Labor in office, what will happened to property investment?

[willair]

imho.
I genuinely hope the weak hands do panic tomorrow: I have some dry powder. But it won't happen. The professionals will have already made any adjustments they think necessary.
LOL

This will be a simple test on monday morning,the ASX will follow the way the US market went on friday, i don't see any massive slides in value if there was you would have seen that in the numbers late last week..

But in six months time with higher interest rates,larger grocery bills, record credit card debt,and the way the price of petrol will go ,Mr Rudd will have to a lot pull a lot of rabbits out of his hat to keep everybody happy, what happened last night has no importance at all,not to me anyway....willair..
imho

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Would you seriously forgo profits just because of Rudd, or is your caution because you sense a change that was happening before todays result?

Hope this helps in your understanding of our decision.

Cheers,
Beef

******************
Dear Beef_Hooked

1. Thank you for your kind education.

2. I am still digesting and trying to learn from what you have posted.

3. If anything, I must confess that I do not quite understand the Australian people and their core values system at this point in time, to be able to make proper sense and achieve a clear understanding as to the actual real reasons underlying this Federal Elections outcome;- other than to say that John Howard has sort of "lost touch" with the Australian people in general and their aspirations and also more or less, over-stayed his welcome period as the Australian PM and MP for Bennenlong than the Australian peoples would allow him as they are getting increasingly "bored", "tired" and "impatient" with his leadership.

4. The other thing that I do learn is that the present Industrial Relations climate in Australia, is a very sensitive and touchy issue for the Australian peoples. The Australian peoples are prepared to throw out 2 of their PMs twice, for tinkering too much in this policy area, even though its reform was deemed neccessary for the strengthening of the Australian Economy by their elected leader/PM.

5. One thing that I do know and learn from this Federal Election is that the local Australians in WA do not think nor respond the same way as their counterparts in the Eastern States, be it with regards to the performance of the John Howard's Liberal Coalition Government or his controversial Work Choice policy.

6. Another thing that I do observe but do not personally quite understand and have some concerns with their (economic) rationality choice, is the Australian people's boldness to opt for a change in its political leadership during this highly volatile financial period and their preference and wilingness to entrust their A$1.1 trillion strong Economy to someone who is refreshing, to their own liking but un-tested, over one who has a proven track record for sound economic management for the Australian Economy but geting old/"stale" with the Australian peoples.

7. Looking forward to learning further from you, please.

8. Thank you.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[tigerGT]

Hey Sunfish.

I do not see how I was contradicting myself at all.

Also I am not blaming anyone for last nights election result. I think Rudd won because his campaigned was aimed at 2 year olds and lots of people out there related to it ( I mean c'mon did you see those ads with a picture and then one word? I myself felt like I was 2 years old).
.
I have 2/3 IP's and im just worried what the ALP win will do. I have a right to be worried and to express it in this forum.

Cheers
George

 

[Ausprop]

"3. If anything, I must confess that I do not quite understand the Australian people and their core values system at this point in time, to be able to make proper sense and achieve a clear understanding as to the actual real reasons underlying this Federal Elections outcome;- other than to say that John Howard has sort of "lost touch" with the Australian people in general and their aspirations and also more or less, over-stayed his welcome period as the Australian PM and MP for Bennenlong than the Australian peoples would allow him as they are getting increasingly "bored", "tired" and "impatient" with his leadership.'

Kenneth I think it can be summed up quite simply, times have been economically great and people have become blase. Most young people have never known tough times nor a labor govt. Also a great slice of the population (any population) are not highly intelligent nor educated. Throw in a very effective scare campaign about work choices and advertise yourself as being more 'green' than the other guy - presto.

It does beggar belief that such a successful govt would be dismissed. I can only suggest that they sold what had already been sold - we all know we are well off so why keeep banging on about the economy? They probably should have focused on their green credentials (I think people still feel that Kyoto is superior to Howards plan even tho it will be the most meaningless treaty ever) and committed to getting out of Iraq.

