Inflation

In case some people are wondering if past CPI figures can be used as an indication of future CPI, the answer is "by and large, no".

I personally factor in either 2.75 or 3.00% CPI pa (the upper bounds of the RBA's 2 - 3% target) when I run excel spreadsheets.

The relatively large inflation spike in Graph 1 (above) was as a result of the effect of the GST. Aside from that we have basically had 12 years or so of sub 4% CPI.

For those who have the time / inclination, you'll find that link on Monetary Policy a worthwhile read.

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