Housing shortage and population growth

So with less migration intake and population growth of 1.6% (down from 2.1%) where can I find more information about housing shortage?

As fas as I know, there seems to be an increase in shared accomodation and I personally have rented out 2 rooms in my house, the housing shortage thing baffles me. Most if not all the info I get is from the news without sufficient data to back it.

All I hear from the news is "according to a property expert", but I just don't take their word for it.

Another way of putting it is "Housing shortage, is it a myth or a fact?"

Can anybody shed some light on this?

Cheers
 
So what you're saying is the Press is making outlandish headlines without any basis? That doesn't sound like the media that I know... I thought they reported on facts and credible evidence.

The myth or fact shortage depends on where you're looking, what time frame you’re looking at and a multitude of other factors.

For example a brand new subdivision is a myth if you’re looking at a shortage in the 1 – 5 year mark. But credible if you’re looking at a 30 – 50 year time frame.

If you’re looking at Australian facts, Perth may have a shortage, but Melbourne might be over supplied. This is not fact or fiction; it’s just an example for illustrative purposes.

Narrow down where you are looking and the time frame you are going to hold the investment for. Then look at the supply stats on the pocket, the suburb and then the state.

Some examples include: future increased density, current constructions in area, state migration, the amount of properties on market, the amount of properties on the market in the suburb, etc etc etc…
 
Don't think of it as a shortage or oversupply.

Think of it as how much house can each person afford at current prices.

While affordability is good people tend to spread out, as why wouldn't you.

If affordability is poor people cannot make ends meet clearly they live in a different way.

You can have the same number of houses and same number of people and yet in one economic environment you will need to build more (relatively affordable housing people get as much as they can) and in another economic environment you will have too many (relatively unnafordable housing so people cannot afford to get as much as they could before)

Price is only one factor in detirmining affordability. Prices can fall and yet houses can become yet more unnafordable depending on other conditions like employment, credit availability, interest rates etc etc.

Jack interest rates to 10% tommorrow and you would find we have too much house for our needs. Drop interest rates to 1% along with a government pledge to buy as much RMBS as the banks / NBL's want tommorrow and their would be a building boom like you have never seen.

Generally speaking economy weak >> less house per person v economy strong >> more house per person. Importantly interest rates do play an inverse role to this which is there reason for using them against investment or for investment. For us not to get carried away during booms investing like there is no tommorrow.
 
I agree 100% with Tom; don't just use housing supply to determine where you purchase. Use a whole range of factors, because they all play their part in determining the house price and the future growth.
 
I had a crack at a supply/demand model around 12 months ago:
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=655032&postcount=36

It has some flaws e.g. It doesn't account for temporary immigrants (e.g. students) that reside in a dwelling unit. The balance may differ between regions (e.g. overbuilt one area, underbuilt another)...

We did have a period (around 3-4 years) where new supply was not keeping up with new demand, however there was no spotlight shone on the overbuilding that occurred leading up to this period.

I think the property shortage is a myth (on the whole).
 
I suspect that most recent references to housing supply would be based on the last report from the National Housing Supply Council.
http://www.nhsc.org.au/default.html

The Council was established by the Australian Government in May 2008 to monitor housing demand, supply and affordability in Australia, and to highlight current and potential gaps between housing supply and demand from households. It is an independent group that operates at arms length from government and reports to the Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities.

The figures quoted in the press probably reflect their view on underlying demand rather than actual demand.

Projecting demand based on demographic changes

This chapter projects the underlying demand for housing (i.e. the need for housing based on the number of households in the population). Underlying demand differs from the demand actually expressed in the market (i.e. effective demand). The level of underlying demand is driven mostly by migration and other demographic factors - or the first of the seven factors identified at the beginning of this chapter.

By contrast, effective demand is the quantity of housing that owner-occupiers, investors and renters are able and willing to buy or rent in the housing market. It is affected by the full range of market forces - including the number of households, incomes, prices, the economic situation, the availability of finance, government policy settings and assistance, and the current supply of dwellings.

Personally I reckon that part of the increase in housing prices over recent years can be attributed to insufficient supply or to put it another way insufficient supply is already factored into current prices.
 
Personally I reckon that part of the increase in housing prices over recent years can be attributed to insufficient supply or to put it another way insufficient supply is already factored into current prices.

You make a valid point.
I think there are enough properties to buy but not in all areas.
Also, not all people can afford to buy them or they don't see the value of ownership so they choose to rent.

The increased rental demand has pushed rents up because there aren't enough rentals and some tenants find it very hard to secure a property.

This situation is forcing SOME of them to hurry up and buy their own property so there is continued buying demand from FHB's and this is the reason that entry level properties in many suburbs are flying out the door.

That's what I see in my back of the woods anyway
 
I can't speak for everywhere, but if you want to find a place to rent within 20km of Sydney CBD you'd better have a big angle up your sleeve.

A very good mate of mine - self-employed but a money-making machine of a guy - just moved with partner and kids from Bris to Syd. His partner's stress in the face of a field of overwhelming competition for housing horrors, with two very young children on tow, was simply heartbreaking.

I don't know for certain, but I duly suspect that it was my company-letterheaded 'professional reference' that quickly got his family a rental place to live in Haberfield (the agent did call to check that his family was also pristinely clean with housekeeping, which I could indeed favourably attest to).

