Interesting bit of info for you all.

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From: Peter Davidson


Here are the weekly Auction clearance rates for Melbourne:

51% Sold
49% Passed In.

This is the lowest it has been since I've been collecting stats. You really got to wonder what is going on here people. Can I smell a bust?

I wonder whether it is:

a) A weakening market
b) Hungry Vendors
c) Just too much stock available

You decide.....

An interesting note though. After scanning through the results most properties on average were 20-60K below reserve. There were some 5-10k below reserve, but I can't help think that these were dummy bids. A few houses didn't even get a bid!!! Unheard of 6 months ago. Tell you what, it's going to be an interesting next 6 months.
 
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Reply: 1
From: Anony Mouse


Peter
I think it's A,B,C plus the fact that it is inevitable from basic analysis.

"A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on the support of Paul."
Of course, Paul's support is obvious, but it is equally obvious that to rob from Peter to pay Paul will make Peter
very, very angry.
My question is this: "How can you run a good government with a sore Peter?"
 
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Reply: 1.1
From: GoAnna !


Hi Peter

I was wondering what formula you use to calculate those that passed in. Do you remove those that sold prior to auction and just look at what happened on the actual auction day? The reason I ask is the official figure according to The Age on Sunday was 61%. They however include those properties that have been sold before.

Thanks for the interesting numbers :eek:)

GoAnna !
"The real measure of your wealth is how much you'd be worth if you lost all your money."
 
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Reply: 1.1.1
From: Michael Croft


Hi all,

As far as clearance rates are concerned my rule of thumb is; >65% is a sellers market with few 'good' opportunities; <25% is a buyers market and all that entails. The 25-65% range is where the market is turning or indecisive and opportunities can be good.

The reason for the big 'indecisive' range is because in spite of the protestations of economists, the 'market mechanism' is far from perfect and has many variables. It also depends on if the market is turning up from a protracted flat period or coming off the boil. For example 30% clearance rates towards the end of a boom does not a buying 'op' make, and 60% clearance rates at the beginning of a boom may well be a great time to buy.

Basically my rules of thumb are designed to make it easier for me to access the market at a glance. This gives more time for other stuff whilst staying on top of the situation. And what if I get it wrong?? Property is a slow moving target so another deal or opportunity is just around the corner, literally!

Michael Croft
"The best parachute folders are those who jump themselves."
 
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Reply: 1.1.2
From: Astro Boy


Hi guys,

I'm wondering where you source the clearance rates? Go_anna - you mentioned the age (for melbourne obviously) is that a regular thing, or just part of an article you came across?

I'm particularly interested in the figures for NSW.

Cheers

 
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Reply: 1.1.2.1
From: Peter Davidson


I get the figures from the HERALD-SUN. Anna, these figures did not include "Sold Before", just auction results.

Pete.
 
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