OK I just shorted an oil stock on the NYSE at 0942.... come to pappa.
and out for a 0.88 R return
now I can sleep.
and out for a 0.88 R return
now I can sleep.
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im calling bottom
- Thread starter boomtown
- Start date
Not sure on that on,i still think before all this mess is washed away we will see the ASX at mid 3400 levels, i may well be wrong and BHP may well go below $18.00 the problem is no one knows and as all Bankers don't tell the full story untill just before they go belly-up,but it has been a interesting experience trading in a bear market for the last year now and with the amount of calls i get from,small start up companies making unsolicited offers to buy shares at xx% of market day prices
then the bottom is not in sight yet..if you want to learn something about the way these unsolicited offers work,then try this company
..hassle free share sales pty ltd[HFSS] you will learn somthing..imho..willair..
Will, 3200 will get us back to 2002 level consumption. But with tight credit and a recession on its way, even that level of consumption won't be sustainable.
Came across an interesting leading indicator of global economic activity, the Baltic Exchange Dry Index, which monitors shipping of raw materials to producer economies. It has halved in the last 4 weeks. That includes iron ore into China. China might have just decided to consume its large stock pile but it is ominous that China could cut its productivity by anywhere near 50%.
And I wouldn't count on BHP to be talking about this index.
Winston i know what you are saying,the emotional quicksand factor comes into play in times like these,i'm longterm and i agree we will have a recession in a few parts of Australia but it will not be as bad as people think,it's not about missing the boom party anymore just have to be patient ,the US will bonce back that's the problem with mob influence everyone thinks the same,when they sell at a loss-they always miss the uptrend position to profit..imho....willair..Will, 3200 will get us back to 2002 level consumption. But with tight credit and a recession on its way, even that level of consumption won't be sustainable.
hope you don't have to wait too long for the recovery. but it is not only the emotional quicksand, it is the fear that halts consumption = job losses= downwards vortex.
Britain freezing Iceland's assets is ominous. And I think it signals there'll be more countries taking the every man for himself route.
I cannot see stability and calm coming back anytime soon.....the xjo went under 4000 this morning.
Maybe so you get to a certain level in investing where you have to ask yourself if you are a investor or speculator,the speculator had done well up too late last year,now the cashed up investors will come out..imho..
Just making a noise.
'Twould be foolish to "buy the market" tomorrow on such a hunch. There will be some sectors that will do OK (Probably those that have held up in the recent weeks) and others that will continue to slide.
But on the other hand
Sounds a bit like;
Red?... or Black?
Odd?...or Even?
It amazes me how many line up for it and get creamed.
But imagine if you got it right!
GP
I think the time to get it right is nearly upon those who are prepared and cashed up.
There will be a lot of very cheap good quality stocks around soon. Maybe even right now?
No gambling required either.
Interesting. The professionals in the stock industry, universally, have no idea at the moment.
Don't I recall all this "logic" re buying the banks a couple of weeks ago? NAB is off 20% since and good investors don't set themselves for a 20% drawdown with "anything" still possible.
We are in uncharted waters and anyone trading now is "having a go", not investing. Now someone "having a go" will get it right and that's great, but most won't.
The odds of the majority of share punters on the forum are much worse than 50/50 in the current market.
They would wish for odds that good. That's why so many get creamed.
And don't worry, i've been creamed big time. Its pretty much the only thing that makes you a good share investor/trader.
They would wish for odds that good. That's why so many get creamed.
And don't worry, i've been creamed big time. Its pretty much the only thing that makes you a good share investor/trader.
The best share trader I know is the only one who called it right and he is laughing his head off at the moment. He's the cat that got the cream.
And BTW he is still out and staying out.Louise
More predictions
This is from an article in AFR on 17th September. I don't have a link so will just type an extract.
....The analyst (David Hunt) who correctly forecast the S&P/ASX200 would fall to 4800 is warning of another six weeks of falling share prices - with the benchmark as low as 4270......Hunt who uses a combination of fundamentals, time cycles and market geometry, expects the S&P/ASX200 to bottom in late October or early November, after the US's S&P500 bottoms in mid October.
"The time cycles are more important than price targets. In a panic, targets can get blown away. When markets make real bottoms, they fall hard."
"The next achievable target for the ASX is 4220 - 4270. There's an outside chance of it hitting 3440 and if we get down that far this year, it will be the end of the bear market. If not, we will rally to February and then get smashed."
there was more but that is the meat of it, interesting that the first part of his prediction is starting to form in the mist. The knives are still falling!
Cheers
Darren
This is from an article in AFR on 17th September. I don't have a link so will just type an extract.
....The analyst (David Hunt) who correctly forecast the S&P/ASX200 would fall to 4800 is warning of another six weeks of falling share prices - with the benchmark as low as 4270......Hunt who uses a combination of fundamentals, time cycles and market geometry, expects the S&P/ASX200 to bottom in late October or early November, after the US's S&P500 bottoms in mid October.
"The time cycles are more important than price targets. In a panic, targets can get blown away. When markets make real bottoms, they fall hard."
"The next achievable target for the ASX is 4220 - 4270. There's an outside chance of it hitting 3440 and if we get down that far this year, it will be the end of the bear market. If not, we will rally to February and then get smashed."
there was more but that is the meat of it, interesting that the first part of his prediction is starting to form in the mist. The knives are still falling!
Cheers
Darren
I love the NAB right now, its made me a few pretty pennies over the past few weeks going up and down up and down. Maybe I'm the only one who likes this yo-yo situation.
Ok calling new bottom for the DOW - 7500.
Thats the level it bottomed at post 9/11 and also in 1998 on the run up to 10,000. If it breaks through 7500 Ill start to worry.
Source: http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1960.html
Thats the level it bottomed at post 9/11 and also in 1998 on the run up to 10,000. If it breaks through 7500 Ill start to worry.
Source: http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/djia1960.html
The bottom for tonight or for this bear market?
While 9/11 was a tragedy, can't you see a lot more reasoning behind the drops at this time?
Personally I could see it dropping a lot lower than 7500 (even if only for a short time).