 

[Ausprop]

This will be a simple test on monday morning,the ASX will follow the way the US market went on friday, i don't see any massive slides in value if there was you would have seen that in the numbers late last week..

will be very interesting indeed. Despite what the polls were saying I am not sure if anybody seriously believed that the public would put Labor in charge: I am expecting a sell off. Question is will I be brave enough to buy against the market?

no change in the market would certainly be reassuring.

 

[Sunfish]

'Tis a beautiful day in the North. I'm going for a ride to the Mingela Pub for lunch. Could I suggest others lighten up and do something similar?

It will all be here tomorrow.

Ciao

 

[mr-ed]

we must remain positive. some upsides are:

- finally someone will do something about this absurd Japanese whaling situation
- hopefully they close down logging and the pulp mill in Tas
- Rudd's Mandarin connection may help bring us closer to China
- I look forward to cheaper petrol and groceries

Ausprop, What do you wipe your **** with???????

 

[NedKelly]

It does beggar belief that such a successful govt would be dismissed.

In reality the government is selected by about 200,000 in a few marginal seats. There was an overall 6% swing towards labor, not a huge amount. As I understand it the same would have happened even if the swing in these marginal seats was only about 3% and the rest had stayed the same. All you need is few numpties to believe the tripe spouted by Captain Earwax and hey presto you have a Labor government.

 

[addbe]

Wow...way too much over-analysis going on here....

HandyAndy says: We have just replaced a cow with a cow, they both give us milk. Is milk good or bad for you? The debate continues....

Think about it...

That's right

I came from another country as well, but i don't see that hugh amount of risk while labor in power. If Labor want to be in government for long, they'd better not to change the country's economy scale. The last thing labor want from the public is the doubt of it's ability to manage economy, because we had so good, for so long and so in our comfort-zone (debt level). we don't want change the good and labor knows that.

Peter worked his way, ALP learned from it. i mean in the end, the price is determind by supply and demand. i don't see the demand is shriking, while the supply is still not keep up.

we are in a rapid changing situation, no matter in australia or in the world. that simply means the smart people will getting rich quicker, and the losser will suffer even more. i can't think of complicated issues, therefore everything in relation to $ i will think only supply and demand. this ketp me going for a good run already. for the sake of argument, just think this: Kevin will be smart enough to keep things in balance.

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Look for the opportunities, guys. Recessions make fortunes for the people who are ready to take advantage of it. If other people are forced to sell, all the better: lower prices for us.
Alex

*********************
Dear Alex,

1. For me, the basic scenario that I have envisaged for investing in Australia has fundamentally "changed" overnight, following this Federal Election outcome.

2. I believe that unlike in the past, it is now safer for me to assume that Australia may "NOT" be so "lucky" this time, to be able to escape relatively un-scatched from the impending fast-spreading world-wide financial crises, under the new ALP Leadership, during the 2008-2009 period, judging from recent RBA's repeated failure/futile attempt to curb the underlying strong inflationary pressures and the housing inflation within a 2-tier housing markets with a blunt and ineffective 0.25% interest rate increase.

3. With a new ALP Team governing Australia with a past track record of an average 6.06% median inflation rate and with a corresponding higher interest rate to be expected from the RBA, in the near future.

4. This together with the present increased high level household debts and a hawkish RBA would suggest that the Australian Economy could be easily affected in the short term.

5. Consequently, I will need to reduce my investing risks and to be more prudent with my own cashflow management by setting aside a bigger cash reserve buffer by immediately reducing my present Australian property portfolio size and its debt/gearing levels to a much lower levels.

6. Thus, with Sydney property market still weak in its reccovery at this point in time (and this is despite a projected cumulative 134,000 housing unit shortage by HIA), it is safer for me to assume that the anticipated strong recovery for the Sydney Property Market in 2009 as projected from the Property Cycle Trends, may not fully materialise or /and be further delayed indefinitely because of the present housing afforability related issues, its present highly over-valued housing price, strong A$ Currency and risks of the Australian Economy being adversely affected together with increasing umeployment rate being projected in Australia over the next few years.

