Moranbah Dysart

S

strongy1986

The property market in these towns has been absolutely trashed in the last year. I feel sorry for the people who invested in these towns at the top of the market.

Having said that does the current weak coal price represent a good buying opportunity? Coal will still be in demand for power generation for years to come (whilst gas slowly takes over....)

I'm fairly sure you could pick up a 3 bdr weatherboard place in these towns for around 250k maybe even less if you wait longer ( probably be mortgagee sales).

I'm also fairly sure that when the coal price is back up these towns will once again be bursting at the seams. Assuming the developers havn't wreaked their oversupply havock.

I think the lesson is here, always buy before the boom so that you are coming from a low buy in point and don't have the magic carpet pulled out from underneath you.
What has probably made it worse is that not only are a lot of the miners gone but also the former residents who took the money and ran for greener pastures. Also add on to it the developers building homes that are no longer needed and it makes for a sorry tail.

Anyone else have thoughts
 
I think you're 250k is a touch low unless there is another dramatic short fall some where in the coal industry. Might get lucky but coal isn't "suppose to spike again till 2018" at least that's what my old boss is being told to preach.
 
Dubstep said:
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Does anyone have any news on Blackwater, I heard a whisper of mine closure ??

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Click to expand...

I got family there, heard nothing of curragh or BMA closing, doubt yarabee is since that just got taken over last year.

Edit: Just called the old man, he says BMA has taken a pretty big hit but nothing around town about a closure.
 
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That's good, There have been enough closures and downsizing.

Please let us know if you hear any unwanted news.

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strongy1986 said:
The property market in these towns has been absolutely trashed in the last year. I feel sorry for the people who invested in these towns at the top of the market.

Having said that does the current weak coal price represent a good buying opportunity? Coal will still be in demand for power generation for years to come (whilst gas slowly takes over....)

I'm fairly sure you could pick up a 3 bdr weatherboard place in these towns for around 250k maybe even less if you wait longer ( probably be mortgagee sales).

I'm also fairly sure that when the coal price is back up these towns will once again be bursting at the seams. Assuming the developers havn't wreaked their oversupply havock.

I think the lesson is here, always buy before the boom so that you are coming from a low buy in point and don't have the magic carpet pulled out from underneath you.
What has probably made it worse is that not only are a lot of the miners gone but also the former residents who took the money and ran for greener pastures. Also add on to it the developers building homes that are no longer needed and it makes for a sorry tail.

Anyone else have thoughts
Click to expand...

Mrs Dubs and I were looking to rent in Moranbah about 5 months ago and we were surprised at how much the rents had come down from the peak prices of a few of years ago, we negotiated the nicest house on the market to rent from $ 600 down to $ 500 and the owners accepted our offer without bartering.

I ended up taking another position in the Surat basin instead, but whilst we were up there, I asked one agent how many of there landlords were doing it tough, she said that 9 of there clients had had there houses repossessed by the banks, and that was only one agent I asked.

I wonder how many houses in the town were actually lost back to the banks ?

.
 
I would think quite a few as many would of reinvested their cash flow elsewhere when they should of been stockpiling it because the good rents don't last forever and will come in cycles

Deuce if they are trying to rent a house for 100 a week in Dysart it's pretty fair to say investors won't be buying there and prices may come back quite a bit as the locals won't pay up when they don't need to.
 
I think you are right Ben...there is a lot to like about coals fundamentals especially when you take into consideration countries like China and India whose populations are massive and moving towards middle class status.

I've got a couple of properties in Emerald and experienced some good growth recently. The market got pretty hot towards the middle of last year and people were purchasing above market value in the rush to get in however, then Gregory shut up and with the companies tightening their belts and extra supply of property from the developers the market cooled. Rents came off the boil as properties vacated and at the moment it's a soft market. Those who purchased at the top of the market certainly won't be getting the CF returns they were hoping for at the moment.

I still believe strongly in the fundamentals and know there is some mammoth projects in the region to come including those in the Galilee Basin.

The market will swing around with these projects and away we go again. I prefer the relative safety of Emerald which is a regional hub but you can make some serious money I guess in these smaller towns like Dysart, Moranbah and Blackwater but you just have to time your entry and exit.

Jack
 
strongy1986 said:
Deuce if they are trying to rent a house for 100 a week in Dysart it's pretty fair to say investors won't be buying there and prices may come back quite a bit as the locals won't pay up when they don't need to.
Click to expand...

Dysart yea it has been pillage, Lake Vermont has on-site camp oops "Villages". With Norwich closure and saraji east being knocked back I'm sure the prices will drop a lot. I find the trend is moving in the way the west is, with so much hate from the locals on what FIFO does to the poor towns its just easier to build a camp. If they are right and 2018 is the next big boom then I'm sure prices in every town will been coming down by the bucket load but will they go up?.

