Max profit within 2 months - Which stock?

[china]

All the prices are up and down on a daily basis,imho it's the out of nowhere events that drive the market short term,that's what i watch for ,and depending on the entry numbers from 1.36 over a 8 week span then walk away after tax
in the 1.90 range is very good,i prefer high risk low end banks..

I bought BOQ for about 9.95 some time ago. Do you think I will ever get my money back?

 

[wobbycarly]

I bought BOQ for about 9.95 some time ago. Do you think I will ever get my money back?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPblBARyRyw

 

[china]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPblBARyRyw

Why never?

 

[wobbycarly]

Why never?

Maybe I should have put a .

But with any individual stock, if it's dropped, there's NO guarantee it'll ever come back. But I don't know anything about BOQ, so it could just be "oversold" and massively below value.

 

[tvadera]

Hi,

I am starting out in stocks world and thinking of going in with QBE as my first bet..

Price looks good and is favoured by brokers and funds managers:

 

[MIW]

Today it's 1.15. Sentiment is as much important in stocks as fundamentals. Which is why I'm not a big fan of Buffett's style unless you

a) seriously have a long-term view;
b) identify something immensely cheap (if something falls from, to use a simple metric, 9x PE to 7x PE, is that cheap? Maybe 7x PE is still a lot).. but there obviously comes a point when you say OMG THIS IS A BARGAIN, such as 0.5x PE, cash greater than market cap, no debt, no capex blah blah blah (if you find a stock like that let me know I'll go all in)

and my point c) is that I invest into a stock where I personally know the CEO or founder of the company....

 

[Risky Business]

2 months? Maybe this one will be in 6 months.
If you want a wild emotional ride give BCC a go. Us shareholders have been smashed but the company is about to sail a big oil rig into Alaska.

My pirate cap is back on and I'm getting ready for another ride.

 

[willair]

2 months? Maybe this one will be in 6 months.
If you want a wild emotional ride give BCC a go. Us shareholders have been smashed but the company is about to sail a big oil rig into Alaska.

My pirate cap is back on and I'm getting ready for another ride.

BUCCANEER ENERGY LIMITED (BCC)

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120724/pdf/427krncsk7yd06.pdf

 

[china]

my woolworths shares have gone up to over 28. I bought in at 26.5 about a year or so ago. Will it hit 30?

 

[willair]

my woolworths shares have gone up to over 28. I bought in at 26.5 about a year or so ago. Will it hit 30?

I would not have a clue,i shop at Aldi,i'm more interested in the small parcel of CBA I took a risK on just after the GFC,their up over 1 buck
so far today,the big $60.oo is not that far away now..

 

[china]

I would not have a clue,i shop at Aldi,i'm more interested in the small parcel of CBA I took a risK on just after the GFC,their up over 1 buck
so far today,the big $60.oo is not that far away now..

My impression is that CBA is a good share to buy purely from a customer's viewpoint. I have been banking with them for over 20 years and their customer service just keeps getting better. They handle your query rapidly, politely and get back to you when they say they will. At the branches, they are also very efficient. I have noticed this in the past few years and it reflects very well on their management. At the next dip, I will try to get back in to cba. I regret not buying some during the recent eurozone crisis.

 

[oracle]

My impression is that CBA is a good share to buy purely from a customer's viewpoint. I have been banking with them for over 20 years and their customer service just keeps getting better. They handle your query rapidly, politely and get back to you when they say they will. At the branches, they are also very efficient. I have noticed this in the past few years and it reflects very well on their management. At the next dip, I will try to get back in to cba. I regret not buying some during the recent eurozone crisis.

CBA generates the best ROE (Return on Equity) among the big 4 and therefore has always traded atleast at 10% premium to it's peers when you look at all the fundamentals ratios.

Today it hit a 2.5 year high around $57. Less than 12 months ago it was trading at $42 something. That's a 35% variation in price for the second largest company on ASX worth around $90B. The funny thing is the same ppl who said CBA is not worth buying at $42 as it was going down will suddenly change their opinion and recommend buying it at $57 when in my opinion it's too expensive and should be avoided until lower price can be obtained.

