The top 3 100% (e.g. we're already seeing it, just a matter of how bad it gets), 4 - 75%, final 3 probably 50/50.
I think you misunderstand.... the question was
What probabilities do you place on these events causing something worse than the GFC ? If you still think the 1st 3 are 100% guaranteed, then you need to forget about gold & be looking at stockpiling rice, & buying some chickens.
And if it starts to look more likely, do you think it's possible to adapt to the new circumstances ?
Guess it depends on what you mean adapt, they will have to "react" in someway, probably the wrong way again ensuring any adaption will be drawn out. They will eventually adapt (what other option is there besides permanant chaos?), but I expect turmoil in the interim.
Has the last 6 months been turmoil ? When's this turmoil going to start ? Can you see opportunities to take until this turmoil actually does start ?
The bottom line is that it's about probabilities.... you feel there is a high probability that the US is doomed or at least gloomy for 10+ yrs.
I feel that it's a low probability because of the many changes that have happened since the last time.
Assuming that you are referring to the crisis recently triggered by subprime, what changes are you talking about?
The accounting rules you mentioned, TARP, Homeowners Affordability Scheme, Banking liquidity rules, House Prices falls (& subsequent rises), Stock Market 30% lower than it was then, IRs at historic lows, cash for clunkers, expiry of 99% of Subprime resets, mortgagor forebearance plans, keeping houses off the market (artificially
), $Bs in stimulus, .... to name but a few...
If it becomes significantly more likely that the US will fail as a state, then the most likely outcome for Australia will be better than that of most other countries.
I agree, Australia will be much better off than many other countries, but do not expect property or the markets to come out unscathed.
Sure, if it does happen, we'll go down with it, but not as far, and we'll recover quicker.
It is unlikely to happen overnight, so we'll have a chance to adapt.
Depends what you mean by 'it' I guess. We won't adapt to a market black swan event, it would simply happen.
Sure, you've outlined a few 'its', all of which are low probability. We've adapted to the last 'it' (GFC).
Moving from property to Gold is adapting. Sticking with property through thick and thin or following strategies that worked during times of easy credit is not adapting.
They are strategies with different timeframes - property is 20+ yrs, gold is usually a matter of months. If you believe the Oz govt will continue with it's 2-3% inflation band policy & popln expansion, wages must follow, and so will house prices... as will credit availability. And IP investing worked well before easy credit came along... through thick & thin actually.
Congrats on adapting. I hope your strategy is successful for you. In one of your posts above you put a 10-20 yrs timeframe on the 2nd leg down of the GFC. What exit plan do you have if you expected scenario doesn't eventuate within that timeframe ? Have you considered investing in something less risky & more profitable until your anticipated scenario looks more likely ?
Do you think the US has learned from that event ?
Do you think things have changed since that event ?
No. No.
We differ, for many of the reasons I mentioned above.
If you do, what legislation has been put in place to reduce the ridiculous credit policies that caused this mess?
You appear to be focusing on a single (& v. negative) aspect of a much bigger (& more balanced) picture.
