Yeah,I'm new too and shopping in many of the areas these guys are so keen to diss. I'd love to hear more of their personal stories- to put together with those of Sash and Willfong and others who are quite positive about these areas. I quite like melbourne's inner west too, for the limited amount that that is worth.
IP in Hoppers Crossing/Werribee (VIC)
- Thread starter mysterious_guy
- Start date
Tuppence, I am rather inexperienced too in this game and am here to learn, definitely not worth being mentioned in the same line as Sash. Only 1 PPOR and 1 IP at the moment, both in Melbourne inner west. Was planning to get IP#2 this year but the arrival of our firstborn and going down to single income changed our priority for the year so at this stage we are looking at 2nd quarter of next year for next IP and are definitely considering the areas that we are more familiar with.
Having said that I just felt that I had to say something when someone who lives in outer east just come in and talk down the whole of western suburbs as if it's inferior to where they live. Having previously lived for 3 years in mid ring eastern suburbs (in box hill and burwood east area) I can honestly say I like where I currently live better. If it were Hawthorn or Camberwell then yeah I would like to live there (although I would more likely to prefer Essendon if I were to upgrade from Maribyrnong). Cheers.
Having said that I just felt that I had to say something when someone who lives in outer east just come in and talk down the whole of western suburbs as if it's inferior to where they live. Having previously lived for 3 years in mid ring eastern suburbs (in box hill and burwood east area) I can honestly say I like where I currently live better. If it were Hawthorn or Camberwell then yeah I would like to live there (although I would more likely to prefer Essendon if I were to upgrade from Maribyrnong). Cheers.
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Hmmmm
Aazar, DeeHwa and Deltaberry all pushing the same line, all joined at the same time. Coincidence?
I hear that a lot of GenY's make a living by doing things like this. Get hired, by say a buyers agent or two, to spruke inner city property...
Aazar, DeeHwa and Deltaberry all pushing the same line, all joined at the same time. Coincidence?
I hear that a lot of GenY's make a living by doing things like this. Get hired, by say a buyers agent or two, to spruke inner city property...
Good pick-up....will give them the opportunity to explain what they have done....I await with bated breath.....
Someone being on this site for two months and offering no insight into their success makes me a but skeptical.....
Someone being on this site for two months and offering no insight into their success makes me a but skeptical.....
If I remember correctly, this is a thread discussing about IP's in Hoppers Crossing and Werribee and hence, my discussion has been firmly fixated on arguments catered towards what I believe, and demonstrated through both anecdotal and historical evidence, how investing in such areas are poor. Since when have I mentioned anything about the inner west? Sure, I admit I think the inner west is undesirable, affordability aside, but that has never been the point.
So on what basis do you base you assertion on the inner west on? You've made it very clear that at the moment inner city is the best investment cycle and anyone who invests in Hoppers or Werribee are pretty much idiots and wasting there time. As has been asked before, what is your property strategy.
I'm still trying to work out my strategy but it is based on the buy and hold method. I must say Werribee does appeal to me a bit as the prices are good and the location is quite good and it is only about 30 minutes by train to the city. Purely on location from the city and freeway access I think Werribee is like Dandenong, except you can get to city quicker by train from Werribee. I can see Weribee becoming more expensive than Dandenong and if that happens then I believe investors in Werribee would have done well and would be very happy.
As for your arguments about the inner city, it sounds like to me a bit like the dot com boom. Don't worry about the income that the asset gets, but only worry about the capital growth. If the rents in the inner city aren't growing (I don't know enough about this to really comment) at a similar rate as CG, then the CG will eventually slow down or even reverse. I accept that inner city places do have lower yields than outer suburbs, but let's say the yield is at 3% at the moment, if the yield goes to 1% and rents don't rise quickly enough, I can't see the CG continuing. I'm sure you will be able to keep telling me about great gains in the inner city, but great short term gains in isolation raises more questions and it answers. Dot.com companies had great short term gains. Not saying that inner city will loose a lot of there gains (don't know enough about inner city properties to comment), but if you are going to talk up inner city properties and bag the hell out of the outer suburbs and people who invest in the outer suburbs, then at least show some evidence that the CG are based on fundementals (IE. rents are increasing).