Out of the top ASX companies I think BHP is good value at current prices, but ofcourse everyone will say don't buy BHP, China is slowing down, iron ore prices are falling whereas the same ppl recommended buying BHP at $45.

I had a very bad experience with following analyst recommendation. Bought Cochlear for under $50 bucks few months ago when they recalled one of their products, one of the analyst reports suggested selling with price target of $45. So I hesitantly sold out at $55 thinking brokers analysis must be more accurate than mine, only to see the stock trading at $65 today.

Another stock I own Mortgage Choice mainly for dividends bought in low $1.30s after the half yearly results which I didn't think to be bad had the same broker downgrade to sell with price target of $1.15. Luckily, I ignored and trusted my own research and today stock is trading at $1.46. I am not suggesting Mortgage Choice can't go down in price, but I think it doesn't benefit much to follow analyst recommendations. Use their research material as that can be invaluable but form your own judgements.

(PS: Do your own research, I am not advising anyone to buy or sell any particular stock)

Cheers,
Oracle.

 

[china]

CBA generates the best ROE (Return on Equity) among the big 4 and therefore has always traded atleast at 10% premium to it's peers when you look at all the fundamentals ratios.

Today it hit a 2.5 year high around $57. Less than 12 months ago it was trading at $42 something. That's a 35% variation in price for the second largest company on ASX worth around $90B. The funny thing is the same ppl who said CBA is not worth buying at $42 as it was going down will suddenly change their opinion and recommend buying it at $57 when in my opinion it's too expensive and should be avoided until lower price can be obtained.

Out of the top ASX companies I think BHP is good value at current prices, but ofcourse everyone will say don't buy BHP, China is slowing down, iron ore prices are falling whereas the same ppl recommended buying BHP at $45.

.

I agree with you about CBA. On the technical indicators, I think we need to wait for a fallback to 51 before further safe entry.

Why do you think bhp is good value at present? The graph shows a downward trend and the fundamentals are against it.

 

[Corey Batt]

CBA generates the best ROE (Return on Equity) among the big 4 and therefore has always traded atleast at 10% premium to it's peers when you look at all the fundamentals ratios.

Today it hit a 2.5 year high around $57. Less than 12 months ago it was trading at $42 something. That's a 35% variation in price for the second largest company on ASX worth around $90B. The funny thing is the same ppl who said CBA is not worth buying at $42 as it was going down will suddenly change their opinion and recommend buying it at $57 when in my opinion it's too expensive and should be avoided until lower price can be obtained.

Out of the top ASX companies I think BHP is good value at current prices, but ofcourse everyone will say don't buy BHP, China is slowing down, iron ore prices are falling whereas the same ppl recommended buying BHP at $45.

I had a very bad experience with following analyst recommendation. Bought Cochlear for under $50 bucks few months ago when they recalled one of their products, one of the analyst reports suggested selling with price target of $45. So I hesitantly sold out at $55 thinking brokers analysis must be more accurate than mine, only to see the stock trading at $65 today.

Another stock I own Mortgage Choice mainly for dividends bought in low $1.30s after the half yearly results which I didn't think to be bad had the same broker downgrade to sell with price target of $1.15. Luckily, I ignored and trusted my own research and today stock is trading at $1.46. I am not suggesting Mortgage Choice can't go down in price, but I think it doesn't benefit much to follow analyst recommendations. Use their research material as that can be invaluable but form your own judgements.

(PS: Do your own research, I am not advising anyone to buy or sell any particular stock)

Cheers,
Oracle.

Oracle have you been sneaking looks at my portfolio?

I'm a fan of MOC shares and been accumulating CBA for some time, average buy in at $44. Don't have any exposure to BHP however..

I should think there will be a significant pull-back on CBA, with prices coming back to $51-53 for some time to come.

My punt on something to watch: RDR over the next 8 months should be very interesting.

 

[china]

Oracle have you been sneaking looks at my portfolio?

I'm a fan of MOC shares and been accumulating CBA for some time, average buy in at $44. Don't have any exposure to BHP however..

I should think there will be a significant pull-back on CBA, with prices coming back to $51-53 for some time to come.

My punt on something to watch: RDR over the next 8 months should be very interesting.

So will you enter more CBA at 51?

