Housing shortage and population growth

Shortage? What shortage?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...dercut-claim-of-australian-home-shortage.html
Australia has almost 1 million fewer households than assumed in government forecasts of a housing shortage, raising doubts about a supply shortfall cited as the main reason the nation will avoid a U.S.-style crash.

The Pacific nation had 7.8 million households, data released yesterday from the 2011 Census showed. That compared with estimates of 8.7 million as of June 2010, according to the latest figures used by the National Housing Supply Council, a group created by the government in May 2008 to monitor housing demand, supply and affordability. Australia’s population also grew by 300,000 less than previously estimated, to 21.5 million.

“There’s been a bit of a disconnect between the estimates between the census points and the actual census data,” said David Cannington, Melbourne-based economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. (ANZ) “My feeling is that some of the underlying housing demand numbers will be revised down.”

Australia faces a shortage of about 369,000 homes by 2016, under a medium household growth scenario, which assumes the nation will have 9.7 million households by that time, the council said in a report released last week. While home prices across Australia’s eight state capitals fell for a fifth consecutive quarter in the three months through March, the longest stretch of losses on record, the Council has maintained that the gap between supply and underlying demand has widened.

The council’s figures are based on the last census, conducted in 2006, with adjustments for additions and reductions of homes, said Owen Donald, Sydney-based chairman of the National Housing Supply Council, in a telephone interview.

“On the face of it, 900,000 is a gigantic difference,” he said. “We need to get to the bottom of what’s in the statistics bureau numbers.”
 
Correction: There is (and always has been) a shortage of properties in areas where people want to live. Plenty of houses in the sticks, for sure.
 
From 2006:


Construction industry says housing crisis has hit California

By Avi Rutschman [email protected]


The California Building Industry Association (CBIA) continues to express alarm over what it calls an ongoing housing crisis in Southern California.

Alan Nevin, the association’s chief economist, projected in a 2006 CBIA Housing Forecast that only 185,000 to 205,000 building permits will be granted this year, far short of the 240,000 new homes needed each year.

http://www.toacorn.com/news/2006-02-09/Front_page/005.html
 
'Data from the 2011 Census of Population and Housing will be released soon, enabling the Council to check its estimates of household numbers and assess whether factors like low levels of dwelling production, shortages of affordable housing and changing preferences for investment and housing consumption have increased household size and reduced home ownership rates, especially among young and middle aged people on lower incomes.'

http://www.nhsc.org.au/content/media_releases/2012/001.html

If there were more affordable houses there would be more households. It is being reflected in the style and size of housing now being brought to the market tho... market determined austerity.
 
Correction: There is (and always has been) a shortage of properties in areas where people want to live. Plenty of houses in the sticks, for sure.
That's definitely not the same context that spruikers have used time and time again over the past 10 years as prices having risen substantially across the board the past 10-15 years.
 
That's definitely not the same context that spruikers have used time and time again over the past 10 years as prices having risen substantially across the board the past 10-15 years.

Yes well I think that's because people in those areas buy what they can afford, not what they should be paying.
 
Is there a relationship between population growth and house prices.....no.
Debt fueled the bubble.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IVbhAJ8zl4

Not population growth per se, but the demand for less properties than there are people in a given area will do it.

For example; go out to Central Victoria and see all the little towns where no-one wants to live any more, and see what a house costs in one of those, compared to one of the really nice suburbs with all the amenities and so forth not far from the CBD.

Unfortunately almost all today's immigrants only want to be city dwellers, so there's yer population increase causing increasing demand.
 
Perth is experiencing a demand lead upswing now and at some stage in the cycle one day even Sydney will follow

...wash your mouth out son....Perth follows Sydney, everything follows Sydney. Sydney is the leader of everything and in everything.

Get with the program. :)
 
Is there a relationship between population growth and house prices.....absolutely. Karratha is a perfect example of supply and demand in motion. Perth is experiencing a demand lead upswing now and at some stage in the cycle one day even Sydney will follow

as someone who has both bought and sold recently i agree with this, there is a pretty big difference between the market today and 6 months ago, or even 3 months ago
 
Is there a relationship between population growth and house prices.....absolutely. Karratha is a perfect example of supply and demand in motion. Perth is experiencing a demand lead upswing now and at some stage in the cycle one day even Sydney will follow

I'm very exposed to Syd and keep reading with dismay about Perth taking off. Great for WA investoprs though. Can't remember the last time Syd had DRAMATIC growth in rents and not sure what the next catalyst will be. The decent increases 3-4 yrs ago were good but nothing out of this world.
 
it's hard to say, it has so much natural attraction that I'm sure once the commodities boom rolls out and leveraged finance deals are fashionable again it will be all go. Plus the commodities wealth will wash around the nation. I can;t see it being a major structural collapse such as Coolgardie or Detroit.

interesting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coolgardie,_Western_Australia

"At its peak, 700 mining companies based in Coolgardie were registered with the London Stock Exchange."
 
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