Media, how are we suppose to get any idea?

[meconium]

Yeh sorry I do overcomplicate things.

The daily feed of misleading news does not help. I can't blame you.

I see you are in Perth and it is one city where low-status bargains are starting to emerge. For barely $250,000 you can get a rentable old house on a development sized block in places like Kenwick, Kwinana, Parmelia, Armadale. Some of the deals are quite compelling.....situations where you can retain the existing home and build at the back. That's unbeatable!

Yes, people will snigger when you buy these cheapies. You will spend a few weekends painting and clearing gardens. You may even have a few bad tenants. But you'll be sitting pretty in a few years while the rest of the crowd followers are bemoaning the poor state of the world economy and the fact that their overpriced inner-city junk hasn't gone up in price.

Good luck. Stay positive - the world isn't about to end anytime soon.

 

[Aaron Sice]

The daily feed of misleading news does not help. I can't blame you.

I see you are in Perth and it is one city where low-status bargains are starting to emerge. For barely $250,000 you can get a rentable old house on a development sized block in places like Kenwick, Kwinana, Parmelia, Armadale. Some of the deals are quite compelling.....situations where you can retain the existing home and build at the back. That's unbeatable!

Yes, people will snigger when you buy these cheapies. You will spend a few weekends painting and clearing gardens. You may even have a few bad tenants. But you'll be sitting pretty in a few years while the rest of the crowd followers are bemoaning the poor state of the world economy and the fact that their overpriced inner-city junk hasn't gone up in price.

Good luck. Stay positive - the world isn't about to end anytime soon.

again, as an eastsider, be careful how you comment.

the train stations you mention are only adding value in Kelmscott.

the other areas you mention have been in a glut BEFORE the GFC and remain so. there's so much stock on the market that rents have fallen in line with values.

the only way to make money out of this market is with a brand new 4x2 double garage on a subdivided lot that i have seen.

closer to Kelmscott though, the new MD Codes open up a world of opportunity.

 

[evand]

The national economy affects property prices nationally. Interest rates are a national thing. When they go up the whole market splutters a bit.

This markets in markets is a myth IMO.

Re Japan, the whole property market is down compared to say 15-20 years ago. A few blips on the radar don't really count.

It is unwise to paint all Australian property with the same negative brush, as many people seek to do.



I spend a fair amount of time in Japan and, respectfully, I disagree with what you say. Barely two decades ago, Japan was a huge property bubble. The market has since deflated, as happens to all bubbles - be they property, stocks, tulips or commodities.

Contrary to what you say, micro-markets do not always move in unison. Certain parts of major cities in Japan have seen significant price rises over the last two years. And other parts have fallen even further into the abyss. Still other parts have been levitated up by property spruikers who are into the ski-holiday business. Nothing seems to be moving in unison.

 

[random]

Yeah I agree with ya on all that evan. Especially when it comes to rates or slow downs ,it's definitely pain across the spectrum.

 

[Aaron Sice]

This markets in markets is a myth IMO.

maybe in your market, but not in others'.

i can't agree with this no matter how much i think about it - i can find different markets inside individual suburbs.

 

[random]

I suppose though personally , the way I see it generally is that yeah some spots might still do ok in slow times but you can still see the pinch, they'd be doing much more in prime times

Ahwell.

 

[wisty]

The national economy affects property prices nationally. Interest rates are a national thing. When they go up the whole market splutters a bit.

This markets in markets is a myth IMO.

Re Japan, the whole property market is down compared to say 15-20 years ago. A few blips on the radar don't really count.

Yeeeeah, if the banks start tightening up, then the whole market will tend to move down. If the RBA changes rates, the whole market will move.

But there will always be places that get hit harder by a fall (Detroit, $1 houses), or hold up OK.

And there's always houses that are better value than average - forced sales, owner who doesn't know its value, needs a coat of paint, gentrifying suburb, whatever. And lots of houses that are terrible value (maintenance issues, bad neighbourhood, etc). The housing market isn't like the share market - lots of amateurs make really obvious mistakes.

 

[evand]

Its very unlikely falling volume levels precede a rise in price of anything as it reduces demand.

Thats why falling volume precedes falling prices as falling volume usually means less demand.

Falling volume only points to a turning point it does not give an indication of price direction.

 

[tom32]

Its very unlikely falling volume levels precede a rise in price of anything as it reduces demand.

Thats why falling volume precedes falling prices as falling volume usually means less demand.

I am not speaking specifically of the housing market.

In all things a drop off in volume only points to a turning point. It means at the current price demand is failing to meet supply or and this is important supply is failing to meet demand. I know that sounds like a tautology but you need to attack it in your own mind both ways. The results are different.

i.e. no one will buy at current prices.

or

everyone refuses to sell at current prices.

It could be either up or down but it won't be as is, i.e. the often quoted we expect it to track sideways is not what I think will happen when nothing is selling at current prices.

You have to look at other information in combination with the falling volume to decide which direction prices will go next.

Looking at stock levels it is not looking good at least where I am, though I want to see what happens this month as there does appear to be some turnaround (for the better) on a Perth wide level. My local area is certainly not seeing it yet. It is about to crack 400 homes for sale in a population of 8000. now true its a new build area but they have never had that many for sale! (Oh and that number excludes the developers own sales.)

 

[BayView]

Falling volumes is an indicator; the sentiment is low.

People aren't putting their houses on the market because they feel they won't sell at a price they want.

So they wait.

If volumes are down, and there are loads of buyers, you have a low supply, high demand scenario, which forces prices up, but this aint happening.

 

[TKline]

Barely two decades ago, Japan was a huge property bubble. The market has since deflated, as happens to all bubbles - be they property, stocks, tulips or commodities.

True and now Australia's got an equally unsustainable and large property bubble. The good news is its already started bursting in most places.

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

Australia's property bubble is as large as Japan's was? Really?