Market outlook in Canberra

[geoffw]

Are you quite sure you don't want to buy in North Lyneham?

I think I will be buying elsewhere for the next property just because I have all my exposure in Canberra. So to speak.

 

[Jamie M]

Are you quite sure you don't want to buy in North Lyneham?

I think I will be buying elsewhere for the next property just because I have all my exposure in Canberra. So to speak.

haha - thought you might ask

It's a good deal. I'm sure it will be snapped up soon.

Cheers

Jamie

 

[bumskins]

Canberra will be fine.

The oversupply of OTP stock coupled with the change of govt. and APS cuts has caused a little bit of uncertainty but people are starting to buy again (from what I can see).

Well its all still speculative at the moment as the major job losses haven't happened yet.

One issue is the Coalition were planning on 12,000 departures from natural attrition by June 2014.

From the numbers already published, its very apparent that natural attrition alone won't work.
The Government will be forced to use redundancies to cull numbers, but providing redundancies will be very costly initially (Possibly $B's not accounted for) and will probably only be cost-neutral after the first 2 years.
This might mean targeting greater numbers which is more expensive short term, but will provide greater dividends over the medium/long term.

The big issue will be in cutting a large number in a relatively short period of time. If they decide to spread it out over a few years then that will be a different story.

Edit: I double checked, and its actually 6000 by June 2014, and 12,000 by Sep 2015.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/abbott-to-axe-jobs-within-weeks-20130828-2sr51.html

 

[Jamie M]

Yep I agree - but all markets are speculative - nothing is guaranteed.

I'm not too concerned about the Canberra market and I'm looking forward to getting back into it soon - but that's just me, others will disagree...and that's fine too

Cheers

Jamie

 

[geoffw]

While I don't see big growth in Canberra in the shorter term, I don't see big problems.

.Not all the job losses will be in Canberra- perhaps only half of the people losing jobs will be from Canberra. There will be losses in the other capitals, and in service centres around the country- there had been planning for several years to cut staff in some departments around the country.
.A number of people will be getting good payouts from their voluntary redundancies.
.Canberra has a bigger private enterprise than it did once. Cutbacks in the 90s had a smaller effect on the local economy than the 80s. More people went into private enterprise.