Irresponsible scaremongering
- Thread starter lizzie
- Start date
If dent is right then you would be no chance of buying a bunch of properties on credit after they have fallen 40 or 50%.
The irony is you would be more chance getting credit now for a house worth 500k paying $500.00 a week rent than a loan for same in say 3 years when it is worth 250k paying $500.00 a week rent.
Houses will not drop to those levels unless there is a catastrophe in our credit conditions. If that happens make no mistake houses are more "affordable" now than they will be after a 50% fall.
This is not a recomendation to buy now only that it will be a contraction in credit that causes such a rout so don't expect to be able to cruise around using other peoples money to buy homes when they are well into cf+ territory.
Price is only one factor that detirmines affordability.
If you mean you are going to go out and buy them without credit, than they are always cf+...
like spludgey i don't think dent will be right. but if he is............
- rent's will drop
- vacancies will rise
- lvr's will tighten
- serviceability will tighten
- you'll be glad to have a tenant who pays the rent some of the time just to stop the property being looted.
Nothing irresponsible.
Freedom of speech. Some would say there's irresponsible spruiking.
I saw a document from Harry Dent's website (can't seem to find it again to link, though) that shows Australia having a sharp rise in spending around 2025, much more pronounced than most other countries.
Be interesting to see what happens.
Be interesting to see what happens.
I'm optimistic on the US, but there's no question that Europe presents a very nasty dilemma.
The PIIGS look like they could bankrupt Europe if they stay in the Euro. But if they leave the Euro and return to their former national currencies, they'll be forced to devalue these to reduce their bond servicing burdens, which would bring down the European banks that lent to the PIIGS. Either way, Europe faces social catastrophe, and the rest of the world is plunged back into a very deep recession.
I'm wondering if they perhaps need to split the Euro into two currencies (i.e. a 'soft' Euro and a 'hard' Euro) under the control of the European Central Bank, to permit an orderly devalation of the soft Euro? This might give European banks a painful but tolerable clipping, while giving the PIIGS time to get their houses in order.
I too think the Euro days are numbered. Looks like the UK were wise in hindsight. It really was never going to work if you look at the differing economies, work ethics, politics, resource bases of each country.
If they were under one government, law and employment policies then it "might" have worked.
If they were under one government, law and employment policies then it "might" have worked.
When the Euro cracks (the main question now seems to be how and when) australian property (and the asx for that matter) will be in serious trouble. The strange thing about GFC II is that it's not going to be much of a surprise. Everyone will have had a chance to make whatever arrangements they can to protect themselves.
Personally I'm in bonds and commodities.
Personally I'm in bonds and commodities.
It was interesting to see a number of properties on the US News (I'm up and about early) prior to our news shows starting, titled "Properties under $500,000.00" as they reviewed a number of properties for sale in various areas across the USofA
The above thread had me thinking of the oft quoted markets within markets, as many areas in Australia have had a pull-back in prices whilst others have forged ahead
I had a quick google and read that in some areas properties in the US have held thier values and some even increased i.e.
link
The most expensive Cities in AMERICA (2011) are touted as per below
Link
The above thread had me thinking of the oft quoted markets within markets, as many areas in Australia have had a pull-back in prices whilst others have forged ahead
I had a quick google and read that in some areas properties in the US have held thier values and some even increased i.e.
link
The most expensive Cities in AMERICA (2011) are touted as per below
Link
If that eventuates, then he (and his cohort) will become "market makers"
Personally, and let me caveat I am no bear, I don't consider the breather that generic property markets in Australia are currenttly taking to be a bad thing. It is unlikely that everyone is going to up and sell their IP's or homes for that matter. Prices may indeed soften some more and then trend sideways for a while. Indeed prices rarely trend up for more than about a third of a resi property cycle anyway. The rest of the time they come back a bit and go sideways. It's time for the thermostat to be readjusted.
Yipee kayay will take some time to return. Watch Europe as others have also mentioned. Unless yields are super juicy or people are buying a PPOR (and emotion kicks in), I think there is no rush to be investing in most Aussie markets for growth right now. Only if active meaures are being taken such as creation of equity with sub-division, granny flats, and so on may growth occur. The passive buy, hold, pray and bleed waiting for growth is years away IMO.
I agree that these reports can be somewhat sensationalist, however that's what the datasphere likes. Sells more press and media advertising. He is also promoting his new book. I have actually read The Great Depression Ahead and the book is not as bearish as the title suggests. He does focus on demographics heavily and I find that of interest as he talks about cycles from that perspective.
