the simple stuff like Education and Hospitals, even car licenses due to some fear of Federal Power.

Regards Peter 14.7

 

[Peter 14.7]

You just did post a personal post. While we might like to remove the personal from the political, most don't. Regardless of your political persuasion you wouldn't vote for me if you saw me budgie smugglers!

Hi Ed

Good answers above.

I note sure if you are serious here? If so I was giving and example, that Julia has the butt and Tony the Speedos and it does not matter, so I was trying to be balanced. Sorry if it was unclear.

I hope Australia never goes to a Presidential Style Election where if they like someone matters more than if they respect them. F D Roosevelt would never got elected in 2012.

Regards Peter 14.7

 

[Peter 14.7]

I was listening to Hack on JJJ last night and they had on 3 MPs. A Liberal (Karen Andrews I think - turned it on halfway through), an ALP (Joel Fitzgibbon) and a Green (Adam Brandt).

You could see a certain level of professional relationship between Andrews and Fitzgibbon. It was another day at the office, couple of cheap points scored either way but an underlying respect. Brandt just came across as paranoid and whiney. Pretty poor show, but I didn't expect much more.

One of the interesting things was a pollster who was looking at the country state by state. There is currently a swing towards the ALP in Qld, that would see them pick up seats - but nowhere near enough to ward off the swing against them in NSW and Vic, and the smaller swing in Tas. In light of there being nothing else to assess it by, you have to wonder whether the Newman government cuts is behind that swing.

Anyway, we have 276 days left of a race to the bottom and cheap politicking by all and sundry, so might be an idea to buy shares in a hi-vis factory as both sides try and show how much of a working family they are.

Qld is interesting. I am amazed that the people after smashing Labor have moved back in such a short time. Must be as they say " A week is long time in Politics". But is the move enough to affect the outcome?

I think a big issue in the near future is "Turnbull and Rudd : will either Challenge?" I don't know but if one does and wins, so will the other.

I think Gillard has been very savvy in announcing now it makes a change harder for the libs and thereby secures their greatest advantage, the dislike of Tony Abbott. If the Opp Leader was Costello, it would be a dead race.

It also cements her advantage over him compared to Rudd as a female with the claims that have stick that he is a "woman hater".

Regards Peter 14.7

 

[Ed Barton]

Hi Ed
I hope Australia never goes to a Presidential Style Election where if they like someone matters more than if they respect them. F D Roosevelt would never got elected in 2012.

We're almost there. We may as well admit defeat and go the whole hog!

 

[Tony3008]

I hope Australia never goes to a Presidential Style Election where if they like someone matters more than if they respect them. F D Roosevelt would never got elected in 2012.

Regards Peter 14.7

The extraordinary thing about FDR's presidency was the agreement with the press that they would never mention him being crippled from polio so able to walk only the shortest of distances with the aid of crutches, nor print any pictures that showed this. Can't imagine it happening today.

 

[dan c]

I doubt this will impact the election, as the legal system moves at a glacial pace, but an interesting federal politics development none the less.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-31/craig-thomson-arrested/4493722?WT.svl=news0

 

[dan c]

1. Is a shrewd ploy to trip the Opposition;
2. An sign of desperation from what some say is a weak PM;
3. An stamp of Authority to all, especially Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull;
4. An effort to take the Election and date speculation off the agenda?
5. Nothing at all.

Hi Peter,

FWIW, I'd say equal parts 2, 3 and 4, perhaps with a bit of No. 1 thrown in. Just a bit.

 

[Peter 14.7]

I doubt this will impact the election, as the legal system moves at a glacial pace, but an interesting federal politics development none the less.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-01-31/craig-thomson-arrested/4493722?WT.svl=news0

WOW

For those who did not click it is that Craig Thompson has been actually arrested for Fraud by the Police ( nsw I assume) . On wonders if the PM had a tip off? I assume not, as the timing could not be worse.

