I heard that Perth went up 7% in 2009!! 
Wander what 2010 will bring?
Wander what 2010 will bring?
Get ready for the mother of all property booms!
- Thread starter Propertunity
- Start date
One of our secret spots went up 16% and 23% respectively for the last two years.
Hehe Bob I know how you feel
Though I try to avoid the weekend OFI's and inspect during the week instead, naturally there are Saturdays where I have no choice or I'm showing clients around. Weekdays are calmer, though!So much for predictions for a stagnant market this year. Let me share with you some recent happenings in the suburbs I work in at the moment...
Last week attended a first OFI for probably the cheapest house in this particular suburb. There would have easily been 200 people inspecting during the half hour, if not more. Lined up down the street. Absolutely manic- and the place was a dump
I even took pics for my client to see the madness....Recently went to what I would term an "average" house in this suburb- even mid last year you would have been able to negotiate on this house after it had been on the market for 2-3 weeks. Not anymore. First inspection (along with at least 30 others) it sold an hour later to a buyer very close to the inflated asking price. The vendor must be ecstatic- I would be if I were him
Inspected a little villa that hadn't had it's first OFI (was two days later) and was told by the agent that there was already interest from two buyers who would purchase sight unseen.... OFI cancelled as one of them (cash buyer) decided to use their relative (POA) the following day to purchase with a 66sW
Admittedly, they'd seen others in the complex and had missed out so the strata searches etc had already been done, but still...!!Another sign that it's a sellers market is the lack of communication by selling agents. Sure, most of them still return calls (especially those I've dealt with before) but why would they bother when there's literally fresh buyers lining up every weekend? Expect lots more advertised prices such as Offers Over, EOI, Express Sale, Buying Range $700-800K etc as vendors cash in on the rising market- it always happens in a high demand/low supply environment.
For anything quality (for most buyers this constitutes nothing to do, quiet position, within their budget) around the suburb's median (and 20-30% above) it's my experience that it's a rising market here in Sydney. I may be wrong, what with IR increases on the way, and more doom and gloom forecast by some experts, but it's certainly not remaining stagnant from where I'm buying!
Rents are also holding up, and in the areas that I work in, demand is still high- I'm surprised as I thought the FHB's from 09 would increase the supply but time will tell if this has as large an impact as first thought.
I know that many members on here thought that 2010 would be a quieter year, due to factors such as the FHOG Boost disappearing (amongst others) but don't forget that all those who were fence sitting last year are now out in those fields buying. It will be an interesting year indeed for the Sydney property market.
I am spending at least 5 hours per day on the computer just trying to locate a suitable property, its been hard work. Most of the time they have already been sold, but still on the net
Have teamed up with a RE agent who has been brilliant
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....... Most of the time they have already been sold, but still on the net
That's the other thing that happens in a booming market. The selling agents get too busy to fix up their internet listings. It is just not a priority for them - and the poor dears look frazzled at the Opens - just taking names and numbers.
If you take the cynical view - yes I'd agree.
But I've seen the exhausted looks on their faces and the "I don't care if you buy or not, someone else will" attitude they portray........ and that is pretty much how it turns out
At the moment, it is whoever has the listings wins for them.(I guess it always has been
)Michael beating the drum is nothing new.
He's always trying to sign up people for that special once in a lifetime deal.
but using words such as the mother of all booms IMO lowers his credibility.
It's not that prices are low and are about to double overnight.
Prices are already high and buyers will soon realise that they've lost this train and they'll have to buy elsewhere or will have to wait and catch the next train in a few years time.
If interest rates stay low we could see moderate price increases this year and next year and then have a pause as rents and wages will play catching up.
Last week attended a first OFI for probably the cheapest house in this particular suburb. There would have easily been 200 people inspecting during the half hour, if not more. Lined up down the street. Absolutely manic- and the place was a dump
Maybe it was the only property those people could afford.
Regarding the high participation in OFI's, have you established what type of buyers these people are?
It could be that mum and dad investors have now come out of the woodwork.
BV why so negative??
MY has good reason to be positive.
These are the facts and some are still so oblivious to how big the 2009 real estate market really was.
Latest figures...
The five suburbs that experienced the highest house price growth in 2009.
Melbourne: East Melbourne 58.9%
Sydney: Sylvania Waters 53.8%
Perth: Churchlands 43.8%
Darwin: Fannie Bay 39.4%
Sydney: Taren Points 38.4%
These numbers are huge, anybody who is smart enough to understand the fundamentals that underpin property investing would have made a lot of money last year as an investor.
The latest figures just released show Melbourne's growth was at a whopping 18.5% and Sydney at a healthy 12.3%.
Keen got it wrong?
For a start, he neglected the supply side of the market and the growing shortage of dwellings putting an upward pressure on prices.
Add to that 40 year lows in terms of interest rates and a steady flow of migration plus a few other factors ...and what we saw was not a disastrous real estate market but one that actually outperformed all other asset classes significantly.
Now is the time to make some serious money.
Cheers, MTR
Cheers, MTR
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Are we there yet?
Keep on it MY, sooner or later you can shout from the roof tops "I told ya so! I was right!" and charge a few more Ks for ya appearances.
It's the "lucky fool" theory, works a treat.
"November 5th 2007
Take the city of Sydney - the Mecca of property investing.
