tvadera;927251...Is Melbourne completely a write off for the next 2-3 years....[/QUOTE said:
It can take many years to bring raw paddocks to the market, and rezoning tracts of land does not mean that they will go on to the market for development any time soon
Let us say that the rezoning of these areas goes ahead, and that Fred and Mary, the Farmers, being just down the road from a new subdivision in a growth corridor, decide to put the farm on the market
So what's the best guess? 5 Years before the thistles are replaced by curbs, channels, bitumen roads and display homes? 10 years before the place has more than 35% occupancy?
I don't think we are going to be overwhelmed by a surplus of supply any time soon. Victoria's population is growing by 1,000 new people every week
realestate.com.au has 97,046 properties listed as 'for sale' in Victoria today. How many were advertised 12 months ago or 2 years ago, I don't know. I can't isolate the results to 'Melbourne' because Melbourne Metropolitan Area now stretches from Frankston to Pakenham to Epping, to Whittlesea, to Werribee and includes areas such as Point Cook. The search engine doesn't recognise 'Melbourne' as anything except postcode 3000. And despite being ‘for sale’, these properties are all actually owned by somebody today. It may be a bit of a nuisance if they aren’t sold soon, but they are not perishable like fruit and if they aren’t sold soon they will still eventually be sold.
I think that by the time 10 years comes around we will have rezoned and released even more land - our fertile farm lands and vegetable gardens are being swallowed up by garden gnomes, the relentless march of paved alfresco areas with fire pits and water features.
But even if the Inner Ring suburbs suddenly dropped 20% in price, there would not be a stampede to move in. All roads do not now lead to only Rome. Melbourne now has many Romes and many communities, sufficient unto themselves. I have lived here all my life, and watch with wonder as Melbourne continues to invent itself and how it grows and changes over time
It is a World Class city to be proud of, and there are many areas outside of our own neighbourhoods which other people are proud to call home
Is the bottom going to drop out of our market? Who knows? No market can continually grow in value and the housing market is no different. However, I would doubt that a property bought in 'Melbourne' today, is worth the same or less dollars in ten years time. I would still hazard the guess that property values today are, within a modest margin, at their historical lowest of at any time between now and 2032.
From my perspective, today's market is more about 'days to sell' than it is about the actual dollars a property is sold for.
Cheers
Kristine
