Interest Rate
- Thread starter giraffez
- Start date
OK, I'll bight:
Nope, peaked and likely to start falling by H1 2009 when growth slows in the Aus economy, potentially to the point of recession.
Well, you didn't say I had to qualify my response!
OK, here's a little qualification anyway:
http://business.smh.com.au/consumer-sentiment-falls-to-15year-low/20080409-24s0.html
That SMH article said:
Cheers,
Michael
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,23508351-5016110,00.html
Rates will go down according to this
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,23508351-5016110,00.html
Rates will go up according to this
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,23466452-5016110,00.html
Rates will go up according to some
Rates will go down according to some
Roll a dice
even go for article number 1
Odd go for article number 2
And if its odd or even go for article number 3....
Or you could just roll a dice and predict if its going to go up or down
Rates will go down according to this
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,23508351-5016110,00.html
Rates will go up according to this
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,23466452-5016110,00.html
Rates will go up according to some
Rates will go down according to some
Roll a dice
even go for article number 1
Odd go for article number 2
And if its odd or even go for article number 3....
Or you could just roll a dice and predict if its going to go up or down
Bailz66,
Those first two links are the same and both pointing to rates at 6%! That seals it, rates are definately coming down!!
Cheers,
Michael
PS all of my loans are still variable and currently at 8.5% after my 80bp discount on the WBC pro pack. I can't see rates going up more than half a percent from here so fixing seems counter-productive. If they do break through 9% then it will cripple the economy. These days I think a wait and see approach on rate fixing is prudent. Things look to have slowed sufficiently for the RBA to sit on its hands for a while at current levels. 2009 should see some easing with a bit of luck.
Those first two links are the same and both pointing to rates at 6%! That seals it, rates are definately coming down!!
Cheers,
Michael
PS all of my loans are still variable and currently at 8.5% after my 80bp discount on the WBC pro pack. I can't see rates going up more than half a percent from here so fixing seems counter-productive. If they do break through 9% then it will cripple the economy. These days I think a wait and see approach on rate fixing is prudent. Things look to have slowed sufficiently for the RBA to sit on its hands for a while at current levels. 2009 should see some easing with a bit of luck.
BIS Shrapnel predicts there will be a further 0.5% increase before it comes down in 2009. They are probably the most expert opinion on this and fairly much spot on in their last few years of predictions. Even then its as accurate as flipping a coin and picking heads instead of tails
i think the historic average for the cashrate is around 5.75%, so currently at 7.25% it is supposed to be on the high side
for me, i fixed nearly all my loans with fairly big gap in their reset dates, essentially going for the average rate in the long run
i think the historic average for the cashrate is around 5.75%, so currently at 7.25% it is supposed to be on the high side
for me, i fixed nearly all my loans with fairly big gap in their reset dates, essentially going for the average rate in the long run
As recently as the February 2008 Statement on Monetary Policy the RBA indicated it saw further interest rate rises as being "likely" (see p. 6 of that link).
What they say next month???
M
What they say next month???
M
Actually the lack of accuracy of their interest rate forecasts is legendary and well known to many long term members here (link to a 2005 thread that discusses this).
M
Yep. Can't recall an accurate prediction.
Mine were too and this has been my thinking for 6/9 mths. In hindsight I wished I fixed back then so decided to bite the bullet now and hedge my bets ......rather than have more hindsight down the track at 9.5%
Add....I got in before the last rise. My banker (ANZ) tells me it is only a $300 penalty to convert back to variable AND I can pay up to $5,000 extra a year .. ... a surprise to me!
I'm not sure I trust the banks anymore, doing their own thing and rasing rates at will .. does it matter what the RBA says?
I'm not sure I trust the banks anymore, doing their own thing and rasing rates at will .. does it matter what the RBA says?
You used to trust them?
So when the banks cut rates below the 'standard variable rate' via professional packages and so on, did you think that something smelled wrong?
Alex
I guess I haven't been following this long enough
I've only started following them around 2006 and following their predictions served me wellRBA might cut rates . .. but can you trust the banks to pass it on?
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/pages...tml?in_article_id=558263&in_page_id=1770&ct=5
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/pages...tml?in_article_id=558263&in_page_id=1770&ct=5
Hard to say which way rates will turn, but with a $1 trillion deficit is the USA, I think we'll still see some volatility here.
Have just got unconditional finance on IP06 & fixed for 2 years @ 8.57%. This gives me the SANF!!
Have just got unconditional finance on IP06 & fixed for 2 years @ 8.57%. This gives me the SANF!!
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