What does he have to do when he loses the second bet?
Left wing political group orchestrating home buyers strike...
- Thread starter GoingDHfast
- Start date
What does he have to do when he loses the second bet?
Shut the hell up would be enough.
if we have stagflationf or the next ten years that would still not come to fruitition. i always like to to bet on the theft of money, not the giving.
the problem with Keenie's argument was that he wasn't specific. house prices "falling" 40% will definitely NOT happen, but house prices may be 40% more affordable if we have no housing sector growth yet continue to have wage growth.
but then, that last comment is an oxymoron anyway - we all know what happens when people have more disposable income, they buy more, banks lend more ... and away we go again.
i'm having a hard time seeing how this 40% can come to be.
Yes, from my reading of the reporting at the time, he said 20% lower in 12 months, which they weren't.
Yes, correct
I stand corrected. You are quite right. I should have said a 20% drop, which they did not, rather than a 40% drop - which still has many years to run yet.
I must have missed that - had you on 'ignore' and only recently started reading your posts again when you started being more sensible
Actually i don't think that is the case at all. I certainly dont have much time for the guy's opinion but anything is possible. Personally i think he is an egotistical maniac, who has a political agenda, struggles to understand why reality doesnt line up with theory he has studied and is trying to drive it through sensationalism in the media
It has been pointed out here several times he made the call of 40% over 10-15years, yet i cant for the life of me recall him mentioning the time frame in an interview for the first few years he was saying it it was all about 40% drops - although it may have been selective editing by the media in his defence.
Then when his short term prediction proves to be wrong he makes up excuses about first home buyer grants preventing it. LOL, Are you trying to tell me a Leftie Economics professor couldnt foresee Govt intervention in a downturn!?!
So now he is advocating a home buyers strike, still looking for something so he can say he was right for once.
Any investor is taking risks(anyone who isnt is too, just less obvious to them), if you dont plan for market movements either way, you are either going to be lucky and make it big, or fall hard. Hopefully most have contingencies in place for the opposite of what they think will happen, and if they don't, the coin toss will catch them out some day I'd say.
we're talking about Steven Keen here, not the permabears on the forum....oh, wait...
is this a thought or a observation?
i'm not taking the pish here - care to share an example? i'm just having a hard time seeing it.
on a side note, who wouldn't be fearful of a serious property correction? if they aren't they're either not managing their risk properly or they're just plain masochistic.
I cant give an example because theres thousands of posts all over the forum in the same vein. Denial, put down of Keen, hubris, etc....all displaying an underlying unspoken fear of a - as i said - a serious property price correction.
It reminds me a bit of the gays reaction to homophobia "what are you scared of?"
It reminds me a bit of the gays reaction to homophobia "what are you scared of?"
For the record I agree. I think a 40% correction in nominal terms Australia wide is extremely unlikely. I think a more likely scenario would be 15-20% off nominal capital city prices (some will drop more, some less) and further years of lower growth than inflation leading to a drop in the vicinity of 30% (in real terms) over 5+ years.
I don't necessarily agree with everything Keen says, but I find it unreasonable for users on here to continue misquoting/misrepresenting his position.
Can you link where you read this?
My opinion over the last 24 months hasn't changed and neither has my posting style.had you on 'ignore' and only recently started reading your posts again when you started being more sensible
Or maybe we think it's complete crap?
Is the 30% off in real terms inclusive of the conservative 15-20% capital gains made by property owners since Keen's original prediction, or from now?
i forget Melbourne is the only city in the country.
If a buyers' strike leads to a drop in house prices and there is upward pressure on rents, the market would present with a lot of high quality positive cashflow properties. In addition, my exisiting IPs would go from negative cashflow to positive cashflow.
Even if negative gearing were abolished (highly unlikely), this could be a very profitable opportunity for savy investors. Unfortunately, the buyers' strike will likely come to nothing.
Even if negative gearing were abolished (highly unlikely), this could be a very profitable opportunity for savy investors. Unfortunately, the buyers' strike will likely come to nothing.
So even after looking up the figures for yourself you still get it wrong in the following post...
