Housing market misery to continue?

[daniellee]

My wife and I are looking at a buy-reno-sell approach to increase our cash holdings and to pay down debt. The question then, seeing that the market generally is trending sideways or weaken appreciation, is the good approach now to buy a property below market price, do a quick reno and then sell back at market price?

We are looking at this approach to make some cash and pay down our debts. We are based in SE Melbourne and am looking at a middle suburb like Noble Park.

Regards,

Daniel Lee

 

[zed_kid]

My wife and I are looking at a buy-reno-sell approach to increase our cash holdings and to pay down debt. The question then, seeing that the market generally is trending sideways or weaken appreciation, is the good approach now to buy a property below market price, do a quick reno and then sell back at market price?

We are looking at this approach to make some cash and pay down our debts. We are based in SE Melbourne and am looking at a middle suburb like Noble Park.

Regards,

Daniel Lee

In a downward market buy-reno-sell is tough and can end you if you are just starting out in RE investing... whats your LVR like at the moment? Serviceability ok? Have a cash buffer?

IMO best strategy now is to buy bellow market -> value add -> rent out for higher yield and wait for the upswing... just my opinion.

 

[Deltaberry]

Lol, someone better tell the banks then cause I'm sure they'd like to know what's going to happen with all the bad debts!
Seriously man, c'mon..

Oh yea ... they must've forgotten to tell the banks in US, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece. Of course, Australians are way smarter than these countries so it won't happen here.

After all, Australia invented Microsoft and saved the world in WWII, wiped out the Aztecs, discovered Australia and invaded Persia. Woops that's US, Spain, Portugal and Greece. My bad. I always get mixed up. Australia digs dirt and sells to China. Great

 

[Deltaberry]

I LOL'd good trolling sir

I think my comment had much more truth than what you just contributed. And I'm sure the Americans labelled people on internet forums who said what I did as trolls, in 2007. Today they call them gods.

 

[MrCrumbpacker]

Oh yea ... they must've forgotten to tell the banks in US, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece. Of course, Australians are way smarter than these countries so it won't happen here.

After all, Australia invented Microsoft and saved the world in WWII, wiped out the Aztecs, discovered Australia and invaded Persia. Woops that's US, Spain, Portugal and Greece. My bad. I always get mixed up. Australia digs dirt and sells to China. Great

Now, now!,..........sometimes it helps to sugar coat an inconvenient truth.

 

[bene313]

Oh yea ... they must've forgotten to tell the banks in US, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Greece.

Those countries you listed, their economies are screwed. Ireland for example has unemployment of around 15% and they produce nothing to add to GDP growth.

If our economy absolutely tanks it like those countries listed above, not only will our property suffer, but also small/med/large business, listed equities, employment and wages, etc, etc.

But to say there will be a property crash in Australia while our economy is strong? I highly doubt it.

 

[Tehanu]

Guys I wouldn't bother replying to Deltaberry.

Deltaberry is trolling, just not in the way you think. He/she has been active in threads ridiculing people with negative opinions about the Australian property market and this is their attempt to try to get a rise out of them and probably try to push some people with bearish sentiments into selling.

Personally I think what he/she is doing is highly immoral. If I while believing that the house market is going to crash start giving out advice to buy now and take on massive leverage in the hopes that bulls will take what I believe is bad advice and crash and burn, that would be immoral. Even if the market does go up so they actually do win out my intention was to hurt them and that they didn’t would be due to luck.

Deltaberry while truly believing that the market is going to go up is going around deliberately giving what he/she believes to be bad advice in the hopes of hurting people. I would consider that immoral behaviour even if the market does drop and their trolling does accidentally save some people because their intentions were bad.

I mean it is one thing to be bullish or bearish, as long as it is your sincere opinion, but to try to hurt people with that you personally consider to be bad advice (even if it does turn out to be good advice in the end) is pretty nasty behaviour.

Not that I necessarily disagree with the substance of the things they are saying. However it does annoy me to see someone try to do something like this because I know they are not being sincere. I don't need/want support from someone who is spreading what they believe to be lies in the hopes of hurting people.

I'm sure Deltaberry will try to protest that they are sincere but no-one goes from one extreme to another that quickly. If he/she is sincere, ask if they have started to sell their own properties (I believe he/she is very heavily negatively geared) yet.

