Really? I'd be interested in hearing your take on the Eliz Nth/Enfield/Clearview markets in SA.
Have we hit the peak of the market
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Really? I'd be interested in hearing your take on the Eliz Nth/Enfield/Clearview markets in SA.
re
In terms of demand side: this morning on ABC radio, it claimed that the immigration intake will halve to it's peak of 300000. The government have tighted the skills migration, and as a result, drying up of overseas students.
I have a university collegue, his wife just got laid off by a private migration firm. Less immigration = less demand for rental, which may lead to lowering of pressure on house prices. This will not become fully evident until start of the tertiary year in 2011.
Warrenkh.2010
In terms of demand side: this morning on ABC radio, it claimed that the immigration intake will halve to it's peak of 300000. The government have tighted the skills migration, and as a result, drying up of overseas students.
I have a university collegue, his wife just got laid off by a private migration firm. Less immigration = less demand for rental, which may lead to lowering of pressure on house prices. This will not become fully evident until start of the tertiary year in 2011.
Warrenkh.2010
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melbourne = reassessmenet / correction. grew too fast, too quickly.
big correction? no, not in my opinion. maybe 5% or just a steadying of values for a while.
big correction? no, not in my opinion. maybe 5% or just a steadying of values for a while.
FROM it's peak of or TO a peak of?
half of 300,000 is 150,000, which is 35,000 more than initial 2009 estimates of 114,000.
300,000 down from 600,000 is still a bucketload of people.
but it's not a doubliong in 7 years and apparently there's a problem with this.
how exactly, i don't know......but your yield sounds amazing!
It does if you've valued those "basic fundamentals" incorrectly and have less than a 20% equity buffer. You may not have a say in whether you hold for the long term.
I'm not saying our market is the same, but I know a guy in California who thought he bought on fundamentals, he had his $280K PPOR paid off and used the equity as downpayment for 30% of an IP $400K.
4 years later and his loan is the same value as his total property portfolio.
He admitted that he wished he had learned how to value property rather than relying on the catchphrases "good property can only go up" "people have to live somewhere", "there aren't enough houses being built" etc etc
Actually, the last one is interesting because there was plenty of research to show there was an undersupply of houses in California. So what is one to do when you can't even rely on reports proving there is an undersupply?
Well, it pays to look at and understand the importance of yield in determining values.
sorry, it should be 'from'. that means down to 150,000.
then that's 36,000 more than previous estimates.
36,000 ÷ 114,000 = 31.6% more than previously budgeted for.
yeah....some decline.
RBA says Australia does not have a speculative housing bubble
From: http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estat...nd-borrowers-to-be-prudent-20100518-vbft.html
Ms Ellis goes on to say that supply is still sluggish and this will lead to higher prices and for higher rents.
All good news to investors - thank you Ms Ellis
From: http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estat...nd-borrowers-to-be-prudent-20100518-vbft.html
Ms Ellis goes on to say that supply is still sluggish and this will lead to higher prices and for higher rents.
All good news to investors - thank you Ms Ellis
I like the analogy with the stairs and the yoyo.
Regarding the paragraph in bold, I agree.
With all these recent rate rises and the slowing down of the FHOG, the FHB's (who of which most don't save), there will be fewer of them buying - unless the lenders start giving out 95-100% lends again.
The larger companies who build the Edward Scissorhand estates will prop them up with incentives like low deposits and the like, but I reckon generally this end of the market will slow down.
It will never go backwards, because the cheaper end has the biggest pool of buyers and investors.
From: http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estat...nd-borrowers-to-be-prudent-20100518-vbft.html
Ms Ellis goes on to say that supply is still sluggish and this will lead to higher prices and for higher rents.
All good news to investors - thank you Ms Ellis
It really shites me when I hear the word "speculative" mentioned in property sales/trends.
The overwhelming majority of buyers are PPoR buyers - buying a place to LIVE in.
There is no speculation in that.
Speculation is the guy who buys and tries to on-sell it before settlement, or flips it within 12 months, or does a 4 unit development to sell off.
What percentage of any market would constitute this type of transaction?
1.7 million ip owners in australia
Interesting, when the Melb market corrected in 2008 it dropped back about 10%, I think the inner city stuff was hit the hardest. Hope it is only 5%, I could live with that one.
Cheers, MTR
Which is what % of the total resi property market?
For a different view,
If a PPOR buyer can't afford to buy,
Has less than 20% deposit,
Could save a bigger deposit by waiting longer,
Is paying more than 30% of income in mortgage repayments
Bought due to fear of missing out.
They are speculating that house prices will keep going up which is why they are buying now, hence they are speculators! They may not realise it thats all.
This isn't every PPOR buyer, but it adds to the number of ip speculators.
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