Hi all,
I found this interesting and also scary
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a9Xuyw9l3Y
Happy investing
I found this interesting and also scary
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a9Xuyw9l3Y
Happy investing
living in a bubble
- Thread starter scha9799
- Start date
hmmm
normally I ignore foreign 'experts' and their articles are usually full of fluff
but this guy has credibility and his article is quite well written out,
http://www.news.com.au/finance/real...ssie-home-prices/story-fndba8uq-1226816510923
are we really in for a crash???
obviously 50% wont happen, but a substancial drop?!?!!?
im a bit worried to be honest
normally I ignore foreign 'experts' and their articles are usually full of fluff
but this guy has credibility and his article is quite well written out,
http://www.news.com.au/finance/real...ssie-home-prices/story-fndba8uq-1226816510923
are we really in for a crash???
obviously 50% wont happen, but a substancial drop?!?!!?
im a bit worried to be honest
Not sure why people are given so much credit for predicting the global financial crisis.
I knew that coming in 2006 and predicted the subprime crisis too. And so did a lot of people I know.
Should we all start coming out to make predictions about the future of demographers and economist employment market too?
I knew that coming in 2006 and predicted the subprime crisis too. And so did a lot of people I know.
Should we all start coming out to make predictions about the future of demographers and economist employment market too?
So what are your forecasts moving forward?
Harry S Dent has been (correctly) forecasting the direction of the economy since mid 1990s. His theory on peak spending demographics makes sense, and has forecasted the general direction and timing correctly. However, he tends to sensationalise the peaks and troughs, such as predicting the Dow will peak at 40,000 in 2007.
John Paulson made a cool $3.7 billion in 2008 betting against sub prime. I'm guessing you had a spectacular few years too?
In the Australian edition of "The great crash ahead", Dent has predicted the following:
"We see Australia's stock market crashing 50%-60% and your housing market declining similarly by 40% to 55% between early 2013 and early 2015"
It is early 2014 now and the house proces has gone up by 10%. So it has to crash by 45%-59%
"We see Australia's stock market crashing 50%-60% and your housing market declining similarly by 40% to 55% between early 2013 and early 2015"
It is early 2014 now and the house proces has gone up by 10%. So it has to crash by 45%-59%
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one obvious flaw with his logic is the cause of increased Chinese investment in Australia .
It's not because they fear a crash over there .
two reasons .
There are restrictions to how many properties someone can own over there. My understanding is they can only own one investment property in China. This is a little publisised reason.
People who were previously doing normal business over there ( ie that's how the system worked ... ) are now seen to be corrupt . They want to get some of that money out now , before they are accused of corruption and can't .
Cliff
It's not because they fear a crash over there .
two reasons .
There are restrictions to how many properties someone can own over there. My understanding is they can only own one investment property in China. This is a little publisised reason.
People who were previously doing normal business over there ( ie that's how the system worked ... ) are now seen to be corrupt . They want to get some of that money out now , before they are accused of corruption and can't .
Cliff
Some balance
Thanks for sharing that link.
Yes, Dent is out to market his new book as others have mentioned in another thread. I have ordered it as I find demographics very interesting and also useful to identify trends. I also like to read other views, no matter how bearish and against our bias they may be.
His scare mongering on Aussie property values may be excessive by way of magnitude, however to consider that what he saying is same old, same old and merely marketing his book and upcoming tour may be a little short sighted.
I mentioned in another thread that China (and it's property market) is the big canary. If indeed it is a bubble that (looks like it) will burst at some point due to already high vacancy of brand new product and the income multiples to purchase, then this will affect commodity prices here and by inference unemployment. It may also affect our banks through global financial market shake-up and lending may tighten again............this will affect borrowing capacity and ultimately buying capacity and property values.
If the S&P an Dow also correct significantly, this will also likely affect the ASX market here. Property sentiment will soften.
Don't think that we won't necessarily see another dip to prices here. I don't think it will be of the 40-50 % magnitude he is purporting, however anything is possible.
Here is a balanced view and short discussion on his new book (The Demographic Cliff).
http://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowi...ave-they-missed-something-20140128-31jaz.html
BTW, on the short lead in to his new book that I have read, he still considers Australia to be well poised to recover from any further fall-out he is proposing, just not in the same unscathed way we came out of the GFC.
I'm looking forward to reading his book.
Thanks for sharing that link.
Yes, Dent is out to market his new book as others have mentioned in another thread. I have ordered it as I find demographics very interesting and also useful to identify trends. I also like to read other views, no matter how bearish and against our bias they may be.
His scare mongering on Aussie property values may be excessive by way of magnitude, however to consider that what he saying is same old, same old and merely marketing his book and upcoming tour may be a little short sighted.
I mentioned in another thread that China (and it's property market) is the big canary. If indeed it is a bubble that (looks like it) will burst at some point due to already high vacancy of brand new product and the income multiples to purchase, then this will affect commodity prices here and by inference unemployment. It may also affect our banks through global financial market shake-up and lending may tighten again............this will affect borrowing capacity and ultimately buying capacity and property values.
If the S&P an Dow also correct significantly, this will also likely affect the ASX market here. Property sentiment will soften.
Don't think that we won't necessarily see another dip to prices here. I don't think it will be of the 40-50 % magnitude he is purporting, however anything is possible.
Here is a balanced view and short discussion on his new book (The Demographic Cliff).
http://www.smh.com.au/money/borrowi...ave-they-missed-something-20140128-31jaz.html
BTW, on the short lead in to his new book that I have read, he still considers Australia to be well poised to recover from any further fall-out he is proposing, just not in the same unscathed way we came out of the GFC.
I'm looking forward to reading his book.
Not as spectacular since I was only 21 and didn't have the benefit of contacts, networks, experience or capital. Did you know having capital goes a long way to making money?
Ask me the same question at 2040 when I'd be around the same age John was, and I'll try answer that again. Hopefully a little bit more spectacular by then.
But anyone in finance could probably tell you subprime writing was on the wall in 2006. The difference would be knowing the magnitude of its implications, and having the ability (read, capital and networks) to do anything about it.
1bil leaving hong kong shores every month with a good dose of that headed to Perth, Melb and Syd.
I know people leaving hk with 50k plus in suitcases.
I know people leaving hk with 50k plus in suitcases.
I think it's 4 properties that's the limit. but alot of rich people get second or third fake identities. which allows them to get more properties. eg. with 3 ids you can have 12. some lady had 54 properties...