As asked before answer the question about your property strategy.
Good pick-up....will give them the opportunity to explain what they have done....I await with bated breath.....
Someone being on this site for two months and offering no insight into their success makes me a but skeptical.....
As I have highlighted in my other posts (which I don't blame you given no one seriously goes and reads everyone's posts and I certainly don't), I recently bought a house in Brunswick, on a little patch of land with a house the size of a shoebox. 1.5 months after I purchased, the agent called me to see how things are (as they usually do to market themselves) and told me how great my buy was given another house on the same street sold for more than mine despite the land being way smaller, worst condition, no carparking, requires renovation and directly opposite 3 story flats. He told me that my house would easily be worth another $100K and this is prior to my settlement. Sure, the agent could be exaggerating, but hey, auction results don't lie and Brunswick prices are flying through the roof as we know and I believe there is some truth in what the agent said.
Given you tempted me Sash, I have read back some of Deltaberry's posts and he/she mentioned potential capital gains of 25%, but puts it at a conservative 15% capital gain despite only buying recently. Is this wishful thinking? I don't think so given Deltaberry mentioned a house next door sold for way more than the price he/she paid. Can you achieve potential capital gains of 25% within a couple of months in Werribee? I highly doubt it. I can't really talk about Aazar although the suburb Carlton has popped up frequently so I assume he/she has either bought in Carlton or lives in Carlton.
As for my success, well, the only property asset I have is the Brunswick house so definitely not up there. However, I would like to mention that my house is not far off from $1mil (probably get there in 2 years I reckon) and I am 24. Yes, I am young, but as I said 'vision is not defined by experience' and vision can be bequeathed to anyone. I am not saying that I have vision, only time will tell, but what I am saying is that just because I don't have longevity nor a portfolio of 10+ properties each worth $150K does not make me a less superior investor, or less insightful. You should however ask yourself the question how a 24 year old can get into a position to afford a house knocking on the doors of the $1mil price tag. And it started from my parents (who came to Australia as boat people with literally nothing) and knew better to invest in little shoeboxes in inner city...
No, I did not say at the moment inner city is the best investment cycle. In fact, you asking the question of my property strategy is already a contradiction because otherwise, that would have been my strategy my Pickle Pickle friend. I did not in fact assert anything. All I basically said, as you pointed out elaborately, is that property investment in Werribee and Hoppers is poor, period.
I also have a bias for buy and hold. The only exception is buy, develop and sell. I am Chinese, so asset accumulation is very important in our wealth building philosophy. Werribee is a bargain hunter's suburb and this means that only cheapskates buy there. This gives rise to a fundamental problem - lack of emotional premium and hence, subdued capital growth in my opinion. Also, as I have highlighted on numerous times, capital growth is often an illusion because everything else has gone up as well. The key is to exceed the capital growth in your subsequent purchase or in the next asset class you wish to buy into. How is a place like Werribee going to achieve that when it is plagued by bargain hunters who only buy with their heads, and not their hearts? Again...it is emotional premium, remember it!
I won't even start to discuss/argue what you just said but let me highlight one thing. History has shown that capital gains do continue despite low yields and I don't see a reason why it can't continue into the future. People buy inner city, inner east, east etc. because of emotional premium and because it is a home and not just a house. That is where the capital growth is. At the end of the day, there are more owner occupiers than investors. Capital growth is not always based on fundamentals...that is a huge myth and if you believe everything is based on fundamentals and requires a scientific explanation...then you have completely misunderstood the concept of irrational human psychology.
