Labor in office, what will happened to property investment?

[Kennethkohsg]

As I say in other post: Costtelo would never become PM because he has no balls to stand up to apply for the job. He has only himself to blame.

***************
Dear TheAnalyst,

1. I think differently from you with respect to Peter Costello just as many other Australians will have different opinions/thoughts about him too, from us.

2. I do not think Peter Costello is "power- crazy" nor does he want to openly "insist" that he must be made the next Liberal Party Chief or/and next Australian PM, as some highly ambitious members are.

3. Nonetheless, I personally believe that Peter Costello is a highly competent Treasurer who has jointly managed the Australian Economy excellently in conjunction with the ex-RBA Chairman, Ian MacFarlance. Both these 2 men have made Australia very proud by putting Australia as an world-class example of economic management excellence that have helped to draw international recognition world-wide, both from far and from near.

4. Personally, I have high regards for these 2 great Australian personalities and I do see them as the key pillars behind the economic success story for Australia over the last 11 years. These are men of great stature, out to serve the Nation but basically still personable and humble in their own approach.

5. I personally believe Peter Costello would be a happier man for himself and for his family, serving as an MP for Higgins. He needs to move on, in his own private life, having contributed much to Australia in the past and having well-discharged his duties excellently and fully to the best of his own abilities.

6. As you would probably agree with me, Peter Costello is, in fact, too honest and too nice a person to be an truly effective "scheming" and a "dirty" politican for Australia.


Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[alexlee]

Agreed. I actually agree with 90% of what you say - it may not seem that way because I only usually pipe up only when I disagree. Yes - busts can be healthy - gets rid of all the crap assets and paves the way for new growth.

If it reverts to the mean then it may be a slow process - may even be flat in nominal terms while inflation picks up.

Things don't always have to revert to the mean though - something fundamental may have changed which means it is now pemanently priced differently. I however don't see anything really compelling in property though that tells me this is the case.

You and I agree on a lot of the technical aspects, because that's just textbook stuff. We disagree mainly on how we think humans will behave, and that's NOT in any textbook.

Yes, it can be a very slow process. In the current situation, I would not be surprised if it took 5-10 years of price stagnation/falls (though I still believe rent will keep going up) before we see another boom. So what? The longer it takes, the more time there is for 'ordinary' investors to panic and sell (and people to NOT buy), creating both better buys and more pent up demand for when the boom strikes again. Ask Sunfish how long it took for gold to have its day in the sun again.

You and I also disagree on the fundamentals. I think the fundamentals of property are still good because of long term economic growth, population growth and inevitable decreased expectations (people moving into smaller places and more high density living), making any property I buy (which doesn't move) more valuable in the future. You do not. I don't think the last 7-10 years of growth is an aberration or a sign that property is now 'priced differently'. I think it's a combination of pent up demand built up during the early 90s and excess liquidity, which we will slowly work through in the coming period.
Alex

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Yes, writing too much and reading too little. A boring combination.

***************
Dear Sunfish,

1. Sorry that I am here to learn how to improve on my own investing through exchange of views, and not here to "entertain" you or the other members. Sorry that you did not pay me to write in this forum.

2. Sorry that I have "bored" you with my long posts.

3. Are there some good reading materials that you wish to recommend me to read in order to improve on my investing success? Please feel free to recommend and I will give it my due considerations.

4. Thank you.


Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Have you worked out what reversion to the mean would actually mean for prices in Australian cities? Take a 30 year time series (in real dollars) and put a mean through it. From where we are now to where the mean is looks like a nasty, nasty drop.

******************
Dear YM,

Please share with us your relevant supporting data and visual charts/graph for further discussion.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[Tim]

***************
Dear Sunfish,

1. Sorry that I am here to learn how to improve on my own investing through exchange of views, and not here to "entertain" you or the other members. Sorry that you did not pay me to write in this forum.

2. Sorry that I have "bored" you with my long posts.

3. Are there some good reading materials that you wish to recommend me to read in order to improve on my investing success? Please feel free to recommend and I will give it my due considerations.

4. Thank you.


Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

Ken,

I believe your posts lately have become more aggressive and defensive (this is just an observation and not a criticsim) - I wondered if you agree with this and if so, if you have thought about what might be happening for this to occur, and if you don't beleive your posts are more aggressive/defensive, then why this is the case.

Make sure you respond with a reply that is NOT aggressive or defensive.

Tim

 

[natmarie73]

It was enough to con a bunch of ill informed and egocentric Gen XYs and BBs....

But I thought you were a Liberal supporter.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

But I thought you were a Liberal supporter.

I am for small govt Nat. A situation that requires an electorate who accept more responsibility for earning the money required to consume the goods and services they want.