I'm not trying to hoist my own pettard here saying this (indeed, his relocation is prospectively of significant business-related advantage to our company), but what I am saying is that you'd be seriously unhinged to take the risk of putting your family's wellbeing on today's rental market without substantial and verifiable respected back-up.

Hobo Jo's "Property shortage a myth (on the whole)" suggestion? I'll leave that for you to decide for youselves. I've got to go and find a large bucket, myself.
 
The thread was introduced with an 'on the whole' question, e.g. is the housing shortage a myth or fact?

I said as much in my reply that it will differ between areas:
"The balance may differ between regions (e.g. overbuilt one area, underbuilt another)"

I'm getting a little tired of inner Sydney suburbs being used in just about every example on here... not only has Belbo used them here to (try) prove there is a 'shortage', but this region comes up often in other threads such as rental increase threads. We get it, rentals are tight in inner Sydney. Newsflash, 90%+ of Australia's population doesn't live in inner Sydney suburbs.
 
I'm getting more than a little tired of - Naah na, na naah na, myself - but maybe that's just not 'on the whole' either?
 
I don't even know what you are insinuating with that post.

You seem to have some sort of personal agenda against me. Not sure what that's about, but maybe you could get over it?
 
Against you? No, lad. Just the flippant shallowness underpinning all of your arguments. I'm debating the the post (vis. the property shortage is a myth), not the poster. I'm sure you're well respected at school.
 
My posts aren't the ones filled with snide school yard taunts.

Regardless of whether my methodology in calculating a shortage or oversupply has flaws it's pretty amusing that you think a single heart string pulling example lends any credibility to your position in the 'debate'.
 
hobo-jo you fail to understand the undersupply issue. Its clear from reading your comments that you beleive there should be people living on the streets because by your logic if there is an undersupply then that means there should be no houses to house them.

However this is completely wrong way of thinking. The housing shortage issue is largely mathematical i.e. based on hisotrical trends of population growth and homes being built. In short population growth has gone up whereas new builds havent.

Now this doesnt mean people are living on the streets. Nor does it mean realestate.com.au should have no properties for sale because of the simplistic view that if there is a shortage that means anything available will be snapped up.

Housing shortage simply means people wanting a property cannot afford one and hence are changing their habbits.

This is clear to see as people are now;

* living longer at home with their parents.
* group accomodation (buying with friends etc)
* renting (just look at the vacancy rates anywhere in the country)
* living further and further away from work\city
* price growth.

To provide another example use food prices. World wide there is a growing shortage\strain on food supply. This doesnt mean our hospitals are slowly filling up with people starving to death but it does mean that our eating habbits are drasitcally changing especially lower socio economic areas.

At this point many people who are blind denyers of any housing shortage will say well thats life, thats market economics peoples expectations are too high.

Taking that position is just bad economics as we are painting ourselves into a corner. Were do we stop, a lot more people are waiting to move out at 30 before they can afford to buy (save deposit etc) its not too far a stretch to imagine we will soon be 40 before we move out. If we are happy with such changes in lifestyle then ummm I guess its ok but I feel most poeple wont be happy with such changes and would want the issue of "housing shortage" addressed.

Its like saying its fine if petrol prices doubled as people just have to learn to adjust and take the bus or if food prices sky rocket people just have to learn to eat macas for their read meats and deal with it..

A much better and more efficient approach would be to increase the stock of housing in this country, which will take pressure off prices and see them stabalise for years to come. This is basic economics of demand & supply and finding an efficient equilibrium price.

So by increasing (supply), prices will come down and demand being met will increase.

This will mean more people who want to buy a house can, i.e. a more efficient outcome for the economy as a whole.

It is NOT a conspiracy of the HIA, MBA or any other building group its simply common sense. So in answer to the main thrust of this thread, is there a a shortage of stock YES! but is it understood by most of the public or even somersoft forum members? No.

The thread was introduced with an 'on the whole' question, e.g. is the housing shortage a myth or fact?

I said as much in my reply that it will differ between areas:
"The balance may differ between regions (e.g. overbuilt one area, underbuilt another)"

I'm getting a little tired of inner Sydney suburbs being used in just about every example on here... not only has Belbo used them here to (try) prove there is a 'shortage', but this region comes up often in other threads such as rental increase threads. We get it, rentals are tight in inner Sydney. Newsflash, 90%+ of Australia's population doesn't live in inner Sydney suburbs.
 
tcocaro, I agree with your comment that population growth has increased while new builds haven't, that is clearly indicated in my earlier linked post/table that shows on a new housing for new population basis we have been running a deficit (at least for the last 4-5 years), however we have been running a large surplus for years/decades prior to this. Consider that we currently average around 2.5 people per household and the overbuilding (prior to 2006) seems obvious to me when viewing the chart below. I guess the question then arises whether this stronger population growth has simply been a short term anomaly or a permanent change in our growth rate. Recent immigration statistics indicate it may have been the former.

dwellingapprovalsvpopul.gif
 
Hi hobo-jo

How does the chart prove that there has been building surplus for years/decades prior to the last 4-5 years?

Cheers

Pete
 
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