Melbourne prices after July 1st?

[SpaceMan]

Perhaps it is a little early to tell but does anyone have a feeling for how Melbourne prices have been effected by the changes to the FHOG?

I am actually looking with my daughter for her first PPOR in the outer eastern area, Kilsyth, Boronia and surrounds. Probably a newish 2 bed unit, the sort of thing that I could imagine might be impacted by the loss of the FHOG on established properties.

It's early days yet but when we first looked about 2 months ago there were some very busy open houses. Her search was then all put on hold while finances were assessed and holidays taken but the last couple of weekends it seems like the opens are much quieter. I'm not sure I have seen any change in the advertised prices but I suspect most vendors are hoping the market hasn't dropped.

I'm curious as to what impact the FHOG changes have made. Any thoughts?

 

[one world]

No fear. People need houses and intelligent human beings are generally loath to rent. Melbourne's population is rising, there is nothing to fear.

I remember when they abolished negative gearing in 1987. Everyone said it would be the end of the property market. Yet, property surged the next year and kept going for 3 years until Paul Keating's "recession we had to have' arrived.

In hindsight, not even a blip on the radar.

 

[TomW]

No fear. People need houses and intelligent human beings are generally loath to rent. Melbourne's population is rising, there is nothing to fear.

I remember when they abolished negative gearing in 1987. Everyone said it would be the end of the property market. Yet, property surged the next year and kept going for 3 years until Paul Keating's "recession we had to have' arrived.

In hindsight, not even a blip on the radar.

This makes the drek that comes from the REIV look convincing.

 

[Deltaberry]

Winter. School holiday. No stock. Boring market.

 

[SpaceMan]

There was no fear involved in the question, I'm a firm believer in property as an investment. It is more to do with judging the level of activity in the market and how to respond when the RE agents roll out "comparable properties". As I mentioned, my personal feeling is that it is much quieter now than 2 months ago but of course it is winter now so maybe everyone except the genuine buyers are at home watching the footy.

 

[luce.rocks]

Wow, Spaceman, member since 2004 and only 3 posts? And two of those here. You are a super-lurker!

 

[SpaceMan]

Those were the days when I was trying to decide if and how I would buy an IP. But like many things, once you jump in it turns out to be easier than you thought. I spent a LOT of time on here reading hundreds of posts and rarely couldn't find the answer to a question if I went looking so didn't need to post.

 

[ermat]

The market I'm following, (Point Cook) appears to have less listings as expected for this time of year, also noticeable is good property is selling. Prices appear stable with maybe a slightly upward bias.
I think how the market performs in spring will be the real test.

 

[Deltaberry]

Outer suburbs have no doubt lagged in the current run. Booming in inner ring.

 

[MelbGal]

In the fhob areas I'm sure you might see it less frantic but demand will still be there for those looking. Also need to consider that the stamp duty concessions have increased again from July 1st and will increase again until they reach 50%

http://www.sro.vic.gov.au/sro/SROna...578B70001025018E490D796850F8ECA2575C1008187C7

 

[SpaceMan]

Thanks all. It will be interesting to see over the next few weeks how the market adjusts, if at all, to the FHOG changes. So far it sounds as though it is too early to pick it for sure.

 

[Bigtone]

There will be less people at opens as there was certainly a fhog frenzy. The market will be strong though for at least another 4-5 months as the build up of investors demand needs to be satisfied.

I was saying before june 30th that many investors were being beaten by first home buyers at auctions and now they are out of the market the investors will be securing the properties.

Speaking to an BA and he had missed 14 out of last 15 auction prior to july 1 and has bought 6 since July 1 now the market is not quite so heated. It will take months to work through the number of investors out there who are currently looking to buy. What happens after that not sure but likely to continue to move up for a while at least.