My property strategy is multi-faceted and too detailed to explain. Maybe we can catch up for coffee, haha, if you really want to know the details. Anyways, to summarise, I think people will increasingly be priced out of the east, inner east, south east, bayside etc. yet there is huge stigma associated with the west so I think people (especially generation Y's) will buy up in the north as the next best (hence why I bought in Brunswick). There is a reason why places like Northcote, Fairfield have completely rocketed. If you so value my advice, then I would suggest investing in the next ring of northern suburbs (depending on affordability) which would be Coburg, Preston, Thornbury and Pascoe Vale South. Otherwise, buy up in Coburg North, Reservoir, Lower Plenty with the extent up to Fawkner. These are for houses btw... I have other strategies for other dwelling types but would be too long to discuss here.
Hmmm......
So you reckon vision is not defined by experience eh....so you are the new visionary on a property site full of investors....and what you have to offer is something different?
Mate.....the median price in Brunswick is $550k odd....and you are telling me that you will have a product worth $1m in 2 years. Well if that does occur please sell it then because....that is when the it will also drop at some point.
As to me owning properties worth $150k each....it is more like an average of around $280-300k. Now do the numbers...if I have properties in double digits.
I realise that you are only 24...good on you for taking the leap of faith. But take a leaf out of an old man's (I am 42) book.....experience is the best teacher.
Let me ask you a question....you say you bought a property in Brunswick...did you fix the rate? Can you service the loan at 7.5%? Do you have a buffer?
I look forward to your response.
So you reckon vision is not defined by experience eh....so you are the new visionary on a property site full of investors....and what you have to offer is something different?
Mate.....the median price in Brunswick is $550k odd....and you are telling me that you will have a product worth $1m in 2 years. Well if that does occur please sell it then because....that is when the it will also drop at some point.
As to me owning properties worth $150k each....it is more like an average of around $280-300k. Now do the numbers...if I have properties in double digits.
I realise that you are only 24...good on you for taking the leap of faith. But take a leaf out of an old man's (I am 42) book.....experience is the best teacher.
Let me ask you a question....you say you bought a property in Brunswick...did you fix the rate? Can you service the loan at 7.5%? Do you have a buffer?
I look forward to your response.
Good pick-up....will give them the opportunity to explain what they have done....I await with bated breath.....
Someone being on this site for two months and offering no insight into their success makes me a but skeptical.....
To be honest, do you think I really care if you're a bit sceptical? Unlike (without mentioning names) some people, I don't need to tell people on the other side of my internet what I've invested in, what the returns are, what I own, how much I earn etc to validate my success. Besides what exatly do you want me to say? That I bought a building in the CBD not long ago for $5m and someone's just offered me $15m for it recently (just nominal figures, as I don't need to tell you the real figures to prove anything)? What's the point of a story like that?
The world is very big out there and for someone with a few million dollars to think you've seen it all and so readily dismiss an opinion from the other side (ie the east side) is perhaps a bit too impromptu. In any case I'm not here to compare who's richer - but suffice to say if you didn't lie about what you're worth, there's no point comparing.
What I've been saying about western suburbs is grounded in logical reasonings and arguments. But rather than address those arguments, you've decided to take a cheap shot and count my number of posts. My discussions are not meant to be personal, but obviously when you have so much at stake in an area and someone comes on here to point out the nuances in the investments, I can understand why you'd jump up and down firing rapid posts at me.
Why don't you take a step back and cool down a bit? I'm not trying to demean you here on the basis of how much you're worth, or the fact you invest in the west. But obviously you've taken it that way.
Do my arguments make more sense if I tell you what my stories are? If that's the case you're obviously not taking the comments as they are and you're just buying them on the basis that someone successful has made them.
I'll tell you what's like the dotcom boom. It's subdividers like my friends flocking to new suburbs, flooding the market with more parcels and my developer friends building yet again another complex of $2 houses to flood the market. Inner eastern suburbs are known as "blue-ribbon" because they have a proven track record and have withstood the test of time. Am entirely in awe at how you've compared these suburbs to dotcom.
