Housing shortage and population growth

[VYBerlinaV8]

I wouldn't say oversupply is massive in all areas. I think we have well over built and well under built in different areas (under building is driving legitimate shortages in some Sydney areas).

Ultimately even if we are 400,000 houses over the mark (and it's likely the number is less than that, the table doesn't account for everything) that's only around 5% over the mark (400k/8m total).

I wouldn't say it's definite proof of oversupply, but I think it's a good measure to show that the "shortage" is a myth. A lot of commentators have referred to the gap (between pop growth and new housing) over the last 4 years when talking about the shortage without considering what came before it.

There was an oversupply in the US before their bubble collapsed, what kept prices up there?? The answer has been posted on this forums by Sunfish (and evand if I recall) several times in the last few weeks, it's not fundamental drivers that have pushed the markets to these heights, it's availability of credit and sentiment.

The oversupply/undersupply argument is an interesting one, because on a national level the numbers don't have a lot of relevance (at least not to me). I'm sure we can all name places where there are properties lying vacant, with noone to live in them. Conversely, we can all name markets where any new stock gets snapped up faster than you can blink.

The real question, I think, is what is the trend in population growth movement, and is there a genuine oversupply or undersupply in the key areas?

Given development has slowed down, but population is increasing, it's only a matter of time until demand in key areas grows again.

The those vacant houses in the middle of nowhere will still be vacant.

 

[Forester]

Its a well known fact reported for years that Australia has a housing shortage, hence the property price growth and low vacancy rates around the country. Arguing otherwise is like saying the earth is flat, or that humans have no impact on global warming ...

Thats not to say that in a particular place at a particular time in a particular price range there isn't sometimes an oversupply.

If you buy in a great location where people want to live in a place that has a strong, diverse economy thats experiencing good population growth (eg inner city melbourne) and you take a long term view ... history shows you will do pretty well.

 

[hobo-jo]

Its a well known fact reported for years that Australia has a housing shortage

GREAT! I welcome your contribution of hard numbers and data to support this fact. I assume that was coming in your next post??

 

[Deltaberry]

Its a well known fact reported for years that Australia has a housing shortage, hence the property price growth and low vacancy rates around the country. Arguing otherwise is like saying the earth is flat, or that humans have no impact on global warming ...

Thats not to say that in a particular place at a particular time in a particular price range there isn't sometimes an oversupply.

If you buy in a great location where people want to live in a place that has a strong, diverse economy thats experiencing good population growth (eg inner city melbourne) and you take a long term view ... history shows you will do pretty well.

Right................. Australia has a shortage of affordable housing.
But if the prices crashed then there'd be no shortage.

Try that one...

 

[Sunfish]

Arguing otherwise is like saying the earth is flat, or that humans have no impact on global warming ...

Luv it when alarmists call sceptics flat-earthers and tobacco/big oil apologists.

I have no connection with either industry and understand that the Earth orbits the sun, but I'm an avowed sceptic.

Care to put your case in a new thread so we can analyse it?

You're just out of school, right?

 

[tcocaro]

The case for a housing shortage is already well and trully out there in the public domain heavily backed by the weight of majority opinion much like.... "global warming" and "cancer causing cirgaretts".

You're retired and fixed in your ways, right?

Luv it when alarmists call sceptics flat-earthers and tobacco/big oil apologists.

I have no connection with either industry and understand that the Earth orbits the sun, but I'm an avowed sceptic.

Care to put your case in a new thread so we can analyse it?

You're just out of school, right?

 

[Telejazzer]

The case for a housing shortage is already well and trully out there in the public domain heavily backed by the weight of majority opinion much like.... "global warming" and "cancer causing cirgaretts".

You're retired and fixed in your ways, right?

Firstly, I respect your views as I too am interested in property development but in regards to Sunfish's comment, I could be wrong but I think it's more directed to the newbie's comment.

 

[Sunfish]

Thanks TJ.
Maybe Forester could read the thoughts of John Kenneth Galbraith who had quite a bit to say about "conventional wisdom". I think he discussed it in The Affluent Society.

He didn't think much of it.

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

The oversupply/undersupply argument is an interesting one, because on a national level the numbers don't have a lot of relevance (at least not to me). I'm sure we can all name places where there are properties lying vacant, with noone to live in them. Conversely, we can all name markets where any new stock gets snapped up faster than you can blink.

The real question, I think, is what is the trend in population growth movement, and is there a genuine oversupply or undersupply in the key areas?

Given development has slowed down, but population is increasing, it's only a matter of time until demand in key areas grows again.

The those vacant houses in the middle of nowhere will still be vacant.

For those focusing on property as their main wealth creation vehicle, and who wish to stick to one asset class, i strongly recommend putting some 'sticky notes' against VYBerlina's posts.

These are some very intelligent posts, relatively free from bias, and shows the picture as how it is.

Again great contribution to this forum.

 

[hobo-jo]

Interesting to note RPData's recent rental statistics show the number available is well up on the same time last year (+18%):

So while things might be tight in some specific areas, that is clearly not the case on a national basis.