Unfortunately, most who support large govt believe in magic, in that they think they will get something for nothing.

As for ignorance, ask your average 20 something swinging voter what they know about peak oil or running or starting a small business, and it'll be less than what they know about global warming as taught by commercial television.

As always, I hold to this:

"Capitalism is the uneven distribution of wealth and communism the even distribution of poverty."

 

[wylie]

As for ignorance, ask your average 20 something swinging voter what they know about peak oil or running or starting a small business, and it'll be less than what they know about global warming as taught by commercial television. "

I would think most of the population would not have a clue about peak oil or running or starting a small business. I certainly could not tell you much about either. But I don't think that I need to understand how the economy is run to vote. It is just one of many factors that influence which party I vote for.

I would think many people are concerned with their hip pocket and I hate to think that people are influenced to vote for a government because it might mean they get an extra $20 in their pocket, but I fear it is so for lots of people.

Wylie

 

[WinstonWolfe]

I would think many people are concerned with their hip pocket and I hate to think that people are influenced to vote for a government because it might mean they get an extra $20 in their pocket, but I fear it is so for lots of people.

Wylie

Yes, a lot of people probably do vote by considering what is in it for them....this year.

Labor were voted in in the 80s on the basis of their enviro policy which very much included not building the Wolfdene Dam in SE Qld.

Now SE Qld has serious water reservoir issues because of that.

 

[Francesco]

Ken,

I believe your posts lately have become more aggressive and defensive (this is just an observation and not a criticsim) - I wondered if you agree with this and if so, if you have thought about what might be happening for this to occur, and if you don't beleive your posts are more aggressive/defensive, then why this is the case.

Make sure you respond with a reply that is NOT aggressive or defensive.

Tim

Noun 1. criticism - disapproval expressed by pointing out faults or shortcomings; "the senator received severe criticism from his opponent"

F

 

[IndexFund]

I hope this new election makes the houses more affordable and you people who have more than 2-3 IP will be forced to sell for cheap so as to give other people a a bloody chance at actually owning a property and not renting!

 

[BoatBoy]

I hope this new election makes the houses more affordable and you people who have more than 2-3 IP will be forced to sell for cheap so as to give other people a a bloody chance at actually owning a property and not renting!

What makes you think we would be forced to sell just because houses lose a bit of Val.?

What makes you think Krudd will have an affect on affordability?

I saw no magic wand.

Dave

 

[Kennethkohsg]

Given that they were appointed by the Libs and they raised rates right before the election, I'd say they're NOT exactly feeling beholden to the Liberal Party.

*******************
AlexLee,

1. My question was who exactly does the RBA directly report to and how is the RBA held accountable for the economic consequences arising out from its Board's decision-making outcome?

2. Being an independant RBA, I do not expect the RBA to stay "beholden" to the Liberals. Even if they are, ( which I do not personally think so at this junction), the RBA will still have to act and appear as if they are not, in order to act professionally as an independant Board.

3. Consequently, with a change of the ruling Government after this Federal Elections, does this neccessarily mean that a new RBA Board and a RBA Chairman needs to be re-appointed by the new incoming PM on the recommendation of the new incoming ALP Treasurer?

4. Looking forward to learning from you further, please.

5. Thank you.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[natedog]

Hi All,
What does it matter which party is in power....i dont know much about politics but i am pretty sure that over the last century we have had labor and liberal have thier stints at running the country.

i dont have the stats, but havent property prices on average increased 7+% per year over that time....even through the world wars...deppression, recessions, oil crisis's, high interest rates, low interest rates, tight banks, loose banks, high inflation, low inflation, stock market crashes, high unemployment, low unemployment, rental shortages, gluts etc.....

As long as population is growing and demand outstrips supply, property should be a safe investment class...

after all everyone needs a roof over thier heads

 

[Nathan]

Originally Posted by IndexFund
I hope this new election makes the houses more affordable and you people who have more than 2-3 IP will be forced to sell for cheap so as to give other people a a bloody chance at actually owning a property and not renting!

this is the biggest load of SH1T i have ever heard, man im sick of these posts and really disappointed with the swing of the average aussie. at end of the day we are a democratic society. i am saddend by the way people have voted and led to belive that they are now better off. the 20 somethings are in for rudd coz he is fresh and there thoughts on economy are what we have not what was. i am only 22 as it is and i feel this is what has pressured theswing along with people forgetting the pst and think about in the moment, and pointing blame for their current situation.

ok i have vented from this,

indexed fund, this is the dumbest thing i have heard anyone say. really your telling everyone on here you want them to go bust because your poor enough not to afford a property. mate seriously grow up and accept some responsibilty for why you havent got anything!

serious, as i said im 22 and have several properties accumulated from late 03, and for you to say that i am p!ssed.

keep reading doom and i hope to see you after the nexty boom telling me that the skys falling in still with nothing.

your sum of results are no one elses fault but yours, you have control of yurself, if you cant make it its not mine or anyone elses fault.

also goodluck with rudd, in reverse to your comment again:

Originally Posted by IndexFund
I hope this new election makes the houses more affordable and you people who have more than 2-3 IP will be forced to sell for cheap so as to give other people a a bloody chance at actually owning a property and not renting!