By the way love your two "ifs" there. What if interest rates at 15% and everyone in Hoppers Crossing loses their job and are all forced to sell? The only comparison to dotcom is purely that. Working class who are stretch beyond their means on some 90% gearing working in factory roles. They are lucky the GFC didn't really impact Australia and only a few companies like Honda, GM and Service Stream took hits. The all glossy picture of the area now is by and large supported by the government's guarantee on mortgage default and also a surprising resilience in the economy, so people aren't out of jobs and defaulting.
Do you really think the relative proportion of gearing/mortgages is higher in an old suburb like Kew than Hoppers Crossing?
Buying property is not just about picking yields and gains potential, seeing what developments are in store etc. It's also about looking at the downside to the overall economy, shifts in demographics etc. Where do you see the economy headed? Where do you see rates headed? Who's most at risk of losing their jobs and defaulting if things take a turn? Is a double dip still going to happen? Have you really considered these issues?
Part of my views and experience comes from a corporate background dealing with multi-billion dollar companies on strategic advisory and their views on this economy. Besides being old doesn't necesarilly mean you've seen all that or appreciate its impact.
Mate.....the median price in Brunswick is $550k odd....and you are telling me that you will have a product worth $1m in 2 years. Well if that does occur please sell it then because....that is when the it will also drop at some point.
I look forward to your response.
3BR small weatherboard house behind Victoria St (ie far end of Brunswick) quoted 700k-770k.
Sold for 855k
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2008052795
3BR house right off Albion St. Another weatherboard house. And you can't get much further from the centre of Brunswick than this. Sold for 803k
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2008052797
Edward St is around 4-5 blocks closer to Brunswick Rd and borders Parkville. You might not know as I've noticed you're starting to talk without thinking about or looking at the facts. A simple search on Domain would've revealed these prices to you.
But again, just for your interest
http://www.domain.com.au/Public/PropertyDetails.aspx?adid=2008030796
Run-down 2BR house to be knocked down and rebuilt on, sold for $1.76m
I'm sure it's all going to crash soon. These buyers must be complete idiots paying so much for a suburb worth $550k. Looking forward to your views on when's this crash coming, because I'd love to pick these up for $550k. Even $750k would make me happy.
Cheers
Heres my 2 cents.
I bet, that Hoppers/Werribee will see 7% compounding growth in to the future.
But if M. Yardney is right and the population booms it may see more.
I bet, that Hoppers/Werribee will see 7% compounding growth in to the future.
But if M. Yardney is right and the population booms it may see more.
I don't understand how people can assume that just because Melbourne's population is set to grow from new migrants, that this automatically affects their own area's property prices. That is just plain wrong. The question is, do these migrants have money?
If they are refugees/poor, then of course having them live in your area is not going to increase prices! If anything, it would stagnate the value of the area that they settle in. Further, they would settle in the cheapest, most run down part of Melbourne (i.e. the West). Contrast this with the rich Chinese who are coming here - people who live where the Chinese want to live will definitely see their property prices increase because they have money to spend on buying houses (e.g. Box Hill, Campberwell).
Moreover, migrants are not stupid - they would rather live in the best, established suburbs - why would rich people from a poorer country want to live in Werribee? It just doesn't accord with human nature nor logic.
If they are refugees/poor, then of course having them live in your area is not going to increase prices! If anything, it would stagnate the value of the area that they settle in. Further, they would settle in the cheapest, most run down part of Melbourne (i.e. the West). Contrast this with the rich Chinese who are coming here - people who live where the Chinese want to live will definitely see their property prices increase because they have money to spend on buying houses (e.g. Box Hill, Campberwell).
Moreover, migrants are not stupid - they would rather live in the best, established suburbs - why would rich people from a poorer country want to live in Werribee? It just doesn't accord with human nature nor logic.
Well that's true. If Brunswick experienced a 30-50% crash, I'm sure you'd have other things to worry about. Either China's waging war with the USA, or Macquarie Bank has collapsed or unemployment has reached 15.6%. And most people's house prices on here might have crashed 80% by then given their buying propensity for some areas.