7. For your comments and further discussion, please.

8. Thank you.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[asdf]

Fellow forumites, go out and buy up all the IPs you can afford. Rates will go up, housing unaffordability will continue unabated and we investors will laugh all the way to the bank cos uneducated morons who think the govt will look after their future will look back to yesterday in 10years time and wonder what on earth they did. I am personally very happy that Labor got in cos it means the "stuggling battlers" will now feel no urgency to upskill or improve themselves. It is the start of a great era for us capitalists. Use it to your advantage.

 

[alexlee]

6. Thus, with Sydney property market still weak in its reccovery at this point in time (and this is despite a projected cumulative 134,000 housing unit shortage by HIA), it is safer for me to assume that the anticipated strong recovery for the Sydney Property Market in 2009 as projected from the Property Cycle Trends, may not fully materialise or /and be further delayed indefinitely because of the present housing afforability related issues, its present highly over-valued housing price, strong A$ Currency and risks of the Australian Economy being adversely affected together with increasing umeployment rate being projected in Australia over the next few years.

I still don't see the problem. So you expected a recovery in sydney in 2009, and now it probably won't happen. I didn't think it was going to happen in 2009 anyway. I'm tipping more 2012, 2013, not because of Labor but because the US credit crisis is nowhere near finished. That gives me FIVE WHOLE YEARS to cherry pick properties I want to hold to catch the next boom. Imagine this is 1992 or so. Wouldn't you like to be there and have five years to pick up properties until the start of the boom in 1997 or so?

I'm only a small investor, so I can't buy a couple million in property in one hit. Instead, I can only buy in bite sized chunks of $250k, $300k, maybe two a year. The longer the market stagnates, the longer I have to put together cash and equity to buy properties.

The undersupply of property may not move prices, but it WILL move rents upwards. That will create pent up demand for people to buy as rent goes up but people aren't willing to take the risk to buy because they're afraid of the market. Then, in a few years, when the US credit crisis is over (maybe with a few bank bankruptcies, who knows), and people are more confident, they'll start buying again. Then all the pent up demand that had been slowly building up during the down market will be unleashed and will fuel a new boom. This is what happened in the 90s, and I expect it to happen again.

I just don't see what the problem is if Australia stagnates for a few years. I see it as an opportunity (if you have savings, equity and/or can keep you job: I have the first two and I believe I can keep my job: worst case scenario I try my luck in England, Hong Kong or Japan). I find it harder to buy in a hot market because I can't tell whether the gains are from irrational exuberence or fundamentals, and I get pipped by 'me too' idiots. In a falling market, the fundamentals become more apparent and I get to pick and choose.

I know this: if an intelligent, well read investor like yourself is going to shy away from the market, the 'me too' fools are going to be capitulating. I'm seeing this as the buying opportunity (stretched over a few years) that's going to make my fortune in the next cycle.
Alex

 

[alexlee]

Fellow forumites, go out and buy up all the IPs you can afford. Rates will go up, housing unaffordability will continue unabated and we investors will laugh all the way to the bank cos uneducated morons who think the govt will look after their future will look back to yesterday in 10years time and wonder what on earth they did. I am personally very happy that Labor got in cos it means the "stuggling battlers" will now feel no urgency to upskill or improve themselves. It is the start of a great era for us capitalists. Use it to your advantage.

Hear hear. Buy when the crowd is panicking. Basic tenet, people! I'm not going to suddenly bring my LVR to 100% or anything (though I will be borrowing effective 105% on new IPs), but the needle on my investment dial just perked towards 'buy'.
Alex

 

[feihong]

After reading all the posts, I don't think there will be a concensus reached. It's all speculative as to what will happen to the future, only time will tell.

Personally, I'm of opinionated that Labor government may not be as detrimental to the economy as suggested by some forumites here. If Kevin is as "Chinese" as most ppl believe, then he might use Singapore and China as role model and invest heavily in infrastructures. This may mean building up a huge debt but at the same time the capacity constraint to productivity is debottlenecked. On the economy front, we are lucky that Peter Costello will still be our Opposition Leader and will still be able to offer advices on economy management (and Labor only knows too well that he is the man that kept Australia strong).