I don't necessarily agree with the magnitude of correction that he proposes, however I find his insights interesting and sobering. It will be a while before I call Gidee Up in Australian resi markets. I am looking however and am seeing some increasing yields right now. When the time is right I shall invest, however it doesn't look like it will be any time soon.
Even the permabulls are starting to detect the smell of blood in the water.....
I wish there were more people like you on this forum. The reading and 'ideas' would be alot more intelligent and useful.
lizzie, if you remember back in 1976 in Adelaide, a Melbourne housepainter John Nash (turned psychic) predicted a catastrophe after he had a dream that much of Adelaide would be wiped out by an earthquake and tidal wave at noon on January 19, 1976. (we didn't call them tsunamis in those days)
His prediction became rumour. The rumour became an inevitable fact. People sold beachfront properties for bargain prices. Occupancy at foreshore hotels and motels dropped to 25 per cent. Hundreds of people, particularly of Greek and Italian backgrounds, fled inland as far as the Riverland, their cars loaded with personal possessions, to avoid the ocean-generated holocaust.
The then premier, Don Dunstan (not sure if I remember him wearing pink shorts that day), went down to the beach along with a few thousand others to prove there would be no disaster.
The appointed time came and went and the crowds wandered away. The following morning ,The Advertiser editorial said: "Hopefully, the lesson we should all have learnt from yesterday's pathetic anticlimax is to rely more on our common sense and less on the silly and unscientific speculation of self-appointed soothsayers.''
I can't help but draw parallels to the situation with American economic forecaster Harry Dent and the recent headlines of "AUSTRALIA'S love affair with property is about to turn sour as an "economic tsunami'' looks set to hit world markets".
Maybe I've seen too many of these dire predictions all before......yawn.
These words disgust me, Harry Dent didn't have a DREAM, do you know what fractional reserve bank lending is??? Housing today is being operated with ponzi debt lending. Harry also is pointing out that baby boobers are mostly going to retire!!
what planet are you fools from!!! Having to listen to the peasants and there uneducated, warped , self centered stab in the dark analysis on every possible issue is infuriating!!
The analogy I was drawing was not to a DREAM it was to the prediction of both men to a TIDAL WAVE. Dent was predicting a tsunami to hit Aussie RE, Nash was predicting a tidal wave to hit Adelaide in 1976.
I think you misunderstand the nature of a public forum where people of ALL persuasions and opinions get to vent their opinion - just as you have vented yours.
If you want to filter your view of the world on this forum you can simply put members who you don't want to read on "ignore"....then you won't have to listen. Alternatively, you can choose the "power" button on your device and swith off.
Welcome to the forum btw....first post and all.
its not a well drawn analogy though, an economist making economic predictions is different from a brick layer dreaming about an environmental disaster.
I thought it was a pretty good one.
First post - no discussion - no facts - no logical analysis - agressive abuse ...
TROLL ALERT! TROLL ALERT!
Well seeing as economists dream about (and seek to apply that to the real world) a the perfect world with no transaction costs, a perfect market etc I don't think the analogy is that far off from the mark.
some not all economists, im not defending dents position even though demography imo is destiny...
i just think its a bad analogy and makes Dent's position seem as crazy as the Adelaide pot smoking guy, which it isnt based on whats happened in other world markets
Hypocrits!
I can't believe the hypocrisy i am witnessing here in this forum. Where were you guys when the real estate industry was using scaremongering to inflate the price of housing?
" Buy now or be left out of owning your own home!" was the catch cry being propagated by the media, real estate investment seminars , developers and real estate agents.
Well guess what?...you got to the top of the hill and now it's time to go down the other side.
Yes it is not in your favour, but unfortunately your time is over. Harry Dent is just telling the truth as it is and if you took off your blinders to look....the REAL facts actually support him.
who's really dreaming here? Wake up!
PS: Labelling someone a troll doesn't nullify the truth of what they are saying.
I can't believe the hypocrisy i am witnessing here in this forum. Where were you guys when the real estate industry was using scaremongering to inflate the price of housing?
" Buy now or be left out of owning your own home!" was the catch cry being propagated by the media, real estate investment seminars , developers and real estate agents.
Well guess what?...you got to the top of the hill and now it's time to go down the other side.
Yes it is not in your favour, but unfortunately your time is over. Harry Dent is just telling the truth as it is and if you took off your blinders to look....the REAL facts actually support him.
who's really dreaming here? Wake up!
PS: Labelling someone a troll doesn't nullify the truth of what they are saying.
