hmmm dubai
- Thread starter lizzie
- Start date
Good question.
Australia in the firing line - possible.
Will it impact the RBA rate decision? Most likely.
Personal opinion only, I'd see this as a small impact on Aus economy and small world wide, so if there is a shares slump it will be profit taking rather than another collapse.
Of more concern will be the US retail trading figures for xmas. If they're in the doldrums that will be a nervous time to be in shares.
my 2 cents
Australia in the firing line - possible.
Will it impact the RBA rate decision? Most likely.
Personal opinion only, I'd see this as a small impact on Aus economy and small world wide, so if there is a shares slump it will be profit taking rather than another collapse.
Of more concern will be the US retail trading figures for xmas. If they're in the doldrums that will be a nervous time to be in shares.
my 2 cents
dubai - where saudi's go to party when they're young and die when they're old.
it's like the florida of the middle east.
it's like the florida of the middle east.
Being short the markets for a week, make me happy and a little more piston and a little less broke 
But the big question is who the 800bil is owed to?
And my guess is arab branches of western banks, or arab banks got their funds from western bank or central banks.
Given the amount very few of the world largest banks and central will not have exposure.
So it seems it another credit crunch like the US one.
The futures markets have already reacted taking a dive as will stock markets on monday.
But the big question is who the 800bil is owed to?
And my guess is arab branches of western banks, or arab banks got their funds from western bank or central banks.
Given the amount very few of the world largest banks and central will not have exposure.
So it seems it another credit crunch like the US one.
The futures markets have already reacted taking a dive as will stock markets on monday.
Interesting how a news about sovereign debt in Dubai greatly effect Australia, the AU$ was the worse performer currency in the last 24 hour (down from 0.93 US$ to 90 cent), this is despite no AUS eceonomy news was released (NZ had a worse then expected trade deficit and still did better then AUS).
The run away from the AU$ had a greater impact on the AUS share market that is performming worse then any other major economy
Being short the markets for a week, make me happy and a little more piston and a little less broke
But the big question is who the 800bil is owed to?
And my guess is arab branches of western banks, or arab banks got their funds from western bank or central banks.
Given the amount very few of the world largest banks and central will not have exposure.
So it seems it another credit crunch like the US one.
The futures markets have already reacted taking a dive as will stock markets on monday.
I have read about 80 bil$, don't know where the 800 bil$ come from. Markets beleive about 40 bil$ lended to Dubai come from europe (as usual europe has got money everywhere), the Dubai worlds assets was in the 100 bil$ worth at end of 2008 but property prices there slumped 50% and they got underwater, of curse this is bad for banks, this shouldn't effect AUS banks that "are very sound", they'll probably just dropping on the ASX in sympathy or may be because the dubai chrisis put in danger AUS home values (AUS banks assets)...
It is true, even if the currency seen as safest is the JPY, news like these mean deflation and in deflation there is not a money printing problem like the risk with the US$ at FED zero interest rate policy. In a world deflation environmnet the US$ will survive and your mony in US$ would be safe from devaluation
Well I bought USD from 92 upwards last time and sold at 73-65.
I done the same again buying over 92. Going against all the Schiffs and other self annointed gurus preaching to buy AUDs.
I reckon the USD is worth much more than the AUD.
For Dubai to be a bigger credit risk than iceland says something. Dubai is meant to be the new world eldorado.
All that this shows is how tenous most things are. This incident makes a mockery of the idea that anyone of us (economists, traders, the barefoot investor, David Hasselhoff) can predict what will happen to the economy, house prices etc going forward. Too many variables!
Save, invest, save, invest, save, invest....watch your debt.
All that this shows is how tenous most things are. This incident makes a mockery of the idea that anyone of us (economists, traders, the barefoot investor, David Hasselhoff) can predict what will happen to the economy, house prices etc going forward. Too many variables!
Save, invest, save, invest, save, invest....watch your debt.
I do not think so. The world has changed significantly. The American people have enjoyed the world's subsidy for too long for the world currency. It is the time to change. When the new world currency comes to paly, 1$AU would be worth 2$US. The US is not the US in 10 years ago. The US is now the dominant figure anymore.
Very true and the 'experts' are predicting a leg up for the USD, which of course sends ours down. I hope it happens sooner than later because a strong AUD for too long has too many negatives for us.
if you're American
This is an incredibly wise comment.
The sooner people realise this the more investors will realise that intelligent investing involves investing on fundamental values rather than speculative (educated?) guesses of the future.
It is easy to say but it is very hard to know what is fundamental value. I spend most of my days reading fundamental of the economy and markets and it is far easier to be a speculator and just follow the trend.
A good example is that very few spotted gold prices extremely undervalued during the 90's (in every country in the world with every currency)
its all about the $76 oil, it was so high before and "econamist " predictions of $180 a barrell has not come true as yet,
So as the arabs build on the back of the oil sales and the fixed contracts of paying $140 barrel for the next 12 months start to expire, their is such a slow down that many building projects are on hold , the ex pats have left and gone home many fleeing the country with massive" jailable" debts as well
this is why the property is down 47%.
So as the arabs build on the back of the oil sales and the fixed contracts of paying $140 barrel for the next 12 months start to expire, their is such a slow down that many building projects are on hold , the ex pats have left and gone home many fleeing the country with massive" jailable" debts as well
this is why the property is down 47%.
I'd agree with boz.... it's not what you think that matters, it's what other people (the ones with the big $$$) think. The market (ie other people) can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.
I'd argueaussierogue said:
. What you appear to be saying is that unless someone is 100% correct about everything they are worthless. I'd say that no-one can be perfect, but some are more likely to assess circumstances correctly, or with a higher probability of being correct. It's the balance of probabilities that is important.The GFC was an unlikely event, there are 1000's of similarly unlikely events that can happen before next week - the internet is chock full of them.
There's lots of posts here at SS, that say something along the lines of Mr X was wrong about the GFC, why listen to him now ? IMO, that's not a smart thing to say.
Keith
With due respect - you are using the word 'worthless' not me which says something about the immotive place where you are coming from imo.
I also never said anaything about being perfect - you again!
You also conveniantly left out my last few lines - save, invest, save invest....
My point was about being pragmatic about investment decisions and wealth creation. I use the word Save, 'invest', save 'invest' ........so my point is that you still need to make educated guesses in line with your goals but at the end of the day a 'guess' is all it can really be!
The moment you think you are a guru and you become dogmatic about a certain market direction - then you are a folling yourself. You can be less than 100 percent certain, less than dogmatic and still make money!
Cheers
Aussie
With due respect - you are using the word 'worthless' not me which says something about the immotive place where you are coming from imo.
I also never said anaything about being perfect - you again!
You also conveniantly left out my last few lines - save, invest, save invest....
My point was about being pragmatic about investment decisions and wealth creation. I use the word Save, 'invest', save 'invest' ........so my point is that you still need to make educated guesses in line with your goals but at the end of the day a 'guess' is all it can really be!
The moment you think you are a guru and you become dogmatic about a certain market direction - then you are a folling yourself. You can be less than 100 percent certain, less than dogmatic and still make money!
Cheers
Aussie