 

[Corey Batt]

All extra funds for this time are earmarked for the wedding in 7 months.

But assuming it was just a question of whether I think it would be of value to enter at that point, I think there is strong potential for dips to go significantly below this level. With this in mind, I think there are better places to put my money until such opportunities present themselves.

The acid test for my share investing is to assess whether the swings are due to value based attributes, or speculative reasons. In both cases, if the share falls low enough due to speculative fear, or an over-devaluation, I take this as a signal to buy. My view is that the short term growth with CBA is a speculative play being fed by T/A feedback. When this peters out, price will collapse to until it meets a break-point from the fundamental investors. The question is whether this break-point is significantly lower than $51.

The usual, this is not financial advice, merely an opinion. I can most definitely be wrong.

 

[willair]

So will you enter more CBA at 51?

What happens if it goes above the big$60.00 mark,then greed always overtakes fear plus CBA has taken a 4 year span to come back from below the danger zone$30.00 when everyone thought the world was going to end and we would all be living in caves again,this is only my opinion from experience on having been in CBA from the float in the mid 1990's still remenber the day i signed the paper work,never ever taken a div cheque reinvested everything every time,I know people who bought into the float
and have retired on the fullyfranked cheque that goes in the letter box 2 times a year,you either watch it happen-talk about it happening-or make it happen,just draw a line in the sand and work out which camp you want to be in,very very simple..
"imho"

 

[china]

What happens if it goes above the big$60.00 mark,then greed always overtakes fear plus CBA has taken a 4 year span to come back from below the danger zone$30.00 when everyone thought the world was going to end and we would all be living in caves again,this is only my opinion from experience on having been in CBA from the float in the mid 1990's still remenber the day i signed the paper work,never ever taken a div cheque reinvested everything every time,I know people who bought into the float
and have retired on the fullyfranked cheque that goes in the letter box 2 times a year,you either watch it happen-talk about it happening-or make it happen,just draw a line in the sand and work out which camp you want to be in,very very simple..
"imho"

So what is your entry point for cba?

 

[willair]

So what is your entry point for cba?

I don't have too,the reinvest set-up buys back in 2 times a year the price time is not important anymore , because componding on componding is a animal that no-one controls,it took me many years to understand that simple fact,,Mr Market is there 24/7 worldwide and the market is always the King it alone decides who wins or who ends up in the gutter as so many found in the GFC,..IMHO..

 

[oracle]

So will you enter more CBA at 51?

Probably start buying around $47 and keep buying more if it keeps fallings at interval of 5% or more until the cash runs out.

Why do you think bhp is good value at present? The graph shows a downward trend and the fundamentals are against it.

Based on current fundamental ratios.

BHP earned about $22B (Net Profit After Tax) last Financial Year. At todays prices you can buy the whole company for $170B. So that is trading at P/E of about 7.72. It has a lazy $10B sitting in its bank accounts. Although, it has long term debt of about $11B. BHP can payoff it's debt using the cash in the bank. Not many companies are in position to payoff it's debt as and when it pleases. No wonder few months ago when BHP went shopping to borrow it could borrow money cheaper than the Australian Government bond rates and we are talking about a Government that is rated AAA. Goes to show that Investors think their money is more safer with BHP than the Australian Government. OUCH!

So you may ask why is it trading at multi-year lows? Well because market thinks China (the country and not you ) is going to have a hard lending. They are going to stop growing which will drive down BHP's export earnings in particular iron ore.

People who have been to China and travel there often don't think China is going to have a hard lending. So basically at the end of the day its all got to do with what you think will happen in China and the world in general. Is the world going to need more iron ore, natural gas, coal, copper, petroleum in 5-10years time than it is needing now? If you think it will than BHP will do just fine, but if you think world will require less of the above commodities than BHP is in serious trouble.

I believe in the former scenario and since BHP is the lowest cost producer of most of the commodities it produces (For eg. BHP costs to produce 1 ton of iron ore is $40 bucks). Current spot price is at $120 and the highest it has been is $187. BHP ships over 150 million tons per year . Also, it has mines with over 40-50 years of mine life remaining.

Hence, I think the best days of BHP will be in the future.

Cheers,
Oracle.