In 1890, the average Sydney home price was $1,446 (£723). If property really does double every seven years then, in 2009, the average Sydney home will be worth $189,530,112.00. (There must be one helluva boom coming in the next 14 months).
In 1890, the average Sydney home price was $1,446 (£723). If property really does double every seven years then, in 2009, the average Sydney home will be worth $189,530,112.00. (There must be one helluva boom coming in the next 14 months)"
http://www.jenman.com.au/news_alert.php?id=90
Keep on it MY, sooner or later you can shout from the roof tops "I told ya so! I was right!" and charge a few more Ks for ya appearances.
It's the "lucky fool" theory, works a treat.
"November 5th 2007
Take the city of Sydney - the Mecca of property investing.
In 1890, the average Sydney home price was $1,446 (£723). If property really does double every seven years then, in 2009, the average Sydney home will be worth $189,530,112.00. (There must be one helluva boom coming in the next 14 months).
In 1890, the average Sydney home price was $1,446 (£723). If property really does double every seven years then, in 2009, the average Sydney home will be worth $189,530,112.00. (There must be one helluva boom coming in the next 14 months)"
http://www.jenman.com.au/news_alert.php?id=90
The only reason there was a property price increase in 2009 was the GFC and the massive stimulus that followed.
Lowest rates in 50 years, HUGE amount of money poured into the economy (and still is), First home owners grant and boost. etc
If the market was left to its own devices we would probably have seen a 10% fall post GFC.
Anyway, i'm over people saying they are geniuses by predicting the rise in prices where no one could have seen the effects of over stimulus coming.
And love your spruicking prop, i think you're a dyed in the wool RE agent. LOL
PS: If anyone in the self serving RE industry would be considered king of self promotion and sensationalising outcomes post event for their own benefit, it would have to be MY.
He's ok if youre a rank beginner (hmmmm...maybe not), but i think experienced investors take his stuff with a grain of salt (large one at that) unless his stuff is used for spruiking purposes of course.
Lowest rates in 50 years, HUGE amount of money poured into the economy (and still is), First home owners grant and boost. etc
If the market was left to its own devices we would probably have seen a 10% fall post GFC.
Anyway, i'm over people saying they are geniuses by predicting the rise in prices where no one could have seen the effects of over stimulus coming.
And love your spruicking prop, i think you're a dyed in the wool RE agent. LOL
PS: If anyone in the self serving RE industry would be considered king of self promotion and sensationalising outcomes post event for their own benefit, it would have to be MY.
He's ok if youre a rank beginner (hmmmm...maybe not), but i think experienced investors take his stuff with a grain of salt (large one at that) unless his stuff is used for spruiking purposes of course.
I agree, prices per individual property have certainly not doubled.
If these numbers are not wrong then the high percentages will probably be due to the sale of particular type of properties .
The median price often shows the wrong picture
MTR
I'm not negative, I just don't like people thinking that we are idiots...
I can understand the media using words like that but he should know better.
His words can get mum and dad investors into deep water for no good reason.
The market today has a lot of risks and the returns are very low so I'd question anyone buying an IP which is returning 3 and 4% in the hope that the already high prices will double in the next couple of years.
Edit:
I don't have a problem with people buying a property to keep for the long term.
They'll be feeding it for a long time but that's ok, it's their money.
cheers
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The East Melbourne figure, from memory, is also tagged as Not Statistically Reliable.
just a few comments...
In 88 when we bought our first PPOR rates started rising and our property doubled in less than 3 years. In my experience rising rates have heralded rising prices.
Willair asked about DSR in late 80s, I am not sure what the ratio was BUT you have to remember that most lenders (including several of the big 4) only used the man's wage. The woman's didn't count as it was assumed she would get pregnant and stop work. This happened to us and I was working for the bank that said it to me! ( they also told me I didn't earn enough)
Today, if there are 2 wage earners they have to be included and this can make a difference. most statistics seem to compare prices to av wage when they say property is unaffordable, but what is the price compared to average household income? or compared to twice the average wage? That is something I would be interested in.
In my little demographic we are seeing increases in rents so a lot of these properties are no returning more than 5% so I am expecting an increase in price over the next year. If it doubles I would be elated but 10% would do me lol
In 88 when we bought our first PPOR rates started rising and our property doubled in less than 3 years. In my experience rising rates have heralded rising prices.
Willair asked about DSR in late 80s, I am not sure what the ratio was BUT you have to remember that most lenders (including several of the big 4) only used the man's wage. The woman's didn't count as it was assumed she would get pregnant and stop work. This happened to us and I was working for the bank that said it to me! ( they also told me I didn't earn enough
)Today, if there are 2 wage earners they have to be included and this can make a difference. most statistics seem to compare prices to av wage when they say property is unaffordable, but what is the price compared to average household income? or compared to twice the average wage? That is something I would be interested in.
In my little demographic we are seeing increases in rents so a lot of these properties are no returning more than 5% so I am expecting an increase in price over the next year. If it doubles I would be elated but 10% would do me
lolThese type of figures can be manipulated by BOTH sides of the argument. For example, my grandfather bought his house in east Brisbane around 1930 for 2000 pounds or $4k IF it doubled every 10 years it would be $1 024 000 now. which for a huge Qlder on well over a quarter acre is probably spot on. I think the 7 year thing is bollocks but I have seen a fair bit of 10 year compounding that fits the bill.
But I get your point.