Just my 2 cents

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Fellow forumites, go out and buy up all the IPs you can afford.

++++++++++

Hi asdf

1. I have 2 properties which I will be selling off soon.

2. If you are truly interested, please email me directly at [email protected].

3. Thank you.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[Tizzy]

Onwards and upwards, Australian people have decided what they want and I am just one vote among many that's very happy today.

And, to the forumite that claimed Rudd won office because he appealed to a "two year old mentality" , don't be so patronising (you twerp!), the voters in this country are very well informed.

I'm not worried about my property and not expecting to lose a damm thing. I'll be scanning the for sale ads to pick my next buy as I always have.

Anyone would think Labour supporters don't invest in property !! Give me a break.

 

[landlubber]

Concentrate on your investing & forget this stuff!

The wonder of our Aussie electoral system is that it is so beautifully engineered and "balanced". When you see it in action, like the last 24 hours, you actually gotta respect whoever designed it.

Just a few % swing changes government EITHER WAY....big time !!

To me, this ensures that neither party can afford to "upset" many voters, or they get the proverbial "cricket bat to the head".

Concentrate on your investing. Things won't be much different whoever is in "power". Leave the hot air in Canberra.

LL

 

[mystery]

Why do some property investors and many in this thread only focus on the immediate timeframe, ... surely when you bought it was for the long term. We won't always have good times, ..... you enjoy the good periods and ride out the lows.

Investments have been following this pattern for centuries, .. Take property or the stockmarket, .... you WILL get troughs and peaks, but as a few have said, .. if you have bought well and are prepared to be patient then their are rewards to be had.

I have several IP's and I won't be selling and like Alex, .. I will be keeping a close eye out for opportunities.

Maybe many of the younger investors have only really seen prosperous times and fall into a screaming heap when the first sign of tougher times appear on the horizon. You will learn much more from tough times than you ever will if we had a permanent property boom.

Take on the challange ....

Martin

 

[Kennethkohsg]

If Kevin is as "Chinese" as most ppl believe, then he might use Singapore and China as role model and invest heavily in infrastructures. This may mean building up a huge debt but at the same time the capacity constraint to productivity is debottlenecked. /QUOTE]
&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
Hiya FeiHong

1. Isn't this what the ALP WA State Government is presently trying to do now?.... rolling out its projects at a time when WA is already suffering from a critical skills shortage, and further intensifying this problem by trying to compete with the local housing market industry for the limited trade people/skilled labour, thereby driving up the labour and housing construction costs unneccessarily to unreasonably high and unrealistic levels during full employment time!

2. In Singapore, and only during recession times, will its Govt try to prime-start the local economy and help to create additional local employment opportunities for its workers who have been unfortunately retrenched en-masse during the recession, by launching off its own major government infrastructural Projects, even to the extent of incurring a Budget Deficit where neccessary.

3. It does not deliberately seek to launch off its major Government's infrastructual Projects during an economic boom time when there is full employment and especially when there is already a critical shortage for skilled labour, as what the ALP WA State Government is presently seen to be doing.

4. Consequently, most of the major government-initiated infrastructural projects in Singapore are normally completed cost-effectively and well with its budgetted costs as well as on time or well-ahead of its scheduled completion deadline and with many un-employed workers feeling gratified to their govt for coming to help them in times of needs.

5. On the other hand, what I see in WA, such as the new southern Perth-Rockingham-Mandurah Railway Lines Project, is works delays and delayed work completion after its initial officially scheduled completion deadline as well as repeated huge budget costs blow-outs for the Project completion and "unhappy" union workers and the train drivers seeking for higher pay for themselves.


Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[tigerGT]

NEWS FLASH JUST IN:

Peter Costello has just announced he will not be running as deputy leader and will not accept this poition. He will stand down to chase commercial interests and spend more time with Family...

This is the end of an Era