Long-Term Global Inflation (10+ Years)

Hi All

I'm keen to hear what some of the investors here that have seen the cycles come and go think about the long term rate of inflation.

With the US Fed looking down the barrel of QE3, we are seeing the world being flushed with massive amounts of cash. This cash has to go somewhere right? And once the cash is in the system, it's difficult to remove.

So what are peoples thoughts on exposure to long term assets that tend to rise with inflation (housing, resources etc) and will this increased rate of global inflation curb the current rate of household saving / de-leveraging that we are currently seeing.

Or will we see all out central bank war on the inflation genie - ie global sky high interest rates stalling growth? I fear that the right move when it hit the fan in 2007 would have been to let nature take it's course and have banks and potentially certain governments fail. Instead now we seem to be past the point of no return as the problems will have been compounded should we let it all fail at once.

Keen to hear other people's thoughts??
 
I simply think that Australia is a strong country and well placed to weather financial storms. We've been through this type of thing before and I have learned that we always recover from that. Simple. It goes up, it comes down, then repeats. We tend to over-complicate things here.

We must expect this and I'm suprised so few investors actually accept this as common knowledge. We've all read the books that tell us, and been through it ourselfes before but just seem to throw it all out the window at the first sign of trouble and forget anything we may have learned previously.

The Banks have quite a bit of exposure to the market themselfes when you think about it.. (yes, pun intended, but it a nice way :) ) And I doubt they would let the economy sliup down the drain. They're able to pull a few strings when need be you know. The Banks want you to buy property. You to sell it at a higher price to someone else. Someone else to borrow the higher amount from them, and then you to also take on more debt with them. This erodes profits when the housing market goes down the tubes. Lucky it's never happened here before and the Banks are wise to this and I doubt we will see anything like the US has in Australia.
 
The inflation formula is actually Money Supply Growth X Velocity of Money. Currently, there is no velocity, the banks are sitting on cash, not lending it out.

The central bankers believe that as velocity picks up they will be able to pull money back out of the system. Do you believe that?
 
The inflation formula is actually Money Supply Growth X Velocity of Money. Currently, there is no velocity, the banks are sitting on cash, not lending it out.

The central bankers believe that as velocity picks up they will be able to pull money back out of the system. Do you believe that?

i'm glad someone out there is aware of how inflation happens at a grass-roots level. so many people try to use multiples of Mx and come away with jargon that no-one understands.

kudos.

and no, i don't believe they will be able to pull money out of the system=, because it went into the hands of private corporations, not into things like infrastructure and the public purse.
 
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U.S. monetary base has nearly tripled since 07, while the money supply has gone sideways. Some say banks aren't lending, some say demand is flat. With so much potential to create cheap money in the U.S. (banks can lend upto ten times base currency), they'll eventually force the economy into action & then it'll be all they can do to keep a lid on inflation.
 
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This might upset you Aaron because I am going to talk Mx...

Also here in Australia because rather than fractional reserve banking we rely more on capital reserve requirements amoung our lenders if banks have an erosion in there capital it has a levered effect on their ability to take deposits and lend money.

The government guarantee works to allow them to raise funding but alsways constrained by the required capital provisioning under Australian regulations.

They may have taken deposits and be able to raise copious amounts of them offshore but if their capital is eroded by say 20% due to bad debts they have to go to the market for fresh capital (like in 2008, which in fairness was to strengthen their balance sheet rather than repair them) or reduce their deposit liabilities basically giving money back to depositors which means paring back or selling their loan assets, and then we get a reducing M3.

This is how credit may get crunched in this country as it has in others. Without credit house prices while a big issue are only the tip of the iceberg for Australia, business investment is crunched and the whole system gets in trouble.

As sunfish points out the velocity / M3 in existance drops and so does business investment employment and rather than inflation we could end up with deflation even if our base money supply grows, base money is levered so massively in this country you could double base and with a ratio in line with many other nations have a shrinking M3.

M3 is the key to inflation and unfortunately guaranteeing bank deposits and other measures from mour federal government do not make the system bulletproff, indeed they stop the market assessing where capital should go allowing a situation that banks could take on dodgy loan assets and down the line erode their capital significantly.
 
graph2.gif


U.S. monetary base has nearly tripled since 07, while the money supply has gone sideways. Some say banks aren't lending, some say demand is flat. With so much potential to create cheap money in the U.S. (banks can lend upto ten times base currency), they'll eventually force the economy into action & then it'll be all they can do to keep a lid on inflation.

You do realise that the Federal Reserve hasn't published M3 for a long time?
 
Sure, the chart is for M2. I have seen guestimates on M3 which have it currently in deflation despite the huge increase in base currency. Do you buy that idea Aaron?
You do realise that the Federal Reserve hasn't published M3 for a long time?
 
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