Smallest increase in advertised rental stock was in WA.

Vacancy rates have also increased in most areas over this time last year.

 

[turk]

Interesting to note RPData's recent rental statistics show the number available is well up on the same time last year (+18%):

So while things might be tight in some specific areas, that is clearly not the case on a national basis.

Smallest increase in advertised rental stock was in WA.

Vacancy rates have also increased in most areas over this time last year.

hobo-jo

To claim that this statistic shows that rental housing has moved from being tight to not being tight on a national basis is being either niave or you being
disingenuous

 

[hobo-jo]

To claim that this statistic shows that rental housing has moved from being tight to not being tight on a national basis is being either niave or you being disingenuous

Rather than nitpicking the wording of my posts why not add some data to the thread that supports your own views? Or at the very least make a counter argument based on the data rather than name calling?

 

[turk]

Rather than nitpicking the wording of my posts why not add some data to the thread that supports your own views? Or at the very least make a counter argument based on the data rather than name calling?

My view is that the stats you posted do not support your claim, no further data is needed.

These stats do not show whether the rental market was tight or not, now or 12 months ago.


As you made the claim the onus is on you to prove from these stats how the rental market went from being tight to not tight as you claim.

 

[hobo-jo]

I didn't say that the "stats how the rental market went from being tight to not tight" and I'm not getting caught up in another lengthy interpretation argument.

Seems the trolls on this forum have a larger interest in derailing any thread or user that displays data or opinion they don't like rather than discussing it sensibly.

 

[turk]

I didn't say that the "stats how the rental market went from being tight to not tight" and I'm not getting caught up in another lengthy interpretation argument.

Seems the trolls on this forum have a larger interest in derailing any thread or user that displays data or opinion they don't like rather than discussing it sensibly.

hobo-jo, to quote you

"So while things might be tight in some specific areas, that is clearly not the case on a national basis"

Please show me how these stats show that "things might be tight in some specific areas, that is clearly not the case on a national basis"

These stats do not show whether the rental market is tight or not,
they only show that there are more properties for rent now than 12 months ago.

 

[hobo-jo]

I guess that depends on your definition of tight.

What data suggests to you that the market is tight (on a national level)?

 

[turk]

I guess that depends on your definition of tight.

What data suggests to you that the market is tight (on a national level)?

hobo-jo


Never claimed the market was tight or otherwise.

You have a history of posting data then making claims not supported by that data, this is another example.

I'm still waiting for you to show where this data shows,


"So while things might be tight in some specific areas, that is clearly not the case on a national basis

This data does not show the supply and demand side of the market.

You are putting your interpretation on a limited data set to suit your bearish outlook.

I think as per your tag you have bear and realist confused.

Currently on property I'm bearish and I believe a realist, you can be both,
they are not mutually exclusive.

 

[CHam]

I guess that depends on your definition of tight.

What data suggests to you that the market is tight (on a national level)?

I think that what Turk is saying is that you cannot reasonably conclude that the rental market is, or is not tight, by quoting one set of figures (such as an increase in rental properties being available) only. These figures need a comparison with say, the amount of people looking to rent over the same period. This will allow a more accurate conclusion as to which way the rental market is heading.

 

[hobo-jo]

What turk is asking me to do is put my entire argument into every post I make. He is right in saying that the statistics I posted in this thread do not make the whole argument for the statement I made, but I'm not going to provide data for everything I post unless the other user is doing the same. It's not expected of any other user here, why of me? Simply because turk and some others seem to have a personal isssue with my being here.

For the record I don't think the market is particularly tight at the moment.

To add a little more to this:

Vacancy rates on a national level aren't at a noticeable low in comparison to any other time in the last 6 years.
http://sqmresearch.com.au/graph_vacancy.php?national=1&t=1

We have around 6%+ of rental properties being discounted every week based on REFind data:
http://refindhouseprices.com/

And as I mentioned there are almost 20% more properties advertised for rent at the moment than the same time last year.

 

[turk]

What turk is asking me to do is put my entire argument into every post I make. He is right in saying that the statistics I posted in this thread do not make the whole argument for the statement I made, but I'm not going to provide data for everything I post unless the other user is doing the same. It's not expected of any other user here, why of me? Simply because turk and some others seem to have a personal isssue with my being here.

For the record I don't think the market is particularly tight at the moment.

To add a little more to this:

Vacancy rates on a national level aren't at a noticeable low in comparison to any other time in the last 6 years.
http://sqmresearch.com.au/graph_vac...ind data: [url]http://refindhouseprices.com/

And as I mentioned there are almost 20% more properties advertised for rent at the moment than the same time last year.

hobo-jo

I have no personal issue with you being here, others need to speak for themselves.


No, I am not asking you to put your entire argument in every post


However you linked this statement

"So while things might be tight in some specific areas, that is clearly not the case on a national basis"

to the data and I for one can't see "clearly" how this is not the case.

A limited supply side set of data adds very little if anything to a supply/demand discussion, nor does labelling a person a troll when they
query a posting on a public forum.