 

[The Fence]

Kudos Tehanu....

 

[tom32]

Those countries you listed, their economies are screwed. Ireland for example has unemployment of around 15% and they produce nothing to add to GDP growth.

If our economy absolutely tanks it like those countries listed above, not only will our property suffer, but also small/med/large business, listed equities, employment and wages, etc, etc.

But to say there will be a property crash in Australia while our economy is strong? I highly doubt it.

There are many people who believe it is the housing cycle which pushes the economic cycle though not vice versa. I imagine this is why governments not just in Australia fund stimulous in housing. It does not appear as productive as say funding new dams, bridges, ports and the like but it has a profound effect on the broader economy.

I reckon it is probably like all things a combination of the two, i.e. concurrent effects so as you say with a powering economy maybe we are collectively OK. So if your economy is absolutely powering than housing will hold up with the caveat though that an initially small input may have an amplified effect through feedback.

I guess the upshot is it may not take 10% UE to cause Australia's collective housing asset value to fall a bit but if housing starts to cool we may end up with 10% UE and further falls.

 

[Tehanu]

Actually. Maybe I should apologise to Deltaberry. Maybe they are not deliberately trying to mislead people but are just trying to hurt bears and the misleading (according to their true opinion) thing is just unintentional collateral damage. In that case, my apologies to Deltaberry. If you want to mock bears, feel free. Taking bears' arguments to extremes is a valid argument to make if you feel that their views are ridiculous.

However I would advise you to try to make it very very clear mockery. Actually you are are reaching that point in some of your comments. But I would advise you to make it really really ridiculous.

Then you can have the pleasure of mocking bears and their arguments without doing what you consider to be misleading people.

Right now your parodying isn't really parodying. I think the problem is being an uber-bull you may not realize that though some of your comments are too extreme even for bears, many are not. It may seem to extreme to *you* though. I would up the extreme level though to really make it obviously a parody.

Also don't try to engage in discussions with people over housing market economics who actually *share* your views if you are not sincere. You are just wasting their time. However if you want to waste the time of bears in housing market threads by parodying their statements feel free. If they don't realise that you are trying to parody them then that's their own fault.

Yes, even though I am a housing bear it does annoy me to see someone waste the time of bulls with bearish arguments I know they don't believe in. I was able to ignore your other attempts to get a rise out of people like me but I had to comment when I saw you start doing this.

 

[HomeBuyerStrike]

Those countries you listed, their economies are screwed. Ireland for example has unemployment of around 15% and they produce nothing to add to GDP growth.

Have you seen Ireland's export figures? Australia would be lucky to have their trade surplus (per capita). Ireland's outlook was rosy as long as upwards only house prices were the status quo.

 

[Deltaberry]

Guys I wouldn't bother replying to Deltaberry.

Deltaberry is trolling, just not in the way you think. He/she has been active in threads ridiculing people with negative opinions about the Australian property market and this is their attempt to try to get a rise out of them and probably try to push some people with bearish sentiments into selling.

Personally I think what he/she is doing is highly immoral. If I while believing that the house market is going to crash start giving out advice to buy now and take on massive leverage in the hopes that bulls will take what I believe is bad advice and crash and burn, that would be immoral. Even if the market does go up so they actually do win out my intention was to hurt them and that they didn’t would be due to luck.

Deltaberry while truly believing that the market is going to go up is going around deliberately giving what he/she believes to be bad advice in the hopes of hurting people. I would consider that immoral behaviour even if the market does drop and their trolling does accidentally save some people because their intentions were bad.

I mean it is one thing to be bullish or bearish, as long as it is your sincere opinion, but to try to hurt people with that you personally consider to be bad advice (even if it does turn out to be good advice in the end) is pretty nasty behaviour.

Not that I necessarily disagree with the substance of the things they are saying. However it does annoy me to see someone try to do something like this because I know they are not being sincere. I don't need/want support from someone who is spreading what they believe to be lies in the hopes of hurting people.

I'm sure Deltaberry will try to protest that they are sincere but no-one goes from one extreme to another that quickly. If he/she is sincere, ask if they have started to sell their own properties (I believe he/she is very heavily negatively geared) yet.