"When the pair went head-to-head early last year on the future of housing prices, Keen stuck to his prediction of a 20 per cent drop by 2013 and 40 per cent by 2018 to 2023."
Now I'm not saying Keen will be right or wrong, but YOUR claim that KEEN was wrong about the 20% fall is wrong.
Unbelievable.
You wonder why I get frustrated with your jabs at Keen when you can't even get the facts straight
Steve Keen - hopelessly wrong.
Not correct.
When Keen sold his home in 2008, just before the boom, he said this...
Are you claiming that when he said a 'few years' he meant 15 years?
A 'few years' might mean 15 years if we were talking about, say, the history of settlement in Australia, or the rule of the Roman empire.
However, most people pay off a mortgage in less than 25 years. Therefore 15 years is not 'a few' years in the context of a mortgage, or even in the context of a persons lifetime.
Is is quite dishonest to suggest that Keen meant 15 years in this context. A 'few years' of a mortgage would be 3-4 years for most people. If Keen meant 15 years then he should have said 15 years. Any sensible person would not have taken his statement of a 'few years' to mean 15 years.
Immediately following Keen's 40% crash prediction (and the sale of his home), house prices rose by 20-30%. Even if we assume Keen really did mean 15 years when he said a 'few years', he now needs a crash of more than 50% to be right.
Keen was hopelessly wrong about house prices, it's as simple as that. He was also wrong about interest rates dropping to zero, wrong about double digit unemployment, and wrong about the severe recession that he predicted.
Keen was interviewed in the media regularly during 2008 telling us about the imminent severe recession, mass unemployment, ZIRP and 40% house price crash. He thought these events were going to happen shortly, a result of the economic downturn that was just beginning at that time.
Why would he bother showing up in the media every night scaremongering about severe recessions and huge house price crashes unless he thought they were going to happen during that cycle. It's ridiculous to suggest he thought these events were 15 years away. He didn't - he thought they were imminent.
Not correct.
When Keen sold his home in 2008, just before the boom, he said this...
Are you claiming that when he said a 'few years' he meant 15 years?
A 'few years' might mean 15 years if we were talking about, say, the history of settlement in Australia, or the rule of the Roman empire.
However, most people pay off a mortgage in less than 25 years. Therefore 15 years is not 'a few' years in the context of a mortgage, or even in the context of a persons lifetime.
Is is quite dishonest to suggest that Keen meant 15 years in this context. A 'few years' of a mortgage would be 3-4 years for most people. If Keen meant 15 years then he should have said 15 years. Any sensible person would not have taken his statement of a 'few years' to mean 15 years.
Immediately following Keen's 40% crash prediction (and the sale of his home), house prices rose by 20-30%. Even if we assume Keen really did mean 15 years when he said a 'few years', he now needs a crash of more than 50% to be right.
Keen was hopelessly wrong about house prices, it's as simple as that. He was also wrong about interest rates dropping to zero, wrong about double digit unemployment, and wrong about the severe recession that he predicted.
Keen was interviewed in the media regularly during 2008 telling us about the imminent severe recession, mass unemployment, ZIRP and 40% house price crash. He thought these events were going to happen shortly, a result of the economic downturn that was just beginning at that time.
Why would he bother showing up in the media every night scaremongering about severe recessions and huge house price crashes unless he thought they were going to happen during that cycle. It's ridiculous to suggest he thought these events were 15 years away. He didn't - he thought they were imminent.
Dont you just love D&G'ers. Your point about a required 50% now is so relevent when it comes to following the advice of such tossers.
However here is something that many people dont realise. Keens yapping is profitable to Keen. Think about it, he sells his apartment which gives him 'credibility'. So he has possibly incurred a loss in this asset relative to price movements. However how much money has he made personally from 'guest appearments, writing articles, royalties on books current and future' ect etc.
So things are probably ok for Keen, just not for the people who listen to him.
I looked at quite a few reports (all of which seem to have variations on the theme) and where I got the 20% fall was from:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2010/s2874266.htm
and here:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/02/16/2821232.htm?site=canberra