Another factor you may or may not be aware of just food for thought I may be totally wrong.

Back in the 80's it was 3 shifts a day, airplane travel wasn't anything like today. So between the 90's boom and the 2005 boom you have a dramatic shift in social structure of the mining industry. Now people are willing to travel 1hr to and from work in Brisbane making that 9to5 8to6. The fact of living in a village/camp/dogbox is now the normal thing for workers. FIFO is not some evil beast that destroys every family that is apart of it.

The camps give more flexibility to the companies because they can put whoever they want in the rooms. Curragh owns a good 3rd of blackwater I reckon, yet they have 50+ houses empty so 200 rooms they cannot access because only Curragh employed people with families are given them. I'd say under 5 people out of 40 on my crew lived with families in town. So its mostly office staff that had the family houses because of their 5/2 rosters (they got shifted to rockhampton so now its just the bosses).

So from this latest boom you have FIFO/DIDO being a huge key player, 6 camps were built in the past 7 years in Blackwater I don't know the capacities but I will get a approx number of 2.5k rooms so rotating shifts thats 5k workers. If they feel like it they can hot sheet rooms that's 10k worker capacity this style was just coming into norm in 2011/12.

Now if BMA and Curragh go back into full swing and without bringing in more contractors they wont max out the camps anymore. I believe Yarrabee and Jellinbah who were major players in the rental market are also moving into the camps now. It also only takes about 6 months of building to get a 500 room camp up and the planning would start before they need it.

Just something to look at I guess but I personally don't see the next boom over-taxing any town that allows camps on-site or in town to be built. Just look at alpha and you see the future. I think the days of 1000 a week for a 3/1/1 are gone 500 is see-able. So the strategy would have to change sadly it would be stupid for me to get into that market as a bust would just hit me too hard.

Like you said emerald is a hub and its got more then just mining going for it, Hope they expand the airport.

Edit: I'm not saying there wont be nice profits any more in mining towns just that thinking it will go up just because a new mine is opening or a boom is on may not be the case anymore.

Edit2: BMA have cut the rental assistance from 800 to 400 and are building their own camp after that's complete there will be no more rent assistance

Yarrabee and Jill are building their own camp on site as well.
 
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Camps

ill have to agree. Camps have put a massive dint on housing demand. I had been living in a camp at Dysart for the last 8 month but have now moved to a camp in Moranbah.

Little info i got,
Im working at Caval Ridge. New mine getting built just out of Moranbah. This mine has built its own camp called Buffal Park, So when operational plan is everyone will stay there. Caval is also going to be 100% FIFO so they say.

There has Been a Big expansion at Dysart mac camp just finished. A MASSIVE expansion at Coppabella mac.

I cant see prices getting back where they were. Still could be money to be made and Im happy to take a bit of a risky investment. But wouldn't touch Moranbah or Dysart for the reason id be worried about having a house sitting there vacant for 12+months.
 
as mentioned many of the coal mines have onsite camps

it is the gas companies (arrow, origin etc) that rent/ buy houses in these towns as their projects are more liquid and a camp dosent suit their workers needs
 
sports fan said:
as mentioned many of the coal mines have onsite camps

it is the gas companies (arrow, origin etc) that rent/ buy houses in these towns as their projects are more liquid and a camp dosent suit their workers needs
Click to expand...

You can rent a camp room by the night just like a hotel these days. I once moved camps 3 times in one year with the same company and same town. Short term contracts are a normal thing, its a business after all they wont turn away revenue.

The only people gas,coal,iron,gold whatever the resource is, that are going to be renting houses in the future are families that want the parent home every night. That number in coal is few but people still choose that lifestyle, its nice to come home to the girlfriend every night.

  • So you need to look for low camp numbers or overcapacity(already boom so too late in most cases)
  • what the type of roster that they are on.
  • If the company owns housing in the town.
 
Dubstep said:
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Hi Dec,

I think your search is including surrounding suburbs.

Cheers.

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Click to expand...

Funny stuff, surrounding suburbs of Moranbah are what? ;)
But you are right sort of, page 10 goes onto Dysart which is another town entirely 83klms away

Thanks
 
sports fan said:
as mentioned many of the coal mines have onsite camps

it is the gas companies (arrow, origin etc) that rent/ buy houses in these towns as their projects are more liquid and a camp dosent suit their workers needs
Click to expand...
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Hi Sports Fan,

I'm working on a gas project in the Surat basin, and the Gas company here has built a 1000 man camp, it has been at capacity for some time, and there are also plenty of staff staying in hotels/motels in town.

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Dysart

Just looked on R/E.com and saw the house in Dysart that we sold a few yrs ago back on the market for just 10K more than we sold it-should wait for it to drop back another $100k then buy it back. Cheers Bullfrog
 
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