You take things too personally. I have had a record for calling a bear market, long before you joined this forum and participated like a maniac racking up your post count. Perhaps if you check my previous posts you'd see that. Obviously you're just using your short time here to form a judgment about me. But let me clarify my position, since I didn't notice you've been monitoring my posts so closely.

I am a semi-bear, but have recently turned even more bearish due to my wins on the equity markets. I think this is the time for equity markets to shine and properties will at best fall a bit and most likely fall a lot and at worst crash like crazy. Whenever I chatted to you about your most extreme views, I simply was trying to point out subtle differences in markets. But I don't think I ever said the market was going to go up, as you alluded to. For you to defame me like that and put words in my mouth which I didn't say is highly inappropriate. If you can find one post where I said the market will go up recently, I'll admit your godlike status. But otherwise as they say, do your research before making false accusations again.

 

[Deltaberry]

Right now your parodying isn't really parodying. I think the problem is being an uber-bull you may not realize that though some of your comments are too extreme even for bears, many are not. It may seem to extreme to *you* though. I would up the extreme level though to really make it obviously a parody.

Also don't try to engage in discussions with people over housing market economics who actually *share* your views if you are not sincere. You are just wasting their time. However if you want to waste the time of bears in housing market threads by parodying their statements feel free. If they don't realise that you are trying to parody them then that's their own fault.

You come into this thread with a biased judgment that I'm a bull, just because I didn't agree with all your comments. There is no such thing as being a ridiculous bear, as my views are well-documented and supported by past experiences overseas. Please don't be childish posting these emotional responses... I actually agree with most of what you said. Go check my post history to see I have a history of thinking it's or at least it was time to sell out. Anyway another childish comment from you I'll probably just ignore it...

If you're going to write another adversarial, unconstructive post, then you should probably not bother. I'm here to talk about economics and debate, not personality and grudges from other threads.

PS: don't talk about me investors so unsophisticated like they are either bulls or bears. That sounds like Bush. Them or Us. We just improvise with the market. And no need to pre-empt that I'm going to respond. Pretty boring forum tactic. Let me preempt that you will probably respond and justify your position too... haha. If you were the better man you wouldn't bother with another aggressive post... I'll admit first that I'm not the better man so feel free to fire back.

 

[Belu]

Have you seen Ireland's export figures? Australia would be lucky to have their trade surplus (per capita). Ireland's outlook was rosy as long as upwards only house prices were the status quo.

Ireland's biggest export is U2 - not much cost, high income in taxes.

 

[Deltaberry]

Ireland's biggest export is U2 - not much cost, high income in taxes.

Our biggest exports are commodities. As they say, the faster the boom the faster the bust. Makes you wonder when Swan labels this as the 'boom of the century'...

 

[HomeBuyerStrike]

Ireland's biggest export is U2 - not much cost, high income in taxes.

U2 earn their profits in the Netherlands.

 

[Fifth]

After all, Australia invented Microsoft and saved the world in WWII, wiped out the Aztecs, discovered Australia and invaded Persia. Woops that's US, Spain, Portugal and Greece. My bad. I always get mixed up. Australia digs dirt and sells to China. Great

To be fair, Australia did give the world Mozart, Freud and der Fuhrer.

 

[Melbournian]

My wife and I are looking at a buy-reno-sell approach to increase our cash holdings and to pay down debt. The question then, seeing that the market generally is trending sideways or weaken appreciation, is the good approach now to buy a property below market price, do a quick reno and then sell back at market price?

We are looking at this approach to make some cash and pay down our debts. We are based in SE Melbourne and am looking at a middle suburb like Noble Park.

Regards,

Daniel Lee

That approach is kind of hard in this market. Secondly - u need some decentl taste and design skills. I personally have done this approach out of accident but have now stopped to focus on newer ideas.

 

[Deltaberry]

To be fair, Australia did give the world Mozart, Freud and der Fuhrer.

Oh yea Freudian beliefs are a strong point.

 

[Tehanu]

In that case Deltaberry I do apologize to you. I have to admit that sometimes I do have a quick temper. Even if you were doing what I thought you were I shouldn't said what I did. I guess that teaches me for posting without thinking!

I will have to say though that I would have apologized even if you were saying that the housing market was going to double over the next year. My beef was not with whether you disagreed with me or not but what I (mistakenly) thought you were doing to other posters.

I hope you are good enough to put this behind us.