Again WOW. His lawyer is planning it down but the fact is Federal Politician don't get arrested for anything let alone Fraud that often.

Regards Peter 14.7

 

[Hoffy]

You just did post a personal post. While we might like to remove the personal from the political, most don't. Regardless of your political persuasion you wouldn't vote for me if you saw me budgie smugglers!

On Paul Murray live last night Sky News kept up its usual level of discussion when one panelist noted that it must have been a cold day, after viewing the usual clip of Mr Abbott in speedos.

Paul Murray laughed and carried on.

Imagine if someone commented on the size of Gillards breasts........ Unfathomable that that could happen.

 

[Hoffy]

Qld is interesting. I am amazed that the people after smashing Labor have moved back in such a short time. Must be as they say " A week is long time in Politics". But is the move enough to affect the outcome?

7

I don't think this is really happening at all outside the ranks of the public service. I'm yet to speak to anyone who voted for him that have changed their view (small sample size i know but not much less than some of these polls) He is doing what he was elected to do.

Even if it is happening, NSW will be more than enough to get the coalition over the line. There is some serious punishment to come there for Labor and it is only going to get worse the longer the ICAC inquiry goes on and the depths of the corruption is revealed. And to think Gillard wants the former NSW Premier on her team. Can her judgement really be that bad?

 

[Peter 14.7]

On Paul Murray live last night Sky News kept up its usual level of discussion when one panelist noted that it must have been a cold day, after viewing the usual clip of Mr Abbott in speedos.

Paul Murray laughed and carried on.

Imagine if someone commented on the size of Gillards breasts........ Unfathomable that that could happen.

Yes, personally I feel there are double standards. When the PM Partners makes a joke that:

“We can get a blood test for it (prostrate cancer) but the digital examination is the only true way to get a correct reading on your prostate so make sure you go and do that, and perhaps look for a small Asian female doctor is probably the best way,” he said, to laughter.

It was joke but if Abbott has said that, the cries would be "woman hater".

Personally i felt what Tim said was trying to make light of uncomfortable subject but in 2013 you get away with nothing.

Peter

 

[HotRod]

Racism/sexisim etc always seem to be one way.

Even heard stories of a person from a minority group call someone a pretty offensive name in earshot of other people. The insulted person then apparently said they would report them to the police, to whit the response was along the lines of "you're a racist". The sad thing is, the insulted person would probably be pulled up on those charges too. Crazy.

 

[Fifth]

Yes, personally I feel there are double standards. When the PM Partners makes a joke that:

“We can get a blood test for it (prostrate cancer) but the digital examination is the only true way to get a correct reading on your prostate so make sure you go and do that, and perhaps look for a small Asian female doctor is probably the best way,” he said, to laughter.

It was joke but if Abbott has said that, the cries would be "woman hater".

Personally i felt what Tim said was trying to make light of uncomfortable subject but in 2013 you get away with nothing.

Peter

I don't think that is a double standard. Tony Abbott is the leader of the Liberal Party and potential Prime Minister of Australia. Tim Mathieson is Somebody's Partner. Most people don't know his name let alone what he looks like. The gaffe was relatively unimportant because the man is relatively unimportant. Yes, if Abbott had made the comment there would have been a shedstorm. Likewise, a gaffe by Margaret Abbott would be more easily forgiven than a gaffe by Julia Gillard. We expect better from our leaders. Sometimes, perhaps, our expectations are a touch too high and rigid?

 

[dan c]

Even if it is happening, NSW will be more than enough to get the coalition over the line. There is some serious punishment to come there for Labor and it is only going to get worse the longer the ICAC inquiry goes on and the depths of the corruption is revealed. And to think Gillard wants the former NSW Premier on her team. Can her judgement really be that bad?

Great point Hoffy. I was amazed when I heard Iemma was a potential candidate. They should be running a million miles from anyone with the stench of NSW Labor on them.

It'll only take four Liberal seat gains to change government. They could pick those up in Western Sydney alone.