I HOPE WITH YOU VOTING RUDD YOU LOOSE YOUR JOB AND YUR RENTS GO UP!

goodnight all have fun replying to this post

Nath

 

[Kennethkohsg]

You're kidding me, right? The S&L crisis in the US was in full swing around 1990.
Alex[/QUOTE]
***************************
Dear Alex,

1. The S&L Crisis in the US officially exploded in 1985. It was subsequently being resolved in 1990, with a US$150 bail-out provided by the Amercian Federal Reserve. How was Australia then, being adversely affected by this particular S&L Crisis incident?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6958091.stm

2. I also doubt that the 1987 Stock Market Crash in the US, is the actual reason that would have directly caused Australia to increase its interest rate to 18% to 1989 then too?

3. Please share with us what exactly happened in Australia then and how the Australian interest rate has to be increased to 18% in 1989, only to be followed subsequently by the 1991 Recession, "which Australia needs to have"?

4. Looking forward to learning from you further, please.

5. Thank you.

Cheers,
Kenneth KOH

 

[natedog]

I hope this new election makes the houses more affordable and you people who have more than 2-3 IP will be forced to sell for cheap so as to give other people a a bloody chance at actually owning a property and not renting!

I dont beleive that it is property investors who are stopping people who are renting from "affording" a home.

Peoples life and financial "choices" are what determines what they achieve.

i believe everyone gets what they deserve, based on the choices they make, if you rent and you cant afford a home....change your behaviour, save more, buy a little further out than is ideal...just dont whinge and moan and take no action and blame someone else....... we make our own luck in the lucky country,

Enough raving

 

[jingo]

Teaching the Young Guns to write properly.

Originally Posted by IndexFund
I hope this new election makes the houses more affordable and you people who have more than 2-3 IP will be forced to sell for cheap so as to give other people a a bloody chance at actually owning a property and not renting!

this is the biggest load of SH1T i have ever heard, man im sick of these posts and really disappointed with the swing of the average aussie. at end of the day we are a democratic society. i am saddend by the way people have voted and led to belive that they are now better off. the 20 somethings are in for rudd coz he is fresh and there thoughts on economy are what we have not what was. i am only 22 as it is and i feel this is what has pressured theswing along with people forgetting the pst and think about in the moment, and pointing blame for their current situation.

ok i have vented from this,

indexed fund, this is the dumbest thing i have heard anyone say. really your telling everyone on here you want them to go bust because your poor enough not to afford a property. mate seriously grow up and accept some responsibilty for why you havent got anything!

serious, as i said im 22 and have several properties accumulated from late 03, and for you to say that i am p!ssed.

keep reading doom and i hope to see you after the nexty boom telling me that the skys falling in still with nothing.

your sum of results are no one elses fault but yours, you have control of yurself, if you cant make it its not mine or anyone elses fault.

also goodluck with rudd, in reverse to your comment again:

Originally Posted by IndexFund
I hope this new election makes the houses more affordable and you people who have more than 2-3 IP will be forced to sell for cheap so as to give other people a a bloody chance at actually owning a property and not renting!

I HOPE WITH YOU VOTING RUDD YOU LOOSE YOUR JOB AND YUR RENTS GO UP!

goodnight all have fun replying to this post

Nath

Hi Nathan,

I shall preface this by stating that I voted for the Liberal party.

However, I do hope that through his 'Education Revolution' Rudd manages to teach those who are currently at school to write properly.

Nathan, where have the capital letters, commas, correct spelling and sentence structure disappeared to? From reading the posts of those in their 20's it would seem that the Liberal government forgot to incorporate written expression into the curriculum!


Regards Jason.

 

[Nathan]

hahaha

Thanks for the reply. My keyboard is wireless and the batteries are low. Within saying this i am having difficulty getting all the text right, i need to purchase a hard wired keyboard as i am sick of this. I did not read through what i wrote to spell check it. I have this time though...

Good to see us liberals have a good sence of humour and not "stale" lol.

 

[Ausprop]

However, I do hope that through his 'Education Revolution' Rudd manages to teach those who are currently at school to write properly.

pfff... a bunch of PCs that will be